Pressure down to 1002 mb in #12 ... soon to be Henri

[Stormsfury]

Pressure continues to fall in #12 ... and furthermore, RECON verifies tropical storm force winds southeast of the center with a 38 kt FLIGHT level wind....(49 mph) ... roughly translated ... that equates to 40 mph...

064
URNT12 KNHC 041943
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/1943Z
B. 27 DEG 45 MIN N
86 DEG 08 MIN W
C. NA
D. 20 KT
E. 24 DEG 23 NM
F. 089 DEG 28 KT
G. 024 DEG 024 NM
H. EXTRAP 1002 MB
I. 24 C/ 257 M
J. 26 C/ 253 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. .1/ 3 NM
P. AF968 0312A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 38 KT SE QUAD 1838Z. SLP EXTRAP BELOW
1500 FT. FIX POSITION RIGHT OF SFC CENTER.

[Rainband]

Rutt ro!!! :o Gonna be a little wet here over the next few days!!!

[Aquawind]

Rutt ro!!! :o Gonna be a little wet here over the next few days!!!

Ditto That!

[dixiebreeze]

WOW! That's quite a drop. Henri at 5

[Amanzi]

I know the system does not have much time to do anything much, and I think I read about shear being a factor here, but what are the chances (if any) of Henri getting a bit stronger than a TS?

SF care to venture your opinon here ?

[DelStormLover]

IMO, Amanzi, i think a 60-70 mph ts, no more than that.

[Rainband]

I know the system does not have much time to do anything much, and I think I read about shear being a factor here, but what are the chances (if any) of Henri getting a bit stronger than a TS?

SF care to venture your opinon here ?

If the trough misses it..it could hang around off the west coast for 5 days..I read somewhere..I dunno how strong it could get..it's moving slow!! I will leave this to the experts!!

[Stormsfury]

Not only that, the system seems to be getting much better organized... the anticyclone to its south seems to be ridging over #12 (and that can be noted by the outflow establishing over the SWern side of the TC and even more so noted on WV imagery with the ULL in the Western Gulf not only losing it's influence, but now is enhancing poleward outflow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

SF

[southerngale]

ticka and I will send the ark over we made during Grace for ya'll to use!

[Rainband]

Not only that, the system seems to be getting much better organized... the anticyclone to its south seems to be ridging over #12 (and that can be noted by the outflow establishing over the SWern side of the TC and even more so noted on WV imagery with the ULL in the Western Gulf not only losing it's influence, but now is enhancing poleward outflow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

SF

double rutt ro. Should I be preparing??? I thought we were just gonna get alot of rain?????

[Amanzi]

...THE OPERATIONAL SUITES ARE FLIP-FLOPPING ON
THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS A PROBLEM GIVEN THE MAIN
IMPACT LOOKS TO BE FLOODING FROM THIS SYSTEM. TROUGH AXIS DROPPING
DOWN LOOKS RATHER BROAD AND LARGELY STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA...SO THE
SLOWER TRACK INITIALLY BY TPC LOOKS ON TARGET AS THERE IS NOTHING IN
THE OFFING TO ACT AS A REAL KICKER FOR THE SYSTEM. GIVEN SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE A LITTLE TIME ON FLOOD WATCH
NWS JAX FL

[Stormsfury]

I don't think the trough misses #12 at least in the short-term but expect a relatively slow movement for the time being ... Del might be a little high on the 60-70 mph ... but 50 mph doesn't seem out of the question. There is potential in a few days that a building ridge behind Fabian does, however, stall the system (in the ATLantic, however) ... and could pose a threat to the East Coast with heavy surf and some coastal flooding...

Given the recent pressure falls and the strong enhancement of the outflow being set up by the upper low in the Western GOM ... this has me a little concerned, but only just a little.

SF

[Rainband]

I don't think the trough misses #12 at least in the short-term but expect a relatively slow movement for the time being ... Del might be a little high on the 60-70 mph ... but 50 mph doesn't seem out of the question. There is potential in a few days that a building ridge behind Fabian does, however, stall the system (in the ATLantic, however) ... and could pose a threat to the East Coast with heavy surf and some coastal flooding...

Given the recent pressure falls and the strong enhancement of the outflow being set up by the upper low in the Western GOM ... this has me a little concerned, but only just a little.

SF

Thanks SF..they are calling for 10-15 inches of rain with higher isolated amounts..thats enough to deal with!!

[ColdFront77]

I know the system does not have much time to do anything much, and I think I read about shear being a factor here, but what are the chances (if any) of Henri getting a bit stronger than a TS?

SF care to venture your opinon here ?

Bron, this system does have time to do something. It is moving very slowly over warm waters and has some ingredients that are in favor for development.

Things remain to be seen while at the same time we monitor the situation, as the steering of this system looks to be slow for several days to the west of Florida, over the state and off the Atlantic coast.

[Lindaloo]

Rainband... TWC was saying some places could receive 20 inches in Florida!!

[Rainband]

Rainband... TWC was saying some places could receive 20 inches in Florida!!

I know Lindaloo :o I guess it's gonna be an interesting few days!!!

[galvbay]

Southerngale & Ticka...we better keep our little boat here until the weekend! We had a HUGE t-storm at 3:00 today in the Deer Park/Pasadena area. 2+ inches of rain in less than a hour. It is still raining and it looks like more on the way! galvbay

[Rainband]

ticka and I will send the ark over we made during Grace for ya'll to use!

Thanks gals!!!