ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

18z Models

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC THU AUG 2 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (AL052012) 20120802 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120802  1800   120803  0600   120803  1800   120804  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  55.6W   13.4N  58.9W   13.9N  62.1W   14.3N  65.3W
BAMD    12.8N  55.6W   13.3N  57.6W   13.9N  59.7W   14.6N  61.8W
BAMM    12.8N  55.6W   13.2N  58.1W   13.9N  60.7W   14.5N  63.4W
LBAR    12.8N  55.6W   12.8N  58.5W   12.9N  61.6W   13.1N  64.7W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          39KTS          45KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          39KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120804  1800   120805  1800   120806  1800   120807  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  68.7W   16.4N  75.8W   16.1N  81.5W   15.5N  84.1W
BAMD    15.5N  64.2W   17.3N  69.2W   19.0N  73.6W   20.3N  77.2W
BAMM    15.3N  66.3W   17.0N  72.8W   18.1N  78.8W   19.1N  83.4W
LBAR    13.5N  67.6W   14.8N  73.2W   15.6N  78.4W   16.2N  82.0W
SHIP        51KTS          58KTS          70KTS          80KTS
DSHP        51KTS          58KTS          70KTS          80KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  55.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  12.7N LONM12 =  51.7W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  48.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif

[TCmet]

Still TD5.

18z Best Track

AL, 05, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 30, 1008, TD

With the storm's flaky history thus far (and recon in the air), all the more reason to wait until the 5pm package if NHC wants to upgrade.

[islandguy246]

Still TD5.

18z Best Track

AL, 05, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 30, 1008, TD

Further south?

[Zeno8]

I agree WNW and Ernesto at 5pm

[PTrackerLA]

Not sure what to think right now. Both GFS and Euro show weakening below TD status in Caribbean sea and the GFS doesn't really get it act together until it's into the Gulf. HWRF is one of the first models I've seen that indicate a real hurricane threat in the Caribbean.

[ROCK]

thats weird..they didnt run the 18Z CMC that they have been doing the last few days......really not a lot of change

[hurricanes1234]

This depression has not changed the least bit in intensity since it was classified.

[ROCK]

192hr EURO kills it over the Yucatan.....poof!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif


never really strengthens it is the many reason.

[Blinhart]

This depression has not changed the least bit in intensity since it was classified.

Most depressions are either 30 or 35 mph winds, as soon as they get to 40 mph winds they are a TS, so the intensity for a TD is usually 35 mph until Recon can prove otherwise. I know you were probably joking, but I have to make sure just in case you weren't.

This system looks like it will be unpredictable through out it's life.

[cycloneye]

wxman57,you said this morning that the Eastern Caribbean was below normal in the trade winds. And here is the 18z SHIP forecast of shear and is really scary down the road.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        15    16    11     5     2     5     3    10     4     4     0     4     3


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021845
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20120802
183700 1238N 05601W 9769 00287 //// +234 //// 359004 004 000 001 05
183730 1238N 05603W 9770 00289 //// +239 //// 352005 005 000 002 05
183800 1238N 05604W 9770 00289 0097 +240 +186 351007 008 000 002 03
183830 1237N 05606W 9769 00290 0099 +236 +177 013010 010 001 001 00
183900 1237N 05608W 9770 00290 0099 +237 +178 024011 011 002 002 03
183930 1236N 05609W 9770 00290 0099 +234 +178 028010 011 011 003 03
184000 1236N 05611W 9770 00291 0099 +234 +178 031009 009 001 002 03
184030 1235N 05612W 9768 00292 0099 +236 +177 029010 011 003 002 03
184100 1235N 05614W 9774 00287 0099 +243 +177 025013 014 003 001 03
184130 1235N 05616W 9770 00291 0100 +239 +178 031016 016 003 002 03
184200 1235N 05617W 9772 00290 0100 +242 +178 038016 017 006 002 03
184230 1235N 05619W 9772 00290 0100 +238 +178 039016 016 002 002 03
184300 1235N 05621W 9768 00295 0102 +234 +178 039015 015 005 001 03
184330 1236N 05622W 9764 00297 0100 +242 +178 047012 013 000 002 03
184400 1236N 05624W 9770 00292 0101 +239 +178 052011 012 002 001 03
184430 1237N 05625W 9770 00292 0101 +237 +178 056010 012 001 002 03
184500 1238N 05627W 9772 00290 0101 +237 +179 050013 014 /// /// 03
184530 1238N 05628W 9772 00291 0102 +226 +179 049014 015 /// /// 03
184600 1237N 05629W 9765 00296 0103 +227 +179 049012 013 /// /// 03
184630 1236N 05629W 9769 00286 0095 +227 +179 049012 013 /// /// 03
$$
;

[PTrackerLA]

192hr EURO kills it over the Yucatan.....poof!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif


never really strengthens it is the many reason.

Yep gone! GFS and Euro have such drastically different scenarios kinda like that D storm. Leaving it at that!

[Zanthe]

wxman57,you said this morning that the Eastern Caribbean was below normal in the trade winds. And here is the 18z SHIP forecast of shear and is really scary down the road.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        15    16    11     5     2     5     3    10     4     4     0     4     3


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt

That's...that's crazy. If that verifies, just...wow...

[Texashawk]

To quote a certain bounty hunter with a Wookie partner...

"I got a bad feelin' about this."

wxman57,you said this morning that the Eastern Caribbean was below normal in the trade winds. And here is the 18z SHIP forecast of shear and is really scary down the road.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        15    16    11     5     2     5     3    10     4     4     0     4     3


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt

[ROCK]

192hr EURO kills it over the Yucatan.....poof!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif


never really strengthens it is the many reason.

Yep gone! GFS and Euro have such drastically different scenarios kinda like that D storm. Leaving it at that!

yeah you cant discredit the GFS anymore as much as I like too.... with the SHIPS shear forecast to remain low I dont see how this cannot strengthen....The ssts are there...

the GOM is real toasty....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Dave]

[ROCK]

yeah Luis this is why I dont understand what the EURO is doing in this last run....remains weak and buries it into CA....

[tolakram]

Big blowup over the center, just starting. Thankfully recon is in there so we can see if it starts to deepen.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

yeah Luis this is why I dont understand what the EURO is doing in this last run....remains weak and buries it into CA....

Maybe when it turns into Ernesto and it gets imput from recon things change in that model.

[ROCK]

pressure obs are back up and running also....which is good news...I am thinking 1003mb right now if they can get a good sampling...JMO....