ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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MiamiHurricanes10
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#1601 Postby MiamiHurricanes10 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:17 pm

Are you guys going to be posting images? :cry: :cry: :cry:
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1602 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:17 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Every model that strengthens Ernesto turns him north into the Gulf toward the northern Gulf coast. If Ernesto heads toward Mexico, it would be as a weak system according to the upper air pattern presented by the models.


That's true, and that's the key. Will Ernesto even survive the next 24-36 hrs? I'm not certain that it will, at least as a strong TS or hurricane.



Yea, just like you WXMAN, I'm not sure Ernesto will survive either, lots of dry air in the eastern carib and you can really tell it's struggling...


You must be seeing something different then the NHC... In the 5pm Discussion it said that Ernesto is becoming better organized over the last few hours... Doesn't sound to me like it's a struggling system if it's still becoming better organized!
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Re:

#1603 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:19 pm

MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:Are you guys going to be posting images? :cry: :cry: :cry:


You go ahead if you want.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1604 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:20 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg


I no longer see a disorganized storm. Ernesto is without a doubt combating the environment ahead and moistening it, as well as tapping into the highest heat potential in the ATL. I always said 24% chance of RI looked pretty good, but he was always going to get his chance to do it. It appears that time has come.


Of course this is opinion, refer to professionals for proper forecasts.
Last edited by Weatherfreak000 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1605 Postby MiamiHurricanes10 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:Are you guys going to be posting images? :cry: :cry: :cry:


You go ahead if you want.

I don't have Google Earth, I've been meaning to download it for the longest time, but honestly I just want to avoid the hassle lol.
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Re: Re:

#1606 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:21 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
galvestontx wrote:(master P voice) wish casters like uhhhhhhhhhh



Do we really need this going around this year? Honestly all I can tell is that the guy listened to the pro mets who almost seem to all have spoken upon a weakness the highest reliability models are showing. Still this far away from us do we need to start this war? Take it from me, at least wait till the thing is parallel to Cuba :lol:


Can we clean this up here? Btw, storm looks ridiculously impressive right now. Pressure must be dropping, shear is lowering, SST's going up, dry air is lessening, Here we go!

Stairstepping North also perhaps? North of Jamaica still possible? It's a good day to be watching Ernesto glad I stepped out yesterday where we learned nothing :lol:


Weatherfreak000, what do you think about WXMAN's post about Ernesto maybe not surviving? I kind of sided with him too, and it's only because I've seen soooo many storms die in the carib, although many times they do regenerate....Just curious on your thoughts...
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#1607 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:22 pm

I'll take care of images.
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#1608 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:23 pm

URNT15 KNHC 032120
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 07 20120803
211130 1523N 06527W 7488 02597 0128 +117 +016 055025 025 015 001 00
211200 1522N 06526W 7661 02398 0114 +133 +025 057022 025 016 001 00
211230 1521N 06524W 7835 02205 0109 +145 +034 056022 023 016 001 00
211300 1520N 06523W 8038 01977 0107 +147 +044 055023 023 015 000 00
211330 1519N 06521W 8246 01770 0118 +158 +052 058022 023 016 000 00
211400 1518N 06520W 8409 01592 0105 +171 +059 064022 023 021 001 00
211430 1517N 06519W 8430 01564 0094 +173 +066 065023 024 021 001 00
211500 1516N 06518W 8430 01564 0095 +175 +070 063023 024 021 001 00
211530 1515N 06516W 8432 01564 0093 +179 +074 066024 024 021 000 00
211600 1515N 06515W 8428 01566 0090 +180 +076 067024 025 021 000 00
211630 1514N 06514W 8432 01566 0093 +180 +079 069023 024 022 000 00
211700 1513N 06513W 8429 01567 0093 +180 +081 078025 025 023 000 00
211730 1512N 06511W 8429 01567 0093 +175 +082 076024 025 024 000 00
211800 1511N 06510W 8432 01566 0094 +177 +082 077023 024 023 000 00
211830 1510N 06509W 8430 01565 0094 +175 +082 074022 023 023 000 00
211900 1509N 06508W 8433 01566 0099 +175 +083 077023 023 022 000 00
211930 1508N 06506W 8429 01572 0102 +175 +083 078022 023 022 000 00
212000 1507N 06505W 8430 01572 0102 +175 +083 078021 022 025 000 00
212030 1506N 06504W 8430 01576 0107 +173 +084 078022 023 024 000 00
212100 1505N 06502W 8432 01573 0102 +178 +085 076022 023 025 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1609 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:24 pm

Looks better than it has in its lifetime to me

Image
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Re: Re:

#1610 Postby MiamiHurricanes10 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:27 pm

MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:Are you guys going to be posting images? :cry: :cry: :cry:


You go ahead if you want.

