WPAC: KIROGI - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

Northwest of Wake Island.

[Meow]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.1N 159.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS BEGINNING TO
WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEVELOPING, ELONGATED, LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021913Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE AREA HAS AN
ELONGATED VORTICITY SIGNATURE BUT HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS
UNDER STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT HAS AMPLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ALSO HAS ABUNDANT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Meow]

The Northwest Pacific Ocean is extremely active now.



WWJP25 RJTD 030000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 24.0N 161.5E WAKE ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.1N
159.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 161.7E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF A DEVELOPING, ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 021913Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE AREA HAS AN ELONGATED VORTICITY
SIGNATURE BUT HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER STRONG (20-30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT HAS AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ALSO
HAS ABUNDANT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.


TXPQ28 KNES 031516
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 23.6N

D. 161.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER 1.8
DEGREES FROM CONVECTION. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 032148
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 03/2101Z

C. 23.4N

D. 162.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/TMI/SSMI

H. REMARKS...MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC IS SOUTH OF 2/10 BANDING WHICH YIELDS
DT=1.0. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[Meow]

It may become a tropical storm soon.

TD
Issued at 04:20 UTC, 4 August 2012

<Analyses at 04/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N23°25'(23.4°)
E161°50'(161.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 05/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°30'(23.5°)
E161°00'(161.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

interesting that this system is still subtropical but slowly transitioning into a warm core tropical system...


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.2N
162.6EIMATELE, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 162.9E, APPROXIMATELY 310
NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040828Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS
PERIPHERAL RAIN BANDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC WAS
PRODUCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT
BUILT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TUTT
CELL IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND THEREFORE NOT
VERTICALLY STACKED ANYMORE. THE MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS SECTION
(041800Z) SHOWS A PLUS THREE DEGREE CELSIUS WARM CORE ANOMALY NEAR
2,000 KILOMETERS (KM) WITH A BUILDING PLUS ONE DEGREE CELSIUS WARM
CORE ANOMALY REACHING UP TO 10 KM. THE TREND IN THE AMSU CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL DERIVED PHASE SPACE OUTPUT INDICATES A CURRENT
SUBTROPICAL, SHALLOW WARM CORE SYSTEM WHICH MAY TRANSITION INTO A
TROPICAL, DEEPER WARM CORE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND
ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE LLCC CLOSING
ITSELF OFF IN A COCOON OF MOISTURE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
(25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH A
POCKET OF WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VWS OVER THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
SHOULD DRIFT IN A GENERAL POLEWARD DIRECTION AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF IT. ADDITIONALLY
A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH IT POLEWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED FURTHER EAST
CURRENTLY PROVIDES THE ONLY EXHAUST MECHANISM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
041100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO INDICATIONS OF A CONTINUED
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

our 13th tropical cyclone is here but is forecast to stay away from any populated areas....finally! a break!

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 161.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 161.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.1N 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.2N 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.4N 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.7N 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.7N 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.3N 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.7N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 161.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND
060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN
IMPROVING IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
TRACK HAS BEEN ERRATIC, TRACKING SOUTHWARD BRIEFLY IN THE CURRENTLY
QUASI-STATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW A RIBBON OF DRY AIR HAS ALMOST FULLY
ENCOMPASSED THE SYSTEM, AND APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING THE EASTERN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS IS BEING OFFSET BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
TOWARDS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A DIGGING TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF TD 13W. A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO HELP TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SLOWLY
DECREASING SSTS WILL KEEP TD 13W FROM DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, DECREASING SSTS AND THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY
TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES WILL BEGIN TO ABSORB TD 13W, AND WILL
ALSO MODIFY THE STR, WHICH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
AFTER TAU 72, INTO A MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS
ORIENTATION WILL CAUSE TD 13W TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
TROUGH. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96.
DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1002.0mb/ 28.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 2.1 2.7

[Meow]

The JTWC upgraded 13W to a tropical storm.



WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 23.4N 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 017 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 162.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.5N 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.1N 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.7N 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 29.2N 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 31.1N 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.6N 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.0N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 162.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND
060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm 13W develops...

WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 24.5N 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.9N 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.4N 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.9N 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.2N 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.7N 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.2N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 32.6N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 162.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 13 FEET. AT 080512 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 387 NM
NW OF WAKE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



interesting change in track!



WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 050941Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF RIDGE AXES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD UP TO TAU
48. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THE STORM WILL SEE A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND WESTWARD AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TRACK ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL PLACE THE STORM MOTION IN SHARP
CONTRAST WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW, RESULTING IN HIGHER VWS WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, DECREASING SST'S AND PERSISTENTLY HIGH VWS WILL
ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO A 25-KNOT SYSTEM BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48, AFTER
TAU 48, THE NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE. GFDN, NOGAPS, AND
GFS BRING THE VORTEX POLEWARD INTO THE BUILDING RIDGE, AN UNLIKELY
SCENARIO. THE JTWC WESTWARD TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 IN RESPONSE
TO A BUILDING RIDGE, IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE
VARIANCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 48. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

interesting that euro is developing 13W into a monster typhoon just southeast of japan...although weakening is forecast from JTWC...maybe the environment will become extremely favorable down the road...

[Meow]

JMA: Extratropical



LOW
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 6 August 2012

<Analyses at 06/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N26°00'(26.0°)
E162°00'(162.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa

[euro6208]

Remains at 45 knots and not expected to intensify further...

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 27.8N 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 29.5N 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.9N 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.2N 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.3N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 36.6N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 40.9N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 28.2N 162.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

in agreement with JTWC's 45 knots...


WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061101Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM A 060130Z OSCAT PASS
INDICATING 40-45 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY RESIDES IN
BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PULLING
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE
EAST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE PROPAGATING TROUGH BUT NO EVIDENCE OF
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONSTANT AS VWS SHOULD DECREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
POLEWARD LATITUDE THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME DRIER AND ENTRAIN INTO
THE LLCC HINDERING ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. BY TAU 96 TS 13W WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OVER WATER AND MAY EVEN
TRANSITION INTO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM BEFORE THIS TIME, AS INDICATED
BY PHASE SPACE MODEL OUTPUT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO TIGHTLY GROUPED OBJECTIVE AIDS.//
NNNN


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 990.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0

[euro6208]

13W barely a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots but expected to weaken

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 30.2N 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 31.5N 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.8N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 34.6N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.1N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 160.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN




WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED AND
LOOSE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
SUPPORTED BY A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL FEATURE ON A 071041Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW TO REFLECT GRADUAL WEAKENING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
RIDGE AXES IN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS A CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE:
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WARM CORE AND WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT TRACK AND GRADUALLY
UNRAVEL AND ERODE DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.7 / 999.1mb/ 27.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.7 2.1 2.5

slowly weakening but over the past few hours, convection has actually increased closer to the center...

[Meow]

The JTWC no longer estimates 13W to become subtropical.