ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Jagno]

^I've seen people here with more common sense than some television talking heads. Our local guy said Wednesday, "We have nothing to worry about." which I thought was awfully risky and complacent. Yesterday he said, "We'll be keeping an eye on this but it looks to be Mexico bound so don't worry." which once again I felt was very irresponsible of him. I haven't checked to see what he said today because it really ticks me off........................and they wonder why people become so complacent.

[Weatherguy173]

I noticed that the latest NHC discussion says that they might be generous by giving it a
45 mph wind speed...I wonder if that means that it might be closer to 35 mph or 40 mph?

it would make sense partially because it has gone over some islands recently and it does not have a well-defined and clear center of circulation.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I noticed that the latest NHC discussion says that they might be generous by giving it a
45 mph wind speed...I wonder if that means that it might be closer to 35 mph or 40 mph?

Best Track put it at 45 knots (50 mph). This should be the intensity at 11 am EDT.

[tailgater]

I think the recon plane founds winds of 39knts at the surface on thier last pass.

[ozonepete]

I noticed that the latest NHC discussion says that they might be generous by giving it a 45 mph wind speed...I wonder if that means that it might be closer to 35 mph or 40 mph?

it would make sense partially because it has gone over some islands recently and it does not have a well-defined and clear center of circulation.

Yes it does have a well-defined and clear center of circulation. RECON confirmed that this morning.

The NHC said "45 mph might be generous" before Barbados had a sustained wind of 43mph a few hours later. Thus 45mph, it turns out, is not overly generous but probably just right for the last advisory. I have a feeling they've gone up again since then. We will see quite soon at 11AM.

[tolakram]

I keep remembering, either one or two years ago, a storm that was moving to the west at such a rapid pace the circulation could never stay defined. Plane found no winds to the south of the center, but no west winds. I'm honestly not sure how that's "counted".

[TexasF6]

For those of you wondering about the "death ridge" HP over Texas? It is forecast to shift west leaving an opening possible for Texas. One of my local ProMets said this a week ago, before anything was brewing...

[Houstonia]

What's up with the area I bolded? THAT'S not Ernesto.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031409
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

[adam0983]

I see winds at 50 mph with a wnw movement at 24mph. For the 11am update.

[Rgv20]

Dallas NWS morning discussion concerning Ernesto..

"I AM ANXIOUSLY AWAITING THE 06Z GFS...SINCE YESTERDAY IT BROUGHT
US THE DELIGHTFUL FICTION OF A NORTH TEXAS TROPICAL STORM ON DAY
10. IT WOULD BE HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO STEER
INTO A RIDGE. LATER GFS RUNS HAVE A MORE SENSIBLE SOLUTION OF A
PATH WESTWARD INTO MEXICO...A SOLUTION SHARED BY THE ECMWF. 84"

HPC shows the usual TX ridge retreating to the northwest, which allows the storm to get there. Maybe this guy doesn't believe that can happen? ah well..

HPC Preliminary forecast issued early this morning for Day 7 has Ernesto in the SW GOM...Link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbgpre.gif

[tolakram]

See thread about that area in the Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113220

[TexasF6]

Not to mention King Euro failed us miserably last time out...

[Houstonia]

Thank you! I posted the recon for Ernesto, but also had that question.

See thread about that area in the Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113220

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 031453
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[tolakram]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 031454
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED
THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT
BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER
HURRICANE.

MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.7N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.0N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 18.5N 83.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


I try my best to be exactly wrong, apparently.

[ConvergenceZone]

For those of you wondering about the "death ridge" HP over Texas? It is forecast to shift west leaving an opening possible for Texas. One of my local ProMets said this a week ago, before anything was brewing...

so to make sure I"m understanding correctly, does that mean
if the death ridge remains in place that the storm will move into mexico??
I'm only asking because I thought I read just a few days ago that the gulf was open due
to not having the protective ridge that was in place last year...


EDIT: Disregard my above post, I forgot there was a model thread...I'll post it there.

[floridasun78]

I see winds at 50 mph with a wnw movement at 24mph. For the 11am update.

you right

[ozonepete]

I see winds at 50 mph with a wnw movement at 24mph. For the 11am update.

you right

Except movement is west at 21 mph, just to clarify.

[tolakram]

And there is the center, exposed in the latest visible.

[wxman57]

Both the 00Z Euro and GFS have the Texas ridge retreating NW to western Colorado by next Thu/Fri. There's quite a weakness in the ridge from the central to NE Gulf, centered on the mid FL panhandle next Friday. Both models would indicate a track to Texas isn't likely. Either south of TX into Mexico or east of Texas. Of course, that all depends on both models predicting the position of the ridge to the NW of TX and the weakness over the central to NE Gulf.