ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Actually, low level easterly winds across the central to eastern Caribbean are relatively light for this time of year (closer to 15 kts).

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021605
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 05 20120802
155700 1719N 06354W 5293 05438 0287 -045 //// 099010 010 015 000 05
155730 1718N 06351W 5231 05524 0286 -051 //// 099012 012 015 000 01
155800 1717N 06349W 5143 05658 0293 -062 //// 104013 013 015 000 01
155830 1716N 06346W 5069 05771 0300 -071 //// 105013 014 017 000 01
155900 1715N 06344W 5015 05856 0305 -077 //// 107013 015 017 000 01
155930 1714N 06342W 4960 05940 0307 -084 //// 105015 016 018 000 01
160000 1713N 06339W 4868 06084 0313 -093 //// 097015 015 017 000 01
160030 1712N 06337W 4796 06199 0321 -094 //// 088014 014 017 000 01
160100 1711N 06335W 4738 06297 0328 -094 //// 081013 014 016 000 01
160130 1710N 06333W 4667 06409 0332 -092 //// 071012 013 016 000 01
160200 1709N 06330W 4592 06535 0340 -090 //// 064012 012 017 000 05
160230 1708N 06328W 4503 06686 0347 -097 //// 058012 012 018 000 01
160300 1707N 06326W 4429 06810 0361 -096 //// 063011 011 018 000 01
160330 1706N 06324W 4336 06975 0365 -107 //// 072013 014 019 000 01
160400 1705N 06322W 4253 07125 0376 -117 //// 072015 016 018 000 01
160430 1704N 06320W 4181 07263 0393 -128 //// 076017 018 017 000 01
160500 1703N 06318W 4131 07353 0398 -133 //// 080017 018 017 000 05
160530 1702N 06316W 4102 07405 0402 -136 //// 083016 016 018 000 01
160600 1701N 06314W 4094 07422 0402 -140 //// 083017 017 018 000 05
160630 1700N 06312W 4098 07414 0401 -140 //// 085017 017 018 000 01
$$
;

[RL3AO]

[gatorcane]

Here's another look, 12Z GFS, look at all of the lows behind it

[cycloneye]

Actually, low level easterly winds across the central to eastern Caribbean are relatively light for this time of year (closer to 15 kts).

That is very interesting as the Colombian low that is always in that area creates strong trades.

[Dave]

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS showing big UL anticyclone over the Cayman Islands in 120 hours.... Would may scary intensification set up if TD 5 remains intact.

[CajunMama]

i am late to this thread but are there any resources predicting potential landfall locations yet? tia.

I would suggest for you and others to read the previous posts in here and getting background info before jumping in and asking questions. You will probably find most of your answers already discussed.

[RL3AO]

144hr. You can see the anti cyclonic flow around the system that fish was talking about.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021616
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 06 20120802
160700 1659N 06310W 4097 07415 0400 -140 //// 082018 019 018 000 05
160730 1658N 06308W 4098 07410 0398 -140 //// 081018 019 019 000 01
160800 1657N 06306W 4098 07409 0397 -140 //// 078018 019 020 000 01
160830 1656N 06303W 4097 07411 0396 -140 //// 076018 019 020 000 01
160900 1655N 06301W 4098 07408 0396 -143 //// 077018 019 018 000 01
160930 1654N 06259W 4098 07408 0395 -144 //// 081019 019 018 000 01
161000 1653N 06256W 4099 07404 0394 -141 //// 083019 019 019 000 05
161030 1652N 06254W 4098 07405 0393 -144 //// 083019 020 020 000 01
161100 1651N 06251W 4099 07401 0393 -140 //// 085020 020 019 000 01
161130 1649N 06249W 4099 07403 0393 -140 //// 087019 019 018 000 01
161200 1648N 06247W 4098 07404 0393 -140 //// 090018 019 019 000 01
161230 1647N 06244W 4102 07398 0393 -140 //// 089017 017 018 000 01
161300 1646N 06242W 4098 07404 0393 -140 //// 091017 017 018 000 01
161330 1645N 06239W 4101 07400 0395 -140 //// 096016 016 018 000 01
161400 1644N 06237W 4098 07412 0400 -140 //// 098017 017 018 000 01
161430 1643N 06235W 4098 07415 0402 -140 //// 095018 018 018 000 01
161500 1642N 06232W 4100 07412 0403 -140 //// 088019 019 018 000 01
161530 1640N 06230W 4099 07411 0402 -140 //// 096018 018 017 000 01
161600 1639N 06227W 4101 07412 0403 -137 //// 089018 018 017 000 01
161630 1638N 06225W 4102 07407 0402 -139 -203 093019 019 014 000 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

162hr - Landfall near Cancun.

