ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanetrack]

Oddly, there seems to be very little global model support for 90L. So either the globals are going to do poorly this season or we are going to have a lot of "almost but not quite" storms.

[Fego]

A different road if we compare it with Ernesto's.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC FRI AUG 3 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120803 1200 120804 0000 120804 1200 120805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 24.5W 13.3N 27.2W 13.8N 30.2W 14.1N 32.9W
BAMD 12.3N 24.5W 13.0N 26.9W 13.9N 29.2W 14.6N 31.3W
BAMM 12.3N 24.5W 13.2N 26.8W 14.0N 29.2W 14.6N 31.3W
LBAR 12.3N 24.5W 13.1N 27.6W 14.1N 30.9W 15.1N 34.0W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120805 1200 120806 1200 120807 1200 120808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 35.2W 13.4N 38.3W 14.6N 42.7W 17.4N 49.9W
BAMD 15.1N 33.3W 15.9N 37.5W 17.5N 43.1W 20.3N 48.7W
BAMM 14.9N 33.4W 15.4N 37.8W 16.7N 43.7W 19.1N 50.3W
LBAR 16.0N 36.8W 17.3N 41.9W 18.5N 46.5W 17.1N 50.7W
SHIP 47KTS 52KTS 54KTS 55KTS
DSHP 47KTS 52KTS 54KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 24.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 21.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks very nice. Wouldn't be surprised if it got a Code Red.

[tolakram]

Up to 50%

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1746.shtml

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

May get Florence out of this.

[hurricanes1234]

There is no floater as yet for 90L. 91L only has a floater because it's close to land and affecting people. Does anyone have a substitute for this lack of image data regarding 90L?

[tolakram]

There is no floater as yet for 90L. 91L only has a floater because it's close to land and affecting people. Does anyone have a substitute for this lack of image data regarding 90L?

It's in a tough spot, beyond the range of the GOES sat at the moment.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/#self

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SAB says 90L is very close to tropical depression status.

03/1745 UTC 13.3N 25.7W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

[Bocadude85]

SAB says 90L is very close to tropical depression status.

03/1745 UTC 13.3N 25.7W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

looks a lot better then Ernesto

[fci]

Development this quickly this far out usually leads to a fairly quick turn to the North and this type doesn't generally get as far west as The Islands



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Development this quickly this far out usually leads to a fairly quick turn to the North and this type doesn't generally get as far west as The Islands



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

But from what Mark Sudduth was just saying over on Hurricanetrack.com the models are forecasting the ridge of High Pressure to go no where for atleast the next week or so which would keep it on a general westward track. If there isn't a Break in the High Pressure then there is no place for it to go but west...

[fci]

I understand but since I seem to tend towards climatology. It generally seems if the storm really blows up that close to the Cape Verde islands it generally turns away and never makes it even over to 50w

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Waiting for a renumber...this is a tropical depression if not a storm.

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, the latest satellite shots seem to suggest this is already a TD, at least to me. Nice cloud pattern overal and a CDO-like area of fairly strong storms. I imagine they may number this by 11 p.m., if not 5.

[gatorcane]

I understand but since I seem to tend towards climatology. It generally seems if the storm really blows up that close to the Cape Verde islands it generally turns away and never makes it even over to 50w

Generally yes but remember IKE? Its certainly possible:

[Weatherboy1]

And yes, climatology would generally suggest this will be a "fish" if it develops this early. However, models are generally forecasting a W to WNW track for the next several days as opposed to an immediate hook to the north. So it's always possible that IF this gets a number/name, it becomes a long-track storm of concern (Eventually) to the islands. We'll see!

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure looks good in that sat pic above. Florence, is that you? Might as well join in the fray. It's gonna be a long few weeks folks.

[TheBurn]

18:00 UTC RGB Natural Color
Nice shot of 90L trailing Ernie...

[brunota2003]

It certainly looks close to TD status...with this one only tossing around the fishes, don't expect a quick upgrade from the NHC...they have enough on their plates with Ernesto and 91L, so they'll probably take their time with this one and make sure it is going to really hold together.

[Cyclenall]

For early August, this is extremely impressive. I'm not surprised it was declared an Invest today, but by how organized and strong it is (Almost looks like a 55 knot TS!!! ). It wouldn't shock me if it was declared a TD today and this is coming from someone who didn't think anything around there would form this season. Yesterday when briefly checking the CV area, I noticed how good it looked coming off Africa. Now this is a true CV system while I don't consider Ernesto one because it didn't form near those islands. I also don't recall the models picking up on this particular wave but one later on that came off more north and became powerful in the long range. Very interesting.

Rain-rate very near or at Hot-Tower levels.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/A ... W.55pc.jpg

There are hot towers firing near the center and very cold cloud tops below -80ºC which I think is sustaining (can't be sure with lack of good loops); that is rare in the far eastern Atlantic.