
July/August tracks near Ernesto's current location. Seema CA or SE/Tx likely tracks and more poleward earlier if Ernesto develops quicker. JHMO

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Stormlover2012 wrote:guys weaker storm is going into mexico just plain and simple, if it gets to a hurr like nhc suggest then it will hit la or all the way down to brownsville, this isnt a florida storm or miss its a la-all the way down to brownsville if its strong
mcheer23 wrote:Stormlover2012 wrote:guys weaker storm is going into mexico just plain and simple, if it gets to a hurr like nhc suggest then it will hit la or all the way down to brownsville, this isnt a florida storm or miss its a la-all the way down to brownsville if its strong
Florida Panhandle is still in play
Stormlover2012 wrote:i get alot of my info from my impact weather buddy and im always a realistic guy and not just going to throw something out if im not confident in it, i mean we can all see the storm isnt looking all that great, the models that have a strong system push it and make it the nw, weaker storm gfs,euro,cmc now all have weak storm and it goes west, cmc had strong storm previous runs and has la and upper texas coast... i dont see this thing hitting florida, ive been in rita and ike and i dont mind a florida hit but i feel this wont be a florida hit even though florida is due!! high pressure in south east is strong!!!
ROCK wrote:well the 12Z HWRF still sticking to Western Cuba towards FL Panhandle....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
JPmia wrote:ROCK wrote:well the 12Z HWRF still sticking to Western Cuba towards FL Panhandle....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
Rock.. that is the GFDL I believe.. still showing the weakness near the Panhandle.. interesting.
ROCK wrote:Stormlover2012 wrote:i get alot of my info from my impact weather buddy and im always a realistic guy and not just going to throw something out if im not confident in it, i mean we can all see the storm isnt looking all that great, the models that have a strong system push it and make it the nw, weaker storm gfs,euro,cmc now all have weak storm and it goes west, cmc had strong storm previous runs and has la and upper texas coast... i dont see this thing hitting florida, ive been in rita and ike and i dont mind a florida hit but i feel this wont be a florida hit even though florida is due!! high pressure in south east is strong!!!
yes thats good and all.....but just put a disclaimer at the bottom....then you will be fine...of course you might take some hits by the FL folks....
ROCK wrote:well the 12Z HWRF still sticking to Western Cuba towards FL Panhandle....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
South Texas Storms wrote:ROCK wrote:well the 12Z HWRF still sticking to Western Cuba towards FL Panhandle....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
Rock a lot of those models have not been updated on that map yet. The 12z run of the CMC will show up as the 18z CMC. Same for the GFS (AVNO) and the GFDL and HWRF.
The CMC doesn't run 4 times a day. It just changes the time of the run every time the map updates.
Ikester wrote:I suspect the long wave trough over the eastern Conus will be of greater influence than it's given credence. The models don't seem to handle troughs well at all. We experienced this with Debby. King Euro (my fav. model) along with many others gave too much weight to the ridge. By 96 hours, the ridge, unlike with Debby, will be WAY out over the mountain west with a fairly deep trough digging into the eastern conus. The ridge amplifies even more going into 144 hours basically in the same position. I see a pretty big weakness in the atmosphere and would definitely give more weight to the models showing a northward bias than the ones that send it to Mexico. AT THIS POINT (which is always subject to change) I see no reason why the trough won't continue to dig being that there are several shortwave impulses imbedded in the trough. My point here is that it is way too early to rule any one spot out.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html
Ikester wrote:I suspect the long wave trough over the eastern Conus will be of greater influence than it's given credence. The models don't seem to handle troughs well at all. We experienced this with Debby. King Euro (my fav. model) along with many others gave too much weight to the ridge. By 96 hours, the ridge, unlike with Debby, will be WAY out over the mountain west with a fairly deep trough digging into the eastern conus. The ridge amplifies even more going into 144 hours basically in the same position. I see a pretty big weakness in the atmosphere and would definitely give more weight to the models showing a northward bias than the ones that send it to Mexico. AT THIS POINT (which is always subject to change) I see no reason why the trough won't continue to dig being that there are several shortwave impulses imbedded in the trough. My point here is that it is way too early to rule any one spot out.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html
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