ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#1281 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:43 pm

GFS opens up Ernesto into a wave @ 45 hours.

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/7227 ... msl054.gif
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1282 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:46 pm

Is there something we really aren't noticing because I really thought the GFS would change once the recon data was put in.... Let's what the euro shows later on.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1283 Postby meteortheologist » Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:47 pm

is there a thread for new recon? if so can someone post? on mobile.
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#1284 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:48 pm

IF this track just shifts a little bit more to the right, it would be the absolute WORST case scenerio for the USA, as it shoots the gap between land masses...and moves into, as th NHC put it, "ideal environmental and oceanic conditions" to support a Major..... as the latest discussion said it could.....

I know it's early, but you can't help but think this is starting to look a little scary...
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#1285 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:52 pm

GFS at 66hrs

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1286 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:53 pm

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First, I would like to admit that my previous expectations...that this storm would only reach 40 mph at most...have been disproven, and in a rather dramatic fashion. The apparent reasons, in my view, are as follows...1) the GFS and its ensembles failed to place enough energy into the shortwave trough / upper-level vortex currently seen southwest of Ireland, resulting in 2) an overestimation of the vorticity at the base of the trough and, consequently, of the amplitude of the TUTT / Central Atlantic upper low currently well to the NNE of Ernesto. The apparent result is that the TUTT is weakening and filling faster than expected by the GFS-based models...resulting in a stronger upper-level anticyclone, lighter vertical winds, less dry, stable air, and much lower net / overall wind shear over and ahead of Ernesto over the past 18 hours. At this point, the trend is evident in the westward expansion of convection over the center and the great improvement in outflow over the NW quadrant compared to that of the past few days. The TC, overall, appears much more symmetrical and is developing a band of strong hot towers (tall thunderstorms) around the relatively small, well-defined center that lately has started to take on a ball or fist-like appearance on satellite imagery...a classic and troubling sign of steady intensification, and particularly, in these conditions, rapid intensification if shear were to decrease even more markedly.

Here are some reasons why I think the intensification over the next 48 hours will be much greater than I, the models, and maybe even the NHC have anticipated...

1) Through 00Z yesterday and today, the majority of recent runs of the dynamical intensity models did not bring Ernesto to 50 mph or greater until 72 hours...three full days...after 00Z tonight. In reality, Ernesto became a 50-mph TS by 21Z tonight, when the NHC upgraded the system. The increased intensity, coupled with the steady organizational trend and the slight northward shift of the center, will be significant if the intensification accelerates within 48 hours...as I believe it will, for reasons to be explained shortly.

2) Ernesto is moving a bit faster than what even the GFS-based runs suggested yesterday...and therefore is entering the lower shear levels in the E Caribbean earlier than expected. This means the cyclone only has about 24 more hours...at most...before net shear is forecasted to decrease rapidly...under the large anticyclone centered over Hispaniola and the E Caribbean Sea...which, as the Atlantic TUTT digs south, will only amplify and strengthen over the next few days. Also, a stronger Ernesto, upon entering the Windwards in the next six hours, will already have an anticyclone over its circulation...converting upper-level winds into outflow channels and reducing the negative effects of a fast forward movement. Beyond that, there is only even lighter shear by days 4-5...along with the likelihood of even better conditions near Jamaica...as Ernesto will be wedged between an upper low in the Gulf and another over the Bahamas...as the GFS and ECMWF suggest.

3) Models, and the latest NHC track...though by no means expecting rapid intensification over the next three days...have shifted slightly north by days 4-5...and for the first time show the TC starting to curve at a nearly 45-degree...sharper...angle beginning south of Jamaica. If Ernesto becomes more vertically stacked...with the low- and mid-level circulations aligned...after the next 24 hours, then the prospects of rapid intensification several days before bypassing Jamaica is higher than what many people may think. I would not be shocked if Ernesto, in less than two days, is 10-15 mph above the NHC forecast, which calls for 60 mph during the same time frame. A stronger, larger system...in the current de-amplified pattern...would be more likely to curve toward Cuba and the E Gulf of Mexico...rather than toward mainland Mexico or S Texas...as an East-Coast trough axis moves down to the FL peninsula / E Gulf by day 4.

