ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[OuterBanker]

Print the GOM, west crib map displayed above.

Place on wall.

Grab a handfull of darts.

Place blindfold on eyes.

Throw darts.

About as accurate as any of the models at this point

[southerngale]

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2012&storm=05&display=googlemap&latestrun=1



hey guys I like this website give it a try!

I like! Thanks! We can weed out the junk models.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM 150 hours:

[Nederlander]

Print the GOM, west crib map displayed above.

Place on wall.

Grab a handfull of darts.

Place blindfold on eyes.

Throw darts.

About as accurate as any of the models at this point

Truest statement I've seen in a while. The models will shift again, and then again, and then again.. I don't think we will have a decent grasp with some certainty until he gets to the gulf, assuming he does..

[ROCK]

see the GFS ensembles spread out once again after they were hell bent on crashing E into CA. That tells me more uncertainty lies ahead.....also here is the NOGAPS 12Z

Southtexas..... https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012080312&set=Tropical



*edited by southerngale to fix link

[Dave]

Well that was perfect...been gone all day and was wondering who picked up todays missoin...just got home, took a look at the tcpod before coming in here and saw the rescheduling. Ok whose building these homebrews off the coasts now?

[Blown Away]

The convection is much more wide spread this afternoon but not real consolidated.

[Snowman67]

The convection is much more wide spread this afternoon but not real consolidated.

Agreed. If Senior Ernesto gets his act together, it may very well be a large storm.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JPmia]

12z GFDL almost the same as the previous two runs.. SE GULF heading toward north central gulf:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think that more substantial organization is setting in and that Ernesto is on track to begin steady intensification in just over 24 hours. Latest satellite imagery and shear analysis confirms what other posters have intimated...namely, that upper-level winds are not strong and that most of the remaining vertical shear is occurring in the lower levels...primarily due to the strong low-level subtropical ridge building to the northeast of Ernesto...as seen by the tightening pressure gradient, low-level stratocumulus, and surge in easterly winds. However, over the next 24 hours, these factors, plus the lingering low-level (boundary-layer) stability / dry air, should diminish due to the following factors: 1) the westward retrogression of the upper low near the FL Keys, combined with the eastward extension of the ridge axis from S FL-W Caribbean to Bahamas-Central Caribbean; 2) the possible development of 91L in the Bahamas in the next 24-30 hours before striking SE FL, which would start to weaken the ridge; and 3) the fact that Ernesto is improving in organization, still has a tight center (a plus), and will be entering moist air and lower shear in just over 24 hours, meaning the system is still on track to follow the aggressive LGEM model, which just yesterday did not show Ernesto hitting 60 mph until 00Z Monday, and its counterpart SHIPS, which was only 5 mph stronger by 00Z Monday. Those models now show 70 mph by Sunday morning...which to me seems reasonable given the small inner core and improving conditions...and very low shear forecasted to be in full swing in the West-Central Caribbean by that time. So Ernesto is still on track...if not ahead of track...to be a potential major hurricane in three and a half days.

Also, as I said yesterday, despite the apparent model "consensus" showing a track toward Mexico, the very notion of a consensus is misleading...it never fully existed outside of the GFS ensembles, which have only come around to that "consensus" since yesterday. A quick review of the 00Z models...which rely upon the latest upper-air data...over the past two days shows that most models showed a slight bend to the right by next Monday...even including models, like the GFS, that then and now showed a Mexican hit. And there have consistently been at least a few models...notably the BAMD and the GFDL...that up until now (12Z runs with new data) have persistently maintained a north turn toward W Cuba / E Gulf of Mexico beginning Monday.

00Z models 02 August

00Z models 03 August

12Z models today, 03 August

There is ample reason not to dismiss these runs...as global weather factors may well lead to a deeper East-Coast trough coming down late Monday / early Tuesday. First, the MJO in the Western Pacific is causing a pulse...a change in upper-level patterns...that will affect North America over the next three days. The strong thunderstorms in the W Pacific Ocean, east of the Philippines, are being produced by this pulse...as convection decreases outgoing longwave radiation (OLR...see chart). This should pump up the ridge near the Aleutian Islands...amplify / strengthen the trough off the Pacific Northwest of the U.S....and thus add energy to the shortwaves in the larger vortex over Hudson Bay, extending down to the Great Lakes. Add the Bahamas system...which no models develop but which seems to be developing now...which by 48 hours should add energy to the vortex as it moves inland over FL and AL...and, combined with a 70-mph Ernesto (or stronger) by Sunday...and suddenly, you have a situation in which models will be confused and divided until Ernesto gets into the Gulf by day 4, by which times the models will back off from the Mexican solution...see the stronger trough...deeper Ernesto...and suddenly switch toward the FL Panhandle, given the expected broad amplitude of the trough.

So, Northwest Floridians and Cubans...do NOT take this lightly. If Ernesto curves toward you...which I believe is increasingly probable...he may well be a very powerful hurricane over ideal SSTs like Dennis (2005), Elena (1985), or Kate (1985).

Analysis of Ernesto

Analysis #2

Pacific OLR

MJO

Upper-level pattern

[Nederlander]

The convection is much more wide spread this afternoon but not real consolidated.

it's definitely looking better. Probably another 24-48 hours before he tries to ramp up..

[Stormcenter]

One thing you can say for sure is that model watching is entertaining if nothing else. Who do you believe when they all keep on flip flopping with every run? I'd put litttle if any weight on any of them right now. IMO

[Blown Away]

One thing you can say for sure is that model watching is entertaining if nothing else. Who do you believe when they all keep on flip flopping with every run? I'd put litttle if any weight on any of them right now. IMO

My heart follows the GFS, but I bet on the TVCN consensus! IMO the model trend is to the right this afternoon, but I can't let go of my emotional attachment to the GFS!

[latitude_20]

Thanks for the info!

[brunota2003]

Well that was perfect...been gone all day and was wondering who picked up todays missoin...just got home, took a look at the tcpod before coming in here and saw the rescheduling. Ok whose building these homebrews off the coasts now?

My bad! I got bored and started playing with my weather machine

[Hammy]

I'm starting to think that one reason why many of the models are keeping Ernesto weak is that the circulation is so small, and may not be initializing well with the models which could be seeing a much less organized system because of this

[JamesCaneTracker]

Well that was perfect...been gone all day and was wondering who picked up todays missoin...just got home, took a look at the tcpod before coming in here and saw the rescheduling. Ok whose building these homebrews off the coasts now?

My bad! I got bored and started playing with my weather machine

So... The truth now comes out. Are you the one responsible for all the Homebrew systems in 2005 as well? lol

[Laplacian]

I think it will be interesting to watch the evolution of overshooting tops and the intensity tendency as Ernesto moves into the Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... ation.html

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/65 ... eplot.png/

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection increasing over center and consolidating. This is likely due to the fact he is now finally moving into more ideal conditions aloft. If it progresses into tonight as I feel it should, may as well throw out the EURO and GFS.

[Stormlover2012]

well remember though if it gets stronger then gfs and euro will be on board, I mean maybe they both will make changes in tonights runs and if they do then they really didn't do all that bad becuase thing is it is a weak system right now and thats what they have been predicting!!