ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[SoupBone]

Yea you could be right.......And to the models credit, I think sometimes people get TO fixated on the hot sea surface temperatures and forgot about all the other conditions that are necessary for a cane to go major.....I've been guilty of this myself...

I'm in 100% agreement here. SST's are just one small part of the overall equation, and I think we all lose sight of that (myself obviously included). It is interesting though with how quickly he has developed that the models are seeing something we aren't. But like someone else already pointed out, now that we have fixed locations, pressures, wind speeds, etc. we might see a different forecast after this next model run.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pray all stays safe in this storm! Hopefully it will steer clear of us here on the Ms coast

i agree! not sure why the lord sees fit to keep sending these systems towards our side of the border but ours is not to question!
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Last Category 5 was Hurricane Felix in 2007, one is coming up very soon based on statistics.

this is what ive been saying for weeks

Category 5s are pretty rare overall, we've been spoiled by the early 2000's, although 5 years without one isn't very common either. Either way though, statistics won't be the determining factor of whether this will be, or if there will be at all this season, a category 5. I say we save the hype for when we're less than 5 days away from a more conducive environment.

[cheezyWXguy]

But the question is what are the hostile conditions that the MODELS are seeing that none of us (not even the NHC) are seeing???

Right now all we see in the foreseeable future are high SSTs and light shear, so what is it????????

It's complicated and the globals may very well be underdoing the storm. The GFS hardly managed to see Felix in 2007 as even a closed low when it was a full blown cat5. On the other hand, they may be seeing something we arent at the moment. The thing about weather is that it's always changing and so are the forecasted conditions, especially when you are projecting 5 days out. Conditions could very well end up being different than they are currently forecast to be.

[ConvergenceZone]

explain

Sure, you need a good upper level environment and no conflicting ULLs in
the area, and low shear IN ADDITION to warm temperatures. Sometimes these
conditions can come out of nowhere even if they weren't previously predicated.

That's why majors hitting the USA aren't that common even if the sea temps are super hot.........

[floridasun78]

hi all td 5 did do what ntc say on wed 5pm when she was forecast to be ts today last night look like she was going to be a wave but it didnt get name today so look how weather trick us so let what ERNESTO do

[AHS2011]

So basically when Ernesto enters the NW Caribbean, it is going to be juicing it on steroids?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Interesting HPC disco, concerning the general Eastern North American setup next week:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 05 2012 - 12Z THU AUG 09 2012

.....IN THE EAST...
THE 00Z GFS HAD THE LOWEST AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM 00Z WED 08
ONWARD...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING A HIGHER AMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE
06Z GFS HAS AMPLIFIED THE EASTERN US TROUGH AGAIN AND CLUSTERS
BETTER WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OPERATIONAL
00Z ECMWF AT TIMES IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS MEAN SOLUTION...BUT
REMAINS A GOOD COUNTER BALANCE TO THE POSSIBILITY THE GEFS MEMBERS
ARE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS
IS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING/PHASING OF THE
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUGGESTS LOW WEIGHTING ON ANY ONE
RUN OF EITHER MODEL AND USING MORE OF A CONSENSUS/MEAN APPROACH
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY DEVELOPS.
SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES ON THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE.

PETERSEN

[cycloneye]

Here is this evening's discussion of Ernesto by Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:02 PM AST on August 02, 2012 +5

Observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Storm Ernesto has arrived. The season's fifth tropical storm has surface winds of 50 mph on the north side near 14°N, but has an ill-defined surface circulation with almost no winds out of the west. Ernesto is not a pretty sight on visible satellite loops, with patchy heavy thunderstorm activity and little spiral banding. Arc-shaped low clouds can be seen racing away from Ernesto on its north side, an indication that the storm is ingesting dry air that is causing strong thunderstorm downdrafts. This sort of phenomena is seen in storms that are struggling to hold together in the face of wind shear and dry air. Wind shear over Ernesto is at the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots. Water vapor satellite loops show that Ernesto is at the southern edge of a large area of dry air. Wind shear due to strong upper level winds from the west is driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. A series of Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to visit Ernesto every six hours to keep tabs on it.

Forecast for Ernesto

Since the Hurricane Hunters found Ernesto's strongest winds to be near 14°N, I expect that Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, and Barbados will see the strongest winds on Friday during Ernesto's passage through the islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, then fall to the low range through Tuesday, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. Given Ernesto's poor organization, I give a 20% chance that the storm will degenerate into a tropical wave on Friday. If this happens, the storm will still be capable of bringing winds of 50 mph to the Windward Islands, though--and will still be capable of regenerating into a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. Once Ernesto clears the Lesser Antilles, the reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto RIco and the Dominican Republic. The more westerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Honduras on Monday night, is being discounted by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, it is possible that the storm's outer spiral bands will cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the HWRF clearly shows Ernesto reaching hurricane strength over the next five days. So, the official NHC forecast of a hurricane near Jamaica on Monday is an aggressive one. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Stay tuned.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2169

[PTrackerLA]

Well so far out to 114 hrs the GFS is much farther west nearly making landfall in Honduras...

