First To Florence: 90L vs 91L

[Evil Jeremy]

Two new invests declared this morning. One is a decent vigorous circulation off of Africa, the other a quickly forming disturbance in the Bahamas. Which one will become Florence (if either of them do)?

My vote is on 91L. 90L might actually reach TS strength first, but since it's out in the ocean for the time being, there is less urgency to pull the trigger. Meanwhile, 91L is developing quickly, and being so close to land, there might be more urgency to upgrade to TS.

So what do you guys think?

[Florida1118]

Im going to go with 90L.

[Riptide]

I'm more confused about why the GFS and Euro barely develop 90L and 91L and i'm nervous about making such a call. 90L is obviously already a TD and 91L is well on its way but I have a feeling we will be waiting much longer than necessary for classification.

[Extratropical94]

Well, I have mixed feelings about that. As I am a little pessimistic I would say that neither 90 nor 91 will become Florence, but future 92 will do that.
I think that the NHC will concentrate on 91L as it is the land threatening one and keep an eye on that for a while, maybe upping it to TD 6. After they lost focus on 91L due to dissipation because of land interaction they might take a look at 90L and see that it has already weakened because of dry air and cooler SSTs.

Of course:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[drezee]

90L, it looks like a TS now

[northjaxpro]

90L, it looks like a TS now

I am with you on this.

[sunnyday]

About 90 and 91--local So Fl met said this morning that 90 will not develop and will just cause some rain in the area. He also said 91 will turn into a remnant low in a couple of days. Agree or disagree?

[sunnyday]

Sorry I got 90 and 91 mixed up.

[Extratropical94]

90L has been upgraded:

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE