ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

#921 Postby bella_may » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:34 pm

This thing is really starting to get its act back together today.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#922 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:34 pm

ROCK wrote:TreasureGirl that was a serious write up....nice way of putting things in perspective...a lot of variables...but I cannot disagree or agree because we have no model consensus. FL to MX right now and at what stength we dont know....


Personally, I don't know why anyone is trying to get this thing into the Gulf. It's not even in the Caribbean yet and there are people in the way of TD 5 to get into the Caribbean. Let's watch how TD 5 develops and look at the impacts in the islands...then work on the forecast for the Gulf.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#923 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:35 pm

I notice the 7-day in-house NHC forecast track is visible in the 12Z model package (OFCI). The 7-day point (7am CDT next Thursday) is on the northern Yucatan coast right about in the center of the peninsula. About 21.6N/88.4W. Not far from my 7-day point. Generally aiming toward NE MX or the TX coast. Of course, a lot will depend on just how weak the ridge is to the north next Mon-Wed. It could turn more northerly, or it could track farther west.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#924 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:36 pm

Does anyone know how to get recent images of the eastern Atlantic that are updated every 30 minutes, instead of the ones that are only updated every 6 hours?
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#925 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:39 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 021735
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20120802
172700 1402N 05705W 9773 00304 0116 +255 +129 031025 026 022 000 03
172730 1402N 05703W 9768 00308 0115 +255 +149 032025 026 024 000 03
172800 1402N 05702W 9767 00308 //// +251 //// 030024 025 024 000 05
172830 1402N 05700W 9773 00301 //// +255 //// 030027 028 022 000 01
172900 1402N 05659W 9771 00303 //// +255 //// 036026 027 019 000 05
172930 1402N 05657W 9770 00303 //// +255 //// 033027 027 022 001 01
173000 1402N 05656W 9773 00302 //// +255 //// 034027 028 023 000 01
173030 1402N 05654W 9771 00303 //// +256 //// 034027 029 025 000 01
173100 1402N 05653W 9770 00304 //// +257 //// 032028 029 026 000 01
173130 1402N 05651W 9769 00304 //// +257 //// 031027 027 025 001 01
173200 1402N 05650W 9768 00303 //// +256 //// 031026 027 023 001 01
173230 1402N 05649W 9776 00297 //// +257 //// 031028 028 025 000 01
173300 1402N 05647W 9772 00302 //// +258 //// 033028 029 025 000 01
173330 1402N 05647W 9772 00302 //// +257 //// 034028 030 025 000 05
173400 1403N 05644W 9767 00301 //// +256 //// 033026 027 025 000 01
173430 1403N 05643W 9774 00295 //// +256 //// 030028 031 024 000 05
173500 1403N 05641W 9769 00300 //// +257 //// 034029 030 020 002 01
173530 1403N 05640W 9770 00298 //// +255 //// 030027 028 022 001 01
173600 1403N 05638W 9776 00295 //// +256 //// 034027 028 030 005 01
173630 1404N 05637W 9780 00298 //// +225 //// 071032 034 033 018 01
$$
;
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#926 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:43 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Does anyone know how to get recent images of the eastern Atlantic that are updated every 30 minutes, instead of the ones that are only updated every 6 hours?


you talkin' about satellite? how about these loops?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html

and this:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#927 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:44 pm

From the satellite loops looks like it's going due west now, which will get it out from under the shear a little faster. Also looks to be getting better organized again.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#928 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:46 pm

33 kt SFMR in last pass. Just shy of tropical storm status.

At the low levels, I would say the SFMR is the best indicator - flight-level winds are notoriously variable at such.
0 likes   

TCmet
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 106
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: New York, NY
Contact:

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#929 Postby TCmet » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:47 pm

173630 1404N 05637W 9780 00298 //// +225 //// 071032 034 033 018 01


Recon has found SFMR winds of 33kts. Not quite enough to upgrade yet.
0 likes   

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#930 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:48 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Decomdoug
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Age: 72
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:34 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#931 Postby Decomdoug » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:49 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:
ROCK wrote:TreasureGirl that was a serious write up....nice way of putting things in perspective...a lot of variables...but I cannot disagree or agree because we have no model consensus. FL to MX right now and at what stength we dont know....


