ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If 91L develops in the Bahamas, it will be interesting to see if it will influence the track of Ernesto....thoughts?

Should not effect Ernesto directly. It may indirectly affect its track by eroding the southwestern periphery of the Subtropical ridge and allowing for a more northerly component of Ernesto.

[Gustywind]

Here are some datas from Meteo-France Martinica concerning Ernesto arrival. Looks like Martinica experienced TS winds in some areas, see below
At 11 AM in some localities :
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf (french version for those who are interrested ).

Caravel: sustained wind 80 km/h, gusts to 105 km/h
Vauclin: sustained winds 65 km/h, gusting to 100 km/h
Cadet mornes: sustained wind, points 65 km/h, 110 km/h
Airport: wind: 30 km/h, gusts 50 km/hA
Accumulations of rain since this morning: 20/30 mm.
Wave height at Basse Pointe : 2.5 to 3 meters average, max 5 meters.
Ste Lucia 3-4 m average, 5 meters max.

[TheBurn]

16:45 UTC Shortwave... Ernie

[mcheer23]

12z CMC shifts south, looks like a hit on Central Mexico
12z UKMET looks like its making a line for Texas

[chrisjslucia]

This is what I meant by exposed ... aka I can see it. Looks like a dry air problem more than a shear problem, but this was 2 hours ago.

However, there is a fair amount of moisture following behind that image by an hour or so, (based on the rainfall here) although nothing sustained.

[tolakram]

He might be assuming it stays west to Mexico.

CMC 144

[ROCK]

found it....the CMC keeps it very weak thus no NW turn...

[ConvergenceZone]

geez, poor Mexico, they seem to get hit quite a bit every single year. Those guys can't catch a break....

[tolakram]

This has to assume the storm stays weak, IMO, otherwise it should have taken a north turn due to that weakness.

^^ ah, yes, we agree.

[Ivanhater]

Clear weakness.

Either Mexico gets a weak storm, or the central Gulf coast gets a strong one imo.

[TexasF6]

He is looking better on the latest satpic & loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[FutureEM]

Ernesto seems to be drawing moisture from South America, but clearly it is not enough.

[South Texas Storms]

Clear weakness.

Either Mexico gets a weak storm, or the central Gulf coast gets a strong one imo.

You don't think STX could get hit?

[mcheer23]

Clear weakness.

Either Mexico gets a weak storm, or the central Gulf coast gets a strong one imo.

You don't think STX could get hit?

Everyone along the gulf coast is in play

[ROCK]

Clear weakness.

Either Mexico gets a weak storm, or the central Gulf coast gets a strong one imo.

I agree with MX.......a lot of models showing this right now....EURO might help in a few minutes....

[Ivanhater]

Clear weakness.

Either Mexico gets a weak storm, or the central Gulf coast gets a strong one imo.

You don't think STX could get hit?

It could if it stays weak..but a stronger system will have no choice but to turn north into that weakness over the central gulf portrayed by the models.

[mcheer23]

Clear weakness.

Either Mexico gets a weak storm, or the central Gulf coast gets a strong one imo.

I agree with MX.......a lot of models showing this right now....EURO might help in a few minutes....

My opinion right now is the lower to mid texas coast. All that can change fast though...its still way too early.

[ConvergenceZone]

Clear weakness.

Either Mexico gets a weak storm, or the central Gulf coast gets a strong one imo.

I couldn't agree with you more Ivan, the strength of this storm will dictate its course....

[southerngale]

Clear weakness.

Either Mexico gets a weak storm, or the central Gulf coast gets a strong one imo.

I agree with MX.......a lot of models showing this right now....EURO might help in a few minutes....

My opinion right now is the lower to mid texas coast. All that can change fast though...its still way too early.

Why? I don't think any of the models even show that.

[mcheer23]

HWRF stronger system so far through 90hrs trending more northward

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est090.gif