I don't have Google Earth, I've been meaning to download it for the longest time, but honestly I just want to avoid the hassle lol.

:D :D :D Thanks a ton.
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#1611 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:28 pm

I'm not too sure CZ, I can only give ya my opinion. Ernesto seemed to have been battling a duel where he was essentially ganged upon by some strong shear along it's north side and dry air. His environment currently is only going to improve, if he takes advantage he's going to strengthen.


I recall a storm a few years back in an El Nino season, I believe Chris, which kinda seemed familiar. If you recall the storm your a vet around here, the war about GOM or towards Eastern Seaboard started again, models were split on the solutions. Chris then blossomed a CDO, but started stairstepping North and was Guillotined by a TUTT and lost. I recall quite a few of us wondered what would have happened had he made it to the Caribbean, I think I am seeing personally a similar analog.


Just an opinion, not a forecast.
Last edited by Weatherfreak000 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1612 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:29 pm

I do agree he looks better than he ever has imo. Not to say that will continue throughout the next day or two..but for now, he is definitely fighting to try and strengthen. Very interesting week coming up for sure.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#1613 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:29 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1614 Postby hipshot » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:30 pm

From the image Ivanhater posted, this storm looks like it is getting much broader
and better organized (just my opinion). No telling how strong it gets but it looks
pretty scary to me and my untrained eye.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1615 Postby latitude_20 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:33 pm

Recon's there, so we'll see what they find!
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#1616 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:34 pm

URNT15 KNHC 032130
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 08 20120803
212130 1505N 06501W 8430 01575 0102 +179 +086 075023 024 023 001 00
212200 1504N 06500W 8432 01575 0102 +180 +086 073022 023 023 000 00
212230 1503N 06459W 8429 01576 0102 +180 +087 071022 023 023 000 00
212300 1502N 06457W 8429 01578 0107 +176 +088 072020 020 023 000 00
212330 1500N 06457W 8427 01577 0106 +175 +088 067021 021 023 000 00
212400 1459N 06456W 8437 01570 0107 +175 +088 067021 022 024 001 00
212430 1458N 06455W 8429 01579 0107 +175 +088 063023 023 026 000 00
212500 1458N 06455W 8429 01579 0104 +178 +089 064023 024 026 000 03
212530 1455N 06453W 8430 01576 0105 +177 +089 065022 024 026 000 00
212600 1453N 06452W 8433 01573 0107 +175 +090 062023 023 025 000 00
212630 1452N 06451W 8425 01582 0105 +175 +091 059022 022 026 000 03
212700 1451N 06450W 8430 01572 0104 +175 +090 057022 022 028 001 00
212730 1449N 06449W 8434 01570 0105 +171 +090 057025 026 029 000 00
212800 1448N 06448W 8424 01577 0103 +170 +091 061027 028 029 001 00
212830 1446N 06448W 8434 01567 0101 +173 +091 064027 029 030 001 00
212900 1445N 06447W 8432 01571 0103 +175 +091 070029 029 030 000 00
212930 1444N 06446W 8425 01576 0101 +172 +091 067027 029 030 000 00
213000 1442N 06445W 8435 01567 0101 +173 +092 063027 027 029 000 00
213030 1441N 06444W 8427 01574 0101 +175 +092 061028 028 029 000 00
213100 1439N 06443W 8433 01566 0099 +175 +092 062027 028 029 000 00
$$
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Re:

#1617 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:34 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'm not too sure CZ, I can only give ya my opinion. Ernesto seemed to have been battling a duel where he was essentially ganged upon by some strong shear along it's north side and dry air. His environment currently is only going to improve, if he takes advantage he's going to strengthen.


I recall a storm a few years back in an El Nino season, I believe Chris, which kinda seemed familiar. If you recall the storm your a vet around here, the war about GOM or towards Eastern Seaboard started again, models were split on the solutions. Chris then blossomed a CDO, but started stairstepping North and was Guillotined by a TUTT and lost. I recall quite a few of us wondered what would have happened had he made it to the Caribbean, I think I am seeing personally a similar analog.


Just an opinion, not a forecast.




it was Chris and was beheaded by some mid level shear that was not forecasted....
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1618 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:35 pm

Shear forecasts are notoriously terrible... but the shear forecasts have been verifying thus far with Ernesto.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1619 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:37 pm

Microwave imagery shows a better defined circulation and for the first time on the western side.

Image
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1620 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:39 pm

Microwave looks mighty impressive.

Image
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