As for the short term, I think Ernesto, being stronger, may briefly jog closer to the WNW over the next few hours due to better organization wrapping around the NW quadrant...making a track just north of Barbados likely. I would not be shocked if Ernesto reaches 70 mph by the time it crosses north of Barbados in about six hours...with Martinique and Barbados getting the worst of the winds and rain...with probably more than 12 inches likely locally due to mountainous effects (orographic lift) plus better organization and tightening of the center...so beware of flooding in those islands. Afterward, I think very rapid intensification may be likely...and a major hurricane passing just south of Kingston, Jamaica, seems plausible in four days. Up until then, I think this system will follow the NHC track, but afterward deviate farther north than currently expected. Caribbean neighbors, get ready...and FL, I do not think you are off the hook...not by a long shot.

Latest satellites:

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/2090/201208030006f18x91h1deg.jpg

http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/7936/avn0215zaug3.jpg

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/2008/wv0200zaug312.jpg

Models, 00Z yesterday...

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/5619/aal052012080200intensit.png

http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/3115/al0520122012080200.png

...vs. 00Z now:

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/6761/al0520122012080300.png

12Z GFS shows system under very little shear in 33 hours...

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1715/gfsatlantic033250wndht.gif

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/8408/gfsatlantic03310mwndpre.gif
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1287 Postby KimmieLa » Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:55 pm

We have got a whole lot of time to watch this storm here on the northern Gulf Coast. Praying for those in the islands over the next couple of days.
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#1288 Postby Annie Oakley » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:04 pm

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113199&start=60

Recon thread is dedicated to active storm's duration and end.
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#1289 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:07 pm

At least the GFS actually maintains a vort max at 850mb the whole way through the Carib this time...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Models

#1290 Postby bamajammer4eva » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:10 pm

I know that recently the NHC posted a notice saying they are going to be trying 7 day forecasts this year but they haven't been shown on most forecast maps including the ones on their site. Anybody else notice that on some model charts the OFCL/OFCI (Official) track now goes out to hr 168/7 days?? OFCL is their 5 day position from 11PM and OFCI is the new 7 day.

Image
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#1291 Postby wkwally » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:12 pm

checking my insurance and looking over my plan here in South Texas. Do not know if I will be spotting, leaving town or breathing a sigh of relief. If what I am hearing that this could become a major player by next week my area could be in for a tough time.
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Re:

#1292 Postby Nikki » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:14 pm

wkwally wrote:checking my insurance and looking over my plan here in South Texas. Do not know if I will be spotting, leaving town or breathing a sigh of relief. If what I am hearing that this could become a major player by next week my area could be in for a tough time.



It's always good to be prepared. I make some preparations as soon as hurricane season rolls around and then depending on where a storm is going make more preparations as needed. :)
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Re: Re:

#1293 Postby wkwally » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:17 pm

Nikki wrote:
wkwally wrote:checking my insurance and looking over my plan here in South Texas. Do not know if I will be spotting, leaving town or breathing a sigh of relief. If what I am hearing that this could become a major player by next week my area could be in for a tough time.



It's always good to be prepared. I make some preparations as soon as hurricane season rolls around and then depending on where a storm is going make more preparations as needed. :)

I have my things ready since May but just going over everything just to be extra ready. I am a spotter in Brownsville and also the emergency mang at my agency so I need to prepare early as I will be extra busy if this comes here.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#1294 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:19 pm

And here we go!

