ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

yeah Luis this is why I dont understand what the EURO is doing in this last run....remains weak and buries it into CA....

The 12Z ECMWF can be completely thrown out because it initializes Tropical Depression Five with an open, weak 1012 millibar area of low pressure. That's obviously not the case.

[stormhunter7]

with recon first pass... its a ragged system... but looks like they have closed off a surface low

[ConvergenceZone]

Now that this looks like this will becoming a storm soon(as opposed to my prediction
that it would open up to a wave), I think it will increase the chance of a more
northernly directional component, and also, I wouldn't be shocked if they start to
pump up the intensity in the long run...

[ROCK]

ssts in the carib will not be a problem...nor the GOM...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021856
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20120802
184700 1236N 05627W 9773 00280 0090 +238 +180 067010 010 /// /// 03
184730 1237N 05626W 9773 00278 0088 +237 +180 059009 011 /// /// 03
184800 1237N 05625W 9772 00279 0088 +232 +181 066008 009 003 003 03
184830 1237N 05623W 9770 00279 0086 +232 +181 056011 012 004 001 03
184900 1238N 05622W 9768 00279 0086 +220 +181 045012 013 018 008 03
184930 1238N 05620W 9774 00273 0087 +205 +179 036014 015 031 014 03
185000 1238N 05619W 9761 00284 0086 +208 +174 044014 014 /// /// 03
185030 1239N 05619W 9773 00274 0087 +210 +170 059016 018 /// /// 03
185100 1241N 05618W 9763 00285 0087 +225 +167 056012 013 008 004 03
185130 1242N 05617W 9767 00281 0087 +232 +166 038013 014 001 003 03
185200 1242N 05616W 9770 00278 0087 +231 +166 040013 013 001 002 03
185230 1242N 05614W 9772 00276 0087 +220 +167 032012 013 014 005 03
185300 1242N 05613W 9770 00278 0087 +215 +168 030010 011 011 006 00
185330 1242N 05611W 9768 00278 0084 +222 +180 026011 013 015 009 00
185400 1242N 05610W 9771 00273 //// +214 //// 032008 010 033 020 01
185430 1242N 05608W 9770 00274 //// +205 //// 016012 013 031 013 01
185500 1242N 05607W 9774 00270 //// +220 //// 011011 012 006 007 01
185530 1242N 05605W 9768 00278 //// +233 //// 357010 012 000 003 05
185600 1242N 05603W 9769 00276 //// +235 //// 349006 007 002 002 05
185630 1242N 05602W 9772 00274 //// +232 //// 346004 005 000 005 05
$$
;

[ROCK]

yeah Luis this is why I dont understand what the EURO is doing in this last run....remains weak and buries it into CA....

The 12Z ECMWF can be completely thrown out because it initializes Tropical Depression Five with an open, weak 1012 millibar area of low pressure. That's obviously not the case.

agree....garbage in garbage out....as much as I hate to say that about my beloved EURO....

[GCANE]

Textbook warm-core at 1C

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208021305

Deeper convection beginning to fire near the LLC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 021115.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 021115.GIF

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,any other talk about models can be posted at model thread.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

yeah Luis this is why I dont understand what the EURO is doing in this last run....remains weak and buries it into CA....

The 12Z ECMWF can be completely thrown out because it initializes Tropical Depression Five with an open, weak 1012 millibar area of low pressure. That's obviously not the case.

agree....garbage in garbage out....as much as I hate to say that about my beloved EURO....

It has really not performed well this season. The GFS has done much better.

but anyways, back to Tropical Depression Five...

Recon shows that the storm has two competing low-level centers. Probably not a tropical storm quite yet.

There's a high chance this makes it to the NW Caribbean...and if it does...there is virtually nothing to stop it from bombing out. Wind shear is expected to be near 5 knots...Sea Surface Temperatures around 29C that extend to a great depth...Very high OHC...and a moist environment. This is a classic NW Caribbean rapid/explosive intensification setup.

[ROCK]

well pressure ob was working for a little bit....lowest I saw was 1008MB before it stopped working again....

[wxman57]