[wxman57]

Actually, low level easterly winds across the central to eastern Caribbean are relatively light for this time of year (closer to 15 kts).

That is very interesting as the Colombian low that is always in that area creates strong trades.

"Normally", the eastern Caribbean is considered the graveyard for TCs due to an acceleration of easterly trades that is typically found there (20-25 kts vs. 15-20 east of the Caribbean). The acceleration results in low-level divergence, causing TCs to weaken. Presently, that's not the case in the eastern Caribbean. Winds both outside and in the east Caribbean are in the 15 kt range now. No acceleration.

[Blown Away]

NW movement from 144 to 162 hours, very interesting!!

[ConvergenceZone]

The upper low to its north is "enhancing" the outflow on that side just a little TOO much, but that should be changing as the depression approaches the islands. Wind shear looks to be relatively light once it's in the Caribbean, which should allow for slow strengthening. I don't expect much impact on the islands. Could be a small area of TS winds on the north side, probably staying south of Guadeloupe, Gusty.

It could very well be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean next Tue/Wed and into the southern Gulf by late next Wed or early Thu. Won't venture any guess beyond then, as the models probably don't have the flow right that far out. Much will depend on how much the ridge to its north weakens early next week. Won't rule out an eventual impact anywhere at this time - from southern MX to the FL Panhandle. I think the FL Peninsula is probably not going to be impacted, as that ridge to the north should hold through Monday, regardless of how strong the storm becomes. (not saying the FL peninsula is 100% out of the woods yet, though).

Excellent analysis Wxman.....

[SouthDadeFish]

The anticyclone moves in tandem with it into GOMEX. Not good....

[gatorcane]

NW movement from 144 to 162 hours, very interesting!!

Yes that is what it looks like. Members can use the link below to see the model loop and this NW movement:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Ivanhater]

Looks like our first "Caribbean Cruiser" we have seen in a while.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021625
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 07 20120802
161700 1637N 06222W 4091 07427 0403 -136 -203 090017 018 018 000 00
161730 1636N 06220W 4101 07407 0402 -137 -203 090019 019 020 000 00
161800 1635N 06217W 4098 07412 0402 -135 -203 092018 018 020 001 00
161830 1634N 06215W 4105 07404 0402 -135 -203 093020 020 020 000 00
161900 1632N 06213W 4103 07406 0402 -135 -204 098020 020 020 000 00
161930 1631N 06210W 4102 07409 0403 -135 -204 102019 019 021 000 00
162000 1630N 06208W 4099 07413 0403 -136 -205 103020 020 021 000 00
162030 1629N 06205W 4099 07412 0403 -136 -205 102019 019 021 000 00
162100 1628N 06203W 4102 07406 0402 -136 -206 100018 019 021 000 03
162130 1627N 06201W 4105 07401 0401 -135 -207 101017 018 022 000 00
162200 1626N 06158W 4110 07393 0402 -135 -208 102017 017 022 000 03
162230 1625N 06156W 4115 07384 0401 -135 -208 104016 016 023 000 03
162300 1623N 06153W 4117 07382 0401 -135 -209 100016 016 024 000 03
162330 1622N 06151W 4118 07379 0400 -135 -209 096016 016 024 000 00
162400 1621N 06149W 4109 07394 0401 -135 -210 090018 020 028 000 03
162430 1620N 06146W 4101 07410 0403 -135 -209 086021 021 /// /// 03
162500 1619N 06144W 4105 07405 0403 -135 -210 087020 021 /// /// 03
162530 1618N 06141W 4109 07395 0402 -135 -210 090019 020 /// /// 03
162600 1617N 06139W 4114 07387 0401 -135 -210 089018 019 /// /// 03
162630 1615N 06137W 4117 07382 0401 -135 -210 089018 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

[ozonepete]

Looks like our first "Caribbean Cruiser" we have seen in a while.

Hey there, Mike. Yeah, looks pretty sure to go right up the middle and could quite possibly go thru the Yucatan Channel as a hurricane. Then these boards will light up like a Christmas tree, as you well know.

[RL3AO]

Western gulf. Starts to feel ridge over SW US and gains a more westerly movement.