ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

This was the last RECCO received and yes recon is headed back to base...unknown problems at this time.

000
URNT11 KNHC 032300
97779 23004 60166 64000 30300 11032 09042 /3170
RMK AF309 0305A ERNESTO OB 06
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

[GCANE]

Latest core analysis at 17Z shows the warm core has gained altitude from earlier this morning and was at 11km at 1C.

However, wasn't centered around the COC.

Will be interesting to see what it looks like after the hot tower which started firing at about 22Z.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208031712

[cycloneye]

Thank you Dave for posting the TCPOD.

[Dave]

Something I noticed on this last short mission, there weren't any dropsondes released anywhere a long the route, only recco messages. Just an observation.

[Dave]

Ok in the morning I will be gone and won't be back until at least noon so for the first mission we'll need someone to pick it up please. Thanks!

[Rgv20]

12zCMC has Ernesto in the Western GOM by Friday Evening.

[GCANE]

Could the possible formation of a stronger storm off of FLORIDA cause a more NORTHERN component of the future track of Ernie?

Not too sure 91L will strengthen that much. Will be over land in 24 hrs or so.

And, a strengthening Ernie will likely advect LL moist air away from 91L.

MIMIC-TPW will show a lot .

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[GCANE]

Steering-flow rates vs altitude seems to be not as divergent as 24 hrs or so ago.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

So, IMHO, the chances of the LLC decoupling from the MLC are getting less.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Ernesto is probably a 65mph TS.
215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00
Wish recon hadn't left.

[FireBird]

Ernesto looks the most impressive of his trek so far. Interesting to see what happens next.
In the meantime, he has left some damage here in Trinidad. It seems that a tornado touched down, with persons reporting a funnel cloud making it to the earth. There were pics of galvanise sheets wrapped around light posts and strewn across football fields. Fortunately, the area was not a highly residential one, and nobody was injured. Reports of flooding appear minimal thankfully also.
Those ahead must keep up the vigil...

[Ivanhater]

As stated before, the only way this goes to Mexico or South Texas is if it stays weak. All models that intensify Ernesto are in great agreement on a turn toward the north through the Yucatan Channel toward the northern Gulf.

Take a look at the 500mb height from this afternoon's Euro...huge weakness over the northern Gulf. If this is a hurricane, it will turn given the upper pattern. And Ernesto looks to be taking off tonight

[HurricaneAndrew92]

If this steady/RI continues, will we see a special advisory before 11?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Ernesto probably a 60/65mph TS
215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

[lester]

Ernesto is probably a 65mph TS.
215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00
Wish recon hadn't left.

those are rain-contaminated, you should ignore those

[GCANE]

One thing that Ernie may run into in the next 12hrs or so is a UL PV anomaly directly ahead of his track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

If it interacts with Ernie's LLC, it could push down on his vorticity column and keep him from spinning up fast.

Something to keep an eye on.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

One thing that Ernie may run into in the next 12hrs or so is a UL PV anomaly directly ahead of his track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

If it interacts with Ernie's LLC, it could push down on his vorticity column and keep him from spinning up fast.

Something to keep an eye on.

What would be the chances of that? Saw it earlier.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

As Ivan's above map so eloquently shows, Really don't think it matters how much the models start to flip flop regarding the long range track of "E". The forecast track, not intensity is pretty straight forward. Weak he stays south into MX. Cat 1 or possibly 2, hurricane coming north to someone along the north gulf coast. LA through FL. There will be a weakness and even moreso if 91L does move west into the gulf as well and erodes the ridge even more. Pretty cut and dry.


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[cycloneye]

One thing that Ernie may run into in the next 12hrs or so is a UL PV anomaly directly ahead of his track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

If it interacts with Ernie's LLC, it could push down on his vorticity column and keep him from spinning up fast.

Something to keep an eye on.

This morning you had it at 15N-69W.Has that position changed or is still around there?

[wxman57]

Ernesto probably a 60/65mph TS
215430 1337N 06402W 8458 01517 0087 +149 +097 137026 031 061 069 00
215500 1336N 06401W 8423 01549 0089 +141 +094 136020 031 062 064 00
215530 1335N 06400W 8425 01549 0089 +145 +090 165015 018 062 054 00
215600 1334N 06359W 8442 01533 0091 +141 +087 176022 025 065 048 03
215630 1333N 06358W 8421 01554 0081 +153 +084 153019 023 061 024 00

I just don't believe those SFMR winds - more than TWICE or even THREE TIMES the FL winds?? The plane didn't seem to find the center, it looks like the center was farther west. I'd believe pockets of 40 maybe 45 kt winds but generally winds less than that. Convection is flaring up fairly well now, though.

[GCANE]

One thing that Ernie may run into in the next 12hrs or so is a UL PV anomaly directly ahead of his track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

If it interacts with Ernie's LLC, it could push down on his vorticity column and keep him from spinning up fast.

Something to keep an eye on.

This morning you had it at 15N-69W.Has that position changed or is still around there?

Looks like it is about the same place.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

I am wondering, since it is isolated and Ernie may be RI'ing, if Ernie pushes it away.