Personally, I don't know why anyone is trying to get this thing into the Gulf. It's not even in the Caribbean yet and there are people in the way of TD 5 to get into the Caribbean. Let's watch how TD 5 develops and look at the impacts in the islands...then work on the forecast for the Gulf.


The Butterfly effect comes into play on all the models after the first 12 hours or so. A very slight variation in the input data could make a difference of hundreds of miles three days out and that variation continues to expand the further out you go. "A butterfly flaps its wings in Hong Kong, disturbs the air currents, and three days later the forecast track goes out the window"

(sorry about the typo)
Last edited by Decomdoug on Thu Aug 02, 2012 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#932 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:49 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 021746
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20120802
173700 1404N 05636W 9765 00303 //// +217 //// 077033 035 035 015 01
173730 1405N 05635W 9776 00296 //// +234 //// 080036 037 031 005 01
173800 1405N 05633W 9765 00304 //// +233 //// 081034 035 030 003 05
173830 1405N 05632W 9774 00295 //// +237 //// 077032 032 /// /// 05
173900 1404N 05632W 9770 00298 //// +220 //// 078031 031 027 005 01
173930 1402N 05631W 9769 00296 //// +218 //// 077031 031 026 006 01
174000 1401N 05631W 9770 00295 //// +239 //// 073031 031 025 002 01
174030 1359N 05630W 9771 00294 //// +245 //// 066032 033 024 000 05
174100 1358N 05630W 9769 00295 //// +245 //// 062033 033 027 001 01
174130 1356N 05629W 9772 00292 //// +246 //// 062033 033 025 000 01
174200 1355N 05628W 9769 00292 //// +245 //// 063031 031 025 002 05
174230 1353N 05628W 9769 00292 //// +247 //// 063030 031 025 000 01
174300 1352N 05627W 9768 00295 //// +248 //// 061029 030 021 000 01
174330 1350N 05627W 9770 00291 //// +251 //// 062027 028 014 004 05
174400 1349N 05626W 9772 00289 //// +252 //// 058027 027 021 000 05
174430 1347N 05626W 9769 00290 //// +247 //// 050024 025 017 001 05
174500 1347N 05624W 9778 00281 //// +244 //// 048025 027 021 000 01
174530 1346N 05623W 9769 00290 //// +243 //// 049023 025 020 001 01
174600 1345N 05622W 9768 00291 //// +240 //// 046023 024 022 000 01
174630 1345N 05620W 9774 00285 //// +246 //// 051024 025 023 001 05
$$
;
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#933 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:50 pm

35 kt SFMR just now, seems reliable. I'd say we have Ernesto.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#934 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:50 pm

EURO coming out...of course WXMN57 gets it first since he is a paying customer.... :lol: Will post when it starts...
0 likes   

TCmet
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 106
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: New York, NY
Contact:

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#935 Postby TCmet » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:51 pm

TCmet wrote:
173630 1404N 05637W 9780 00298 //// +225 //// 071032 034 033 018 01


Recon has found SFMR winds of 33kts. Not quite enough to upgrade yet.


And now, a single measurement of 35kts. Although that is technically tropical storm force, they'll wait to see what else they find. This is only the first pass.

173700 1404N 05636W 9765 00303 //// +217 //// 077033 035 035 015 01
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#936 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:52 pm

what I'm interested in seeing is what the low-level flow looks like--there still seems to be some interaction with the ITCZ (the system to the southwest seems to almost be a separate system) and I'm thinking this could further limit development in the short term
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#937 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:52 pm

Visible Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Still appears to be moving west NW.

WV loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Latest Visible

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#938 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:53 pm

Upgrade immediately or wait until 5 (or a TCU) for more?
0 likes   

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#939 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:54 pm

Can someone pickup the HDOBS? I'll get the graphics as often as I can but have to leave for a few minutes.
0 likes   

TCmet
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 106
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: New York, NY
Contact:

Re:

#940 Postby TCmet » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Upgrade immediately or wait until 5 (or a TCU) for more?


They'll almost certainly wait until 5pm when the AF has finished the recon mission.
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests