ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Ikester]

I suspect the long wave trough over the eastern Conus will be of greater influence than it's given credence. The models don't seem to handle troughs well at all. We experienced this with Debby. King Euro (my fav. model) along with many others gave too much weight to the ridge. By 96 hours, the ridge, unlike with Debby, will be WAY out over the mountain west with a fairly deep trough digging into the eastern conus. The ridge amplifies even more going into 144 hours basically in the same position. I see a pretty big weakness in the atmosphere and would definitely give more weight to the models showing a northward bias than the ones that send it to Mexico. AT THIS POINT (which is always subject to change) I see no reason why the trough won't continue to dig being that there are several shortwave impulses imbedded in the trough. My point here is that it is way too early to rule any one spot out.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

I am certainly not a met, but if Ernesto is still weak or at least a lot weaker than is thought in the W Caribbean, I would think we would be dealing with a more Westerly course, with much less chance of a N or NW turn. Are you taking this into your thoughts in this discussion or are you assuming Ernesto will be a cane at that point?

I suspect we'll have a 'cane. I'm basically right on target with the NHC. Of course a weaker storm (being shallower) would continue on a more westerly track but I agree with the NHC. I think conditions are favorable for deepening. It's been a while since that area of the Caribbean has been really churned up by something big.

[latitude_20]

Is it me or is something up with recon? Thought they were supposed to be in the air right now, but I'm yet to see any data.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
TD-05 FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72--
A. 03/1800Z-04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 03/1630Z
D. 14.0N 61.6W
E. 03/1730Z TO 04/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[JamesCaneTracker]

They changed the flight time to 6 this evening...

[fci]

i get alot of my info from my impact weather buddy and im always a realistic guy and not just going to throw something out if im not confident in it, i mean we can all see the storm isnt looking all that great, the models that have a strong system push it and make it the nw, weaker storm gfs,euro,cmc now all have weak storm and it goes west, cmc had strong storm previous runs and has la and upper texas coast... i dont see this thing hitting florida, ive been in rita and ike and i dont mind a florida hit but i feel this wont be a florida hit even though florida is due!! high pressure in south east is strong!!!

yes thats good and all.....but just put a disclaimer at the bottom....then you will be fine...of course you might take some hits by the FL folks....

Hey I feel that comment is targeted at me!!

Lol, I agree w/ your analysis. IMO if Ernie deepens quickly, before 70W, then Florida may be in play. Models not showing that and CA or GOM looks likely for now! I will stay with my old buddy the GFS until he betrays me! JMHO

Nothing is impossible, just check out the 2006 Ernesto NHC track and see how quickly things can change.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... p_5W.shtml

LOL, we called the last Ernesto "The Leaf Blower" for the effect it had on us in South Florida. Difference was that models then called for the hard right turn through Cuba back then and don't with the 2012 edition of Ernesto. I REALLY don't see this as a South Florida issue. Panhandle maybe. But living here I almost think if that area as being a different state!!


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KatDaddy]

The waters are very warm across the NW Caribbean Sea. I would not be surprised to see RI.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I suspect the long wave trough over the eastern Conus will be of greater influence than it's given credence. The models don't seem to handle troughs well at all. We experienced this with Debby. King Euro (my fav. model) along with many others gave too much weight to the ridge. By 96 hours, the ridge, unlike with Debby, will be WAY out over the mountain west with a fairly deep trough digging into the eastern conus. The ridge amplifies even more going into 144 hours basically in the same position. I see a pretty big weakness in the atmosphere and would definitely give more weight to the models showing a northward bias than the ones that send it to Mexico. AT THIS POINT (which is always subject to change) I see no reason why the trough won't continue to dig being that there are several shortwave impulses imbedded in the trough. My point here is that it is way too early to rule any one spot out.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

Also will be interesting to see if 91L helps to erode the western periphery of the ridge at all, causing an even slower movement for Ernesto or an earlier opportuniyt to round the southwest periphery, essentially allowing that opening to happen sooner. hmmmm
I didn't take that into consideration in my analysis yesterday, as it didn't exist then, but 91L could influence the path further east than I thought in my "most likely scenario". May shift my most likely landing a bit further east to possibly between Galveston, TX & NOLA. Will know by Sunday if that makes a considerable difference in path or not. But otherwise my overall analysis remains.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[brunota2003]

For those wondering why the 2 pm (18Z) flight is not airborne...from today's TCPOD:

3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

[Stormlover2012]

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... atestrun=1



hey guys I like this website give it a try!

[Blown Away]

HUGE NORTH SHIFT AT 18z, the TVCN consensus huge shift north. The NHC loves to follow this consensus. Models starting to creep back to the right!!

[ozonepete]

Looks like it might very well, Mark. Recent images show a burst right over the center and it seems from the upper cloud motion just ahead of it that shear is dropping now. Also, the circulation envelope is really expanding a LOT now. This could be a pretty large hurricane eventually.

[JamesCaneTracker]

If Convection keeps building around the Center then the Recon mission this evening could be interesting!

[tolakram]

First round poofed but it still looks better.

[SouthFLTropics]

I would have to think that the models are going to start seeing some effects from 91L soon and it will reflect in the output, especially if Ernesto gets stronger.

SFT

[Weatherfreak000]

I can tell you one thing, Ernesto isn't going to be dealing with any worse conditions than it has been for at least the next 6 hours. 91L's influence on the ridge should potentially help draw Ernesto into the Yucatan channel. Regardless, I still see no reason at all to believe Ernesto will not intensify and why should I? Wind shear drops off ahead of him, also if you take a look at a WV loop you can observe the dry air ahead of him retrograded and in general dissipating. Ernesto has an impressive moisture envelope that has kept it from fizzling out, and I see no reason to believe we won't see a Cat 1-2 hurricane in about 48-72 hours timeframe.


Please see S2K disclaimer for official sources, this is just an opinion, not a forecast.

[ozonepete]

Also looks like there's still an awful lot of rain falling on the islands.

[Nederlander]

If Convection keeps building around the Center then the Recon mission this evening could be interesting!

Still moving too fast IMO.. He's going to need to slow down before any significant strengthening can occur.. That being said, he's handled his A.D.D nature pretty well so far by not shearing himself and out running the convection..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

Tweet by the NWS in Brownsville: NWS Brownsville Still watching TS Ernesto. By Sun/Mon should have better idea whether it could pose threat. #rgvwx nhc.noaa.gov/#ERNESTO

[SunnyThoughts]

I too am curious as to how 91L will affect Earnesto, if at all. Guess that all depends on how long 91L hangs around before moving inland, ( if it does) and also the speed of Earnesto.

[MGC]

Question for the Pros or anyone else that would like to offer an opinion:

91L is forecast to track NW over Florida and into the GOM......will this induce a weakness along the north Gulf Coast which might influence the track of Ernesto? IE head my way?????

Thanks,

MGC

[Nederlander]

Question for the Pros or anyone else that would like to offer an opinion:

91L is forecast to track NW over Florida and into the GOM......will this induce a weakness along the north Gulf Coast which might influence the track of Ernesto? IE head my way?????

Thanks,

MGC

Well in my opinion, that weakness is already going to be there, with or without 91L.. Central Gulf is definitely in play..

Edit: the things to watch are how far west he gets and how strong he is when he begins to feel the weakness. The other question, I suppose, would be his forward motion and whether he will slow down enough to allow the ridge to build back..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.