ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

This came out of nowhere! I wonder what Recon would find if it went out there? Luckily this is no one's problem anytime soon, unlike Ernesto and 91L.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think 90L will become a major hurricane? What do the intensity models suggest?

[Zanthe]

Does anyone think 90L will become a major hurricane? What do the intensity models suggest?

Way to early to tell with any accuracy.
We don't even have a TD yet guys.

[somethingfunny]

Does anyone think 90L will become a major hurricane? What do the intensity models suggest?

Way to early to tell with any accuracy.
We don't even have a TD yet guys.

This. ^

We won't have a TD until tomorrow, if we get a TD out of this. There's no way to upgrade this without visible imagery during daylight. If it holds together overnight and continues to organize though, I think it's very likely going to be a TD tomorrow.

As for a major hurricane, who knows? It's got to stay away from the colder water to its' north and out of any high shear zones or dry air pockets.

[cycloneye]

Looks impressive on this loop.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... r_loop.gif

[hurricanes1234]

Looks impressive on this loop.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... r_loop.gif

Where did you get this loop?

[Riptide]

Where is my code red...

[gatorcane]

This is well on its way to code red and possibly a depression within the next 24-48 hours.

Things are cranking up in a big way out there.

[HurricaneBelle]

Where is my code red...

He'll order the code red:

[CrazyC83]

How high to get at the next TWO? I would say 80%.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert


WTNT21 KNGU 032230
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 26.1W TO 13.6N 34.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 032200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 26.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AT 032200Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IM-
AGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADU-
ALLY IMPROVING UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 042230Z.//

[hurricanes1234]

A tropical depression may be forming very soon......possibly within 24 hours. According to the models, however, this one may stay well out to sea, and that's a relief, considering that Florida and the Bahamas are dealing with Invest 91L and the Lesser Antilles with Ernesto.


_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

Wow, I'm stunned how fast you are. I updated the NHC site after you posted this and I still see 50 and 20 percent. Where do you get the TWOs so early?

[JamesCaneTracker]

Wow, I'm stunned how fast you are. I updated the NHC site after you posted this and I still see 50 and 20 percent. Where do you get the TWOs so early?

The map just hasn't been updated but the TWO is there if you click on the link for it below the map.

[knotimpaired]

Ok Luis, now I am starting to wonder if this one may be ours.

I know it is too early to tell but....

[cycloneye]

Wow, I'm stunned how fast you are. I updated the NHC site after you posted this and I still see 50 and 20 percent. Where do you get the TWOs so early?

Here it updates first that on the NHC site.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

[Extratropical94]

Wow, I'm stunned how fast you are. I updated the NHC site after you posted this and I still see 50 and 20 percent. Where do you get the TWOs so early?

The map just hasn't been updated but the TWO is there if you click on the link for it below the map.

Yea, I clicked on the individual blobs and looked at the texts, but still it didn't change.

@Luis: Thanks for the link.

[cycloneye]

Ok Luis, now I am starting to wonder if this one may be ours.

I know it is too early to tell but....

Way too early to say anything like a threat to the NE Caribbean.We have to wait a couple of days to see how it is moving plus other factors that can affect the track down the road.

[fci]

I understand but since I seem to tend towards climatology. It generally seems if the storm really blows up that close to the Cape Verde islands it generally turns away and never makes it even over to 50w

Generally yes but remember IKE? Its certainly possible:

Ike was such an unusual storm, crossing over Cuba from NE to SW that I don't even look to that history as relevant. We can always find some rare exception but I mostly rely on what seems "logical" to me. Nothing is ever certain but I feel pretty confident that if trends continue and 90L gets named soon, that it will be headed fishing.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.