000
URNT15 KNHC 030414
AF302 0205A ERNESTO HDOB 01 20120803
040600 1734N 06432W 7024 03147 //// +089 //// 053020 021 /// /// 05
040630 1732N 06431W 6814 03396 //// +074 //// 052021 021 /// /// 05
040700 1731N 06429W 6623 03631 //// +064 //// 050022 022 /// /// 05
040730 1730N 06428W 6454 03843 //// +049 //// 044023 024 /// /// 05
040800 1729N 06427W 6285 04059 //// +032 //// 040024 024 /// /// 05
040830 1728N 06425W 6115 04279 //// +011 //// 044023 024 /// /// 05
040900 1727N 06424W 5953 04494 //// -004 //// 052016 019 /// /// 05
040930 1726N 06422W 5815 04681 //// -015 //// 063012 013 /// /// 05
041000 1724N 06421W 5669 04881 //// -019 //// 059012 013 /// /// 05
041030 1723N 06420W 5544 05061 //// -021 //// 054018 018 /// /// 05
041100 1722N 06418W 5425 05233 0266 -031 //// 058019 019 /// /// 05
041130 1721N 06417W 5306 05408 0277 -040 //// 056020 021 /// /// 05
041200 1720N 06415W 5200 05568 0286 -048 //// 058019 020 /// /// 05
041230 1719N 06414W 5103 05718 0295 -058 //// 060018 019 /// /// 05
041300 1717N 06412W 5002 05874 0305 -068 //// 057020 021 /// /// 05
041330 1716N 06411W 4905 06027 0313 -075 //// 057020 021 /// /// 05
041400 1715N 06409W 4824 06157 0321 -080 //// 057022 022 /// /// 05
041430 1714N 06408W 4739 06301 0333 -086 //// 058023 023 /// /// 05
041500 1713N 06407W 4679 06402 0342 -086 //// 049022 022 /// /// 05
041530 1711N 06405W 4618 06499 0345 -090 //// 051021 022 /// /// 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#1295 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:27 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 030424
AF302 0205A ERNESTO HDOB 02 20120803
041600 1710N 06404W 4562 06596 0352 -092 //// 048020 020 /// /// 05
041630 1709N 06402W 4495 06707 0358 -098 //// 046019 019 /// /// 05
041700 1708N 06401W 4442 06798 0363 -107 //// 044019 020 /// /// 05
041730 1707N 06359W 4395 06881 0369 -107 //// 043016 018 /// /// 05
041800 1705N 06358W 4333 06991 0375 -110 //// 059013 013 005 000 05
041830 1704N 06356W 4276 07092 0382 -119 //// 063014 014 003 001 01
041900 1703N 06354W 4238 07159 0386 -125 //// 059013 014 001 001 01
041930 1702N 06353W 4195 07235 0390 -129 //// 058012 013 000 001 01
042000 1700N 06351W 4154 07313 0397 -133 //// 049010 010 001 001 01
042030 1659N 06350W 4122 07372 0401 -139 //// 047010 010 005 000 01
042100 1658N 06348W 4099 07414 0403 -144 //// 047010 010 004 001 01
042130 1656N 06346W 4090 07429 0402 -145 //// 047008 009 003 001 01
042200 1655N 06345W 4101 07405 0398 -145 //// 051009 009 003 000 01
042230 1653N 06343W 4097 07410 0396 -145 //// 056009 010 004 000 01
042300 1652N 06341W 4097 07408 0394 -145 //// 061010 011 002 001 01
042330 1650N 06339W 4097 07406 0393 -145 //// 061010 011 003 000 01
042400 1649N 06337W 4099 07403 0392 -145 //// 061011 011 001 001 01
042430 1647N 06335W 4098 07404 0392 -145 //// 055010 010 002 001 01
042500 1645N 06333W 4098 07404 0392 -145 //// 058009 010 002 001 01
042530 1644N 06331W 4098 07403 0390 -145 -149 059008 009 004 000 00
$$
;
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Weatherfreak000

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Models

#1296 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:28 pm

Just got back in, making some early observations. First off, GFS and EURO seriously wanna kill him? He has done nothing but organize and shouldn't deal with more shear than it already has....I just can't see it. I see Ernesto pulling down a nice CDO-like feature during Diurnal Maxima and just flat out dominate the environment around it. NHC track just looks solid to me, the question of course still remains for me: North or South of Jamaica? For me, the models demonstrate how important than question will be when we are talking about where is he gonna go.


I'm thinking if South: Dissipation, Mexico/Texas...as opposed to North: Texas to Peninsula.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1297 Postby bwjnj » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:28 pm

just wondering what is everyone's odds of this hitting south texas, i'm on vacation from work and wondering if they may call me back
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1298 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:29 pm

Recon is now on it's way!
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1299 Postby petit_bois » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:30 pm

bwjnj wrote:just wondering what is everyone's odds of this hitting south texas, i'm on vacation from work and wondering if they may call me back


<5% right now...
just a guess...
check NHC
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1300 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:32 pm

We now have the center CLEARLY visible on the Barbados radar:

http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... -radar.php
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