I agree WNW and Ernesto at 5pm

Doubt it will be upgraded, plane is not finding TS winds. Lots of outflow boundaries forming on NW-N side now. Not good for inflow toward the center. Looked more impressive 24 hrs ago. It may continue to struggle until it enters the Caribbean.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021905
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 23 20120802
185700 1243N 05600W 9766 00278 //// +221 //// 335005 007 007 004 05
185730 1243N 05559W 9762 00283 //// +234 //// 332002 004 002 004 05
185800 1244N 05557W 9769 00274 //// +236 //// 272003 004 000 002 05
185830 1245N 05556W 9773 00272 //// +241 //// 274004 005 /// /// 05
185900 1245N 05554W 9771 00270 //// +238 //// 274003 004 /// /// 05
185930 1246N 05553W 9768 00273 //// +234 //// 296005 007 000 001 05
190000 1247N 05551W 9773 00269 //// +239 //// 273006 006 /// /// 05
190030 1247N 05550W 9770 00269 //// +233 //// 233007 007 000 001 05
190100 1248N 05548W 9770 00272 //// +230 //// 218007 008 000 002 05
190130 1249N 05547W 9768 00274 //// +241 //// 213004 007 000 003 05
190200 1249N 05545W 9764 00275 //// +246 //// 203008 010 000 001 05
190230 1250N 05544W 9773 00268 //// +244 //// 226008 008 000 002 05
190300 1251N 05542W 9769 00272 //// +244 //// 228008 008 000 003 05
190330 1251N 05541W 9769 00272 //// +237 //// 209009 009 000 002 05
190400 1252N 05539W 9772 00268 //// +238 //// 198011 013 001 002 05
190430 1252N 05539W 9772 00268 0076 +240 +194 192012 012 000 001 03
190500 1253N 05536W 9769 00272 0076 +235 +189 195011 013 000 003 03
190530 1254N 05535W 9774 00264 0074 +237 +190 189013 016 001 003 03
190600 1255N 05533W 9768 00270 0074 +241 +189 179025 029 015 003 03
190630 1256N 05532W 9770 00269 0073 +247 +190 176029 030 017 003 00
$$
;

[Rgv20]

192hr EURO kills it over the Yucatan.....poof!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif


never really strengthens it is the many reason.

Even though the ECMWF initialized TD5 too weak....The 500mb pattern forecast by the ECMWF for late next week/weekend would suggest if TD5 survives it would be a Western/NW GOM problem.

[Zeno8]

Sí, el futuro Ernesto puede ser un gran problema para la costa del golfo!

[RL3AO]

I agree WNW and Ernesto at 5pm

Doubt it will be upgraded, plane is not finding TS winds. Lots of outflow boundaries forming on NW-N side now. Not good for inflow toward the center. Looked more impressive 24 hrs ago. It may continue to struggle until it enters the Caribbean.

Come on. It could have an eye and you would say its still a depression...until the 7th that is.

[ROCK]

ok Luis here you go.....the 18Z CMC has updated and has done a big shift left....know it line with the TVCN consensus...you just did wait long enough....




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[Dave]

[Texashawk]

I agree WNW and Ernesto at 5pm

Doubt it will be upgraded, plane is not finding TS winds. Lots of outflow boundaries forming on NW-N side now. Not good for inflow toward the center. Looked more impressive 24 hrs ago. It may continue to struggle until it enters the Caribbean.

Actually, they did find 40 knot winds, but the question is were there enough of them?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 021915
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 24 20120802
190700 1257N 05530W 9774 00267 0075 +229 +190 176029 029 017 008 00
190730 1257N 05529W 9768 00269 0075 +232 +190 176028 028 /// /// 03
190800 1256N 05528W 9770 00269 0077 +236 +189 177027 027 018 005 03
190830 1255N 05528W 9768 00273 0077 +235 +188 181026 027 020 004 00
190900 1253N 05528W 9770 00272 0077 +244 +188 181026 026 018 003 00
190930 1252N 05528W 9770 00272 0079 +243 +188 183025 026 017 003 00
191000 1251N 05528W 9770 00274 0080 +240 +189 183024 024 016 002 00
191030 1249N 05528W 9763 00281 0083 +231 +190 179023 024 021 004 00
191100 1248N 05529W 9769 00275 0083 +227 +190 176023 024 022 005 03
191130 1247N 05529W 9770 00276 0086 +219 +189 174024 024 018 004 00
191200 1245N 05529W 9770 00276 0086 +213 +186 173022 023 017 005 00
191230 1244N 05529W 9768 00280 0087 +214 +183 179021 023 018 008 00
191300 1242N 05529W 9771 00276 0086 +233 +180 180024 025 020 004 00
191330 1241N 05529W 9769 00278 0085 +234 +179 183025 026 022 003 00
191400 1240N 05529W 9770 00275 0086 +234 +179 188025 026 023 006 00
191430 1238N 05529W 9775 00274 0086 +240 +181 184027 027 026 004 00
191500 1237N 05529W 9768 00281 0086 +240 +182 180026 027 023 004 00
191530 1236N 05529W 9768 00281 0086 +235 +184 181025 026 024 002 00
191600 1234N 05530W 9770 00280 0087 +233 +185 188023 023 020 003 00
191630 1233N 05530W 9772 00279 0088 +236 +187 189022 022 020 003 00
$$
;

[Weatherfreak000]

So much for him opening up into a wave right guys?


Also, whatever happened to the East Coast storm thing?


Gotta love the early days, when everyone thinks they are in play