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ConvergenceZone wrote:wxman57 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Every model that strengthens Ernesto turns him north into the Gulf toward the northern Gulf coast. If Ernesto heads toward Mexico, it would be as a weak system according to the upper air pattern presented by the models.
That's true, and that's the key. Will Ernesto even survive the next 24-36 hrs? I'm not certain that it will, at least as a strong TS or hurricane.
Yea, just like you WXMAN, I'm not sure Ernesto will survive either, lots of dry air in the eastern carib and you can really tell it's struggling...
CrazyC83 wrote:MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:Are you guys going to be posting images?![]()
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You go ahead if you want.
Weatherfreak000 wrote:galvestontx wrote:(master P voice) wish casters like uhhhhhhhhhh
Do we really need this going around this year? Honestly all I can tell is that the guy listened to the pro mets who almost seem to all have spoken upon a weakness the highest reliability models are showing. Still this far away from us do we need to start this war? Take it from me, at least wait till the thing is parallel to Cuba![]()
Can we clean this up here? Btw, storm looks ridiculously impressive right now. Pressure must be dropping, shear is lowering, SST's going up, dry air is lessening, Here we go!
Stairstepping North also perhaps? North of Jamaica still possible? It's a good day to be watching Ernesto glad I stepped out yesterday where we learned nothing
MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:Are you guys going to be posting images?![]()
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You go ahead if you want.
I don't have Google Earth, I've been meaning to download it for the longest time, but honestly I just want to avoid the hassle lol.
Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'm not too sure CZ, I can only give ya my opinion. Ernesto seemed to have been battling a duel where he was essentially ganged upon by some strong shear along it's north side and dry air. His environment currently is only going to improve, if he takes advantage he's going to strengthen.
I recall a storm a few years back in an El Nino season, I believe Chris, which kinda seemed familiar. If you recall the storm your a vet around here, the war about GOM or towards Eastern Seaboard started again, models were split on the solutions. Chris then blossomed a CDO, but started stairstepping North and was Guillotined by a TUTT and lost. I recall quite a few of us wondered what would have happened had he made it to the Caribbean, I think I am seeing personally a similar analog.
Just an opinion, not a forecast.
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