[Riptide]

Hot Tower Alert

[Shuriken]

But the question is what are the hostile conditions that the MODELS are seeing that none of us (not even the NHC) are seeing???

Right now all we see in the foreseeable future are high SSTs and light shear, so what is it????????

I would guess high-altitude cap -- the "heat bulge" is still pretty thick in early August; and a storm which cannot effectively vent at 250-200mb will just putter along as a TD/TS through thousands of miles of otherwise favorable conditions.

[Ntxw]

Agree with idea that shear will be favorable for gradual development in the Carib. For whatever reason the NW Carib has been the better spot for storm development than eastern carib since 07 so the forecast from the NHC makes sense from that standpoint.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well so far out to 114 hrs the GFS is much farther west nearly making landfall in Honduras...

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/4836 ... mbvort.gif

still might be because it keeps the storm so weak. The high to its north really doesnt look very strong at that projected time and it I feel it would be more likely to take a more northerly track if it were a 70kt hurricane like the NHC predicts. How much further north I guess is the million dollar question.

[Blown Away]

Ernesto is deepening much sooner than models predicted, but the NHC hardly adjusted the track. I never had a grasp on shallow system goes more with the trades and deeper systems respond to weakness more poleward.

[cheezyWXguy]

But the question is what are the hostile conditions that the MODELS are seeing that none of us (not even the NHC) are seeing???

Right now all we see in the foreseeable future are high SSTs and light shear, so what is it????????

I would guess high-altitude cap -- the "heat bulge" is still pretty thick in early August; and a storm which cannot effectively vent at 250-200mb will just putter along as a TD/TS through thousands of miles of otherwise favorable conditions.

Actually high pressure at that height would be preferred for intensification. Often one of the things we hear about most in rapidly strengthening storms is their positions under upper level "anticyclones" or areas of high pressure. Low pressure systems at that level are usually responsible for weakening tropical systems by shearing them out and restricting outflow.

[cheezyWXguy]

hi all td 5 did do what ntc say on wed 5pm when she was forecast to be ts today last night look like she was going to be a wave but it didnt get name today so look how weather trick us so let what ERNESTO do

lolwut

I understood what floridasun said. floridasun, Ernesto is a male name.

What are the chances that Ernesto becomes something like 2007's Dean or Felix?

Probably pretty low. Dean is well within the top 10 strongest atlantic hurricanes to date and Felix strengthened extremely quickly. We are getting to the time of year where its becoming more and more possible, but having a situation like either them occur at any given time isn't very likely.

EDIT: even more shocking about both is that they both made landfall at category 5 strength and within a couple weeks of each other, which I dont believe has ever happened before.

[alan1961]

A bit off topic... I wonder where KWT is? Missing seeing his posts and insight...I would think he would be all over this one....

He's more than likely vacationing CZ, i've noticed he usually goes missing
for a while around this time , back on topic, this slight intensification might only be for a short while from Ernesto, some saharan dust just west of the islands may just get entrained into him and keep him in check for a while.

[xironman]

Ernesto is deepening much sooner than models predicted, but the NHC hardly adjusted the track. I never had a grasp on shallow system goes more with the trades and deeper systems respond to weakness more poleward.

I always thought that the deepness of the system reflected to level of winds that it would respond to http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

[Shuriken]

But the question is what are the hostile conditions that the MODELS are seeing that none of us (not even the NHC) are seeing???

Right now all we see in the foreseeable future are high SSTs and light shear, so what is it????????

I would guess high-altitude cap -- the "heat bulge" is still pretty thick in early August; and a storm which cannot effectively vent at 250-200mb will just putter along as a TD/TS through thousands of miles of otherwise favorable conditions.

Actually high pressure at that height would be preferred for intensification. Often one of the things we hear about most in rapidly strengthening storms is their positions under upper level "anticyclones" or areas of high pressure. Low pressure systems at that level are usually responsible for weakening tropical systems by shearing them out and restricting outflow.

An anticyclone aloft is certainly conducive, but, IMO, it's not the critical factor. I have watched a LOT of early-season whirls find themselves in ideal conditions near the Caribbean, but still refuse to develop. In contrast, I have seen storms in mediocre low/mid-level environments power up due to being able to effectively "clear the pipe" all the way to 70,000ft -- Hurricane Gustav is the arch-typrical example here: a storm which went from TS to 150 in less that 48hrs despite strong southwesterly shear in the mid-layers, catching everyone with their pants down.

Earnesto is clearly having trouble in this regard -- a good sized system with a well-developed LLC , but no really cold cloud-tops. If it doesn't develop a bright red meatball on the Rainbow IR tonight, my hunch is it'll be weaker tomorrow that it is today.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe the models are over doing the dry air and its effects on Ernesto. Clearly just a few days ago none of the major Global Models thought a 50mph Tropical Storm was going to be east of the Windwards. You can pretty much ignore the models on intensity out beyond 2 days right now, they are clueless with intensity and that also plays out with the eventual track. A much stronger storm will push into the ridge stair stepping and is steered more by the mid levels whereas as weak system just moves with the lower level flow.