ATL: INVEST 91L

[gatorcane]

When you loop the radar out of Miami, you can see some hints of a counterclockwise spin with LLC center just NW of Andros (island on far bottom right-hand side of screen):

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[ObsessedMiami]

Really pounded with rain and lightning here in Miami. I could see an urban flood advisory in our future. NWS Miami upped the rain chances to 70% for today and tomorrow.

Disclaimer: Just my uninformed opinion and not to be taken as a forecast.

[NDG]

LLC pegged just NW of Andros

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031845.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208031800

I am thinking that is too far NW, I think that the developing surface circulation is much closer to the west of Andros I if not right on top of it.

[Weatherboy1]

Certainly looks like this system is trying to organize and I expect the NHC could raise development chances again next adivsory...good thing it won't have much time over water. Shear is dropping and SSTs are very warm.

The NOGAPS model may just have been on to something yesterday when it showed his area spinning up.

How much it can erode the ridge and where it erodes it may impact the future track of Ernesto.

That's what I was wondering too. IF this thing does spin up and doesn't move very fast to the NW or W, then I would think Ernesto could see a more northerly component too its movement.

[tolakram]

They've switched over to rapid scan mode in the last hour.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

latest

[Dean4Storms]

Note the lack of an outflow near Andros Island yet plenty from the storms over Florida. This looks to be developing rapidly IMO!

[RL3AO]

Pressure tendency falling in Miami. Still waiting for Nassau to send out its latest metar.

[ROCK]

it is wasting no time and even looks better than Ernie......slight low level turning NW of Andros....

[Hurricane Alexis]

Long range Miami radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Extratropical94]

Don't think there's already a thread for it.

18Z Tropical Models:

WHXX01 KWBC 031844
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC FRI AUG 3 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120803 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120803 1800 120804 0600 120804 1800 120805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 78.9W 26.1N 80.1W 27.2N 81.7W 28.0N 83.5W
BAMD 25.1N 78.9W 26.2N 79.8W 27.2N 81.1W 28.0N 83.0W
BAMM 25.1N 78.9W 26.1N 79.9W 27.0N 81.2W 27.8N 82.9W
LBAR 25.1N 78.9W 26.3N 79.8W 27.7N 81.0W 28.9N 82.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 24KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120805 1800 120806 1800 120807 1800 120808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.8N 85.3W 29.0N 88.3W 28.8N 90.6W 28.6N 93.0W
BAMD 28.7N 85.2W 29.4N 89.2W 29.5N 92.1W 29.8N 94.0W
BAMM 28.5N 84.8W 29.1N 88.2W 29.2N 90.5W 29.5N 92.3W
LBAR 30.0N 83.1W 31.3N 84.2W 33.0N 84.6W 36.5N 84.2W
SHIP 38KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 50KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.1N LONCUR = 78.9W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[ROCK]

looking at the Floater I think 91L has birthed a LLC. I see low level inflow from the south like its trying to close off....around Andros and that latest GCane "Hot Tower"...

[GCANE]

Almost looking better than Ernesto, especially in terms of cloud tops

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... image.html

[GCANE]

looking at the Floater I think 91L has birthed a LLC. I see low level inflow from the south like its trying to close off....around Andros and that latest GCane "Hot Tower"...

Hot Towers always do the trick

[brunota2003]

Hm...this is interesting.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

33 knot winds at the update (the winds rapidly increased toward the end of the hour). Will have to see if the next update has winds lasting, or if it is a squall and not representative. Also of note: The wind direction is from the NE, which is one of the components that was missing from my analysis earlier (I could see the low level cloud lines showing winds from the SW, S, SE, and E). The place that this weather station is located would need to report a roughly NE wind to show a closed off circulation to the SE.

[SFLcane]

[GCANE]

Looks like it is setting up a poleward outflow channel

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[JamesCaneTracker]

With each new radar image coming in it's clear we have a quickly organizing system developing here...

There is a almost complete ring of thunderstorms at the center east of the Florida Keys, Storms from around Cuba are headed north into the circulation, Storms from over Florida headed south wrapping up into the circulation, and Storms north of the circulation are headed south wrapping up into it...

[tgenius]

I suspect this will lead to a hell of a rainy weekend :/

I just don't think it has the time to ramp up to a storm does it? Katrina did something very similar in 2005.

[GCANE]

That infeed of unstable air across Cuba into the straits is becoming even more 'juicier'.

Seeing a broader area of -10 LI now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[SFLcane]

I suspect this will lead to a hell of a rainy weekend :/

I just don't think it has the time to ramp up to a storm does it? Katrina did something very similar in 2005.

This is a good question..Its currently stationary with improving conditions next 24hrs it might have a chance to make things a little squally around here.