ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

The 00z SHIP shear forecast is (I dont know if I say the word) but I will "insane".

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        16    15    10     6     5     6     2    11     5     8     4     9     7


Also the RI probability has creeped up a little bit.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt

[perk]

it would not surprise me if this ugly looking ts opens up into a wave as it moves closer to the islands. Plenty of obstacles just about everwere you look. May have a shot to take advantage of a more favorable environment if it manages to make it to the western caribbean.

Your opinion is very different from the experts at the NHC.

Quite a bit different from the NHC.

[ozonepete]

The minimal strengthening by the models might be explained by the desert Ernesto will be dealing with shortly, or to be frank, is already dealing with..

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg696/sc ... es=landing

You are using the GOES water vapor satllite image, which only reliably shows upper level water vaporwhich has no importance in its effect on tropical cyclones. It is only mid-level water vapor that affects them. Look at CIMSS for good charts on mid-level water vapor: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

[ozonepete]

it would not surprise me if this ugly looking ts opens up into a wave as it moves closer to the islands. Plenty of obstacles just about everwere you look. May have a shot to take advantage of a more favorable environment if it manages to make it to the western caribbean.

You need a discalimer here in case this causes alot of damage in the islands due to heavy rain/flooding.

[StormClouds63]

Is it possible that Ernesto encounters the same fate as Earl in 2004?

[ronjon]

Looking at the 500 mb pattern from the Euro ensemble mean, there will be a rather significant breakdown of the southern ridge in 5-6 days that had aligned itself east-west across the northern gulf coast with east coast troughing developing. I know its 5-6 days out, but this pattern tells me if ernesto is strong and in the western caribbean, its going to be turned NW and probably eventually north. The Ivan track comes to mind. We'll see.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP_loop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

it would not surprise me if this ugly looking ts opens up into a wave as it moves closer to the islands. Plenty of obstacles just about everwere you look. May have a shot to take advantage of a more favorable environment if it manages to make it to the western caribbean.

Your opinion is very different from the experts at the NHC.

The thing is, last night they NHC didn't say anything at all about it opening up into a wave, but this morning their discussion did, and now they are back to not saying it again, so it's very possible that they can turn around and say it again tomorrow morning. Looking at the maps representing SAL and dry air in the eastern carib, it's definately has it's work cut out for it.....

[Tyler Penland]

it would not surprise me if this ugly looking ts opens up into a wave as it moves closer to the islands. Plenty of obstacles just about everwere you look. May have a shot to take advantage of a more favorable environment if it manages to make it to the western caribbean.

Its overcome numerous obstacles already. Who would've thought this time yesterday that we would have a 50MPH TS. Looking at the WV loop above, its had dry air in front of it for a while now.
Plus, its structure is still decent and its surviving DMIN much better than last night. It might drop back to a TD, but I don't see it opening back up into a wave.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the 500 mb pattern from the Euro ensemble mean, there will be a rather significant breakdown of the southern ridge in 5-6 days that had aligned itself east-west across the northern gulf coast with east coast troughing developing. I know its 5-6 days out, but this pattern tells me if ernesto is strong and in the western caribbean, its going to be turned NW and probably eventually north. The Ivan track comes to mind. We'll see.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP_loop.html

GFDL hinted that at 18z.

[Ivanhater]

[ozonepete]

Love the CIMSS MIMIC. Thanks, Michael. For any one who wants to follow it, here's the link:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

[ronjon]

18z NOGAPS - headed for central La. LOL, it also develops our Bahamas wave into a major storm - gotta love the navy model.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012080218&set=Tropical

[Shuriken]

Based on the last data, perhaps 50 kt for current intensity? What are the chances that we get Hurricane Ernesto tomorrow?

IMO, poor -- I'm seeing a linear SW/NE convective band setting up southwest of the center while the center itself has tepid convection. These are classic signs of a system which is going to degenerate into an open wave as it enters the eastern Caribbean.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

are you saying not at all or just not tomorrow

Not tomorrow. (Iris degenerated to an open wave, then resurged into a cat-4 following roughly the same track toward Belize.)

I do observe a nice blob of convection over the center after sunset, but it'd have to maintain itself. I want to see all the junk to the southwest of the system die away.

[ronjon]

Ivan track perhaps for ernesto?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/IVAN/track.gif

[SFLcane]

00z plots...

[gatorcane]

The last time we had Ernesto in the Atlantic was 2006 which ironically is similar in track in the short-term for this year's Ernesto. At the time it was expected to go west towards the Yucatan and Southern GOM. Look what happened. Of course at that time there was a big upper-level low that was moving in tandem with Ernesto west in the Caribbean that the models could not resolve properly that influenced the track.....

Not saying it is going to do this at all but check out the animation of how the 5-day cone kept shifting more and more right with each run:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... p_5W.shtml

The point is that tracks beyond 5 days are certainly not set in stone, let alone those in the short-term or medium term range....

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: Love the CIMSS MIMIC. Thanks, Michael. For any one who wants to follow it, here's the link:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

I do as well. It is a good look at what is going on "behind the scenes" and gives a better idea if it is strengthening or not

[hurricanes1234]

Convection bursting to life.

[brunota2003]

Typically cold fronts/troughs this time of year are strong enough to create a weakness to turn a storm northward...but not strong enough to finish the job and deflect them to the NE...so if it does shoot for the gap, LA/MS/AL/Florida panhandle will need to watch it very closely...especially LA/MS/AL. This does remind me a lot of Ivan, except he was stronger at this point.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Jevo]

Im just happy to have another GFS vs Euro match

OK it's about time I'll give Ernesto the stamp