ATL: INVEST 91L

[Hurricane Alexis]

It will probably just be a rain maker for most of Florida whether it develops or not.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Meanwhile here at South Beach the winds have picked up from the NE off the ocean, starting to get that feeling that there is a tropical system out there.

[Hurricane Alexis]

The afternoon discussion from miami wasn't buying it.

[thetraveler]

We had a nice windy time near Lake Placid earlier today. The winds were hitting around 25mph with some rain. This really will dampen my plans to ride my softtail tomorrow and Sunday. I guess I will just sit here and drink. lol.

[NDG]

The only thing that I can see that the NHC may not up chances of development by much on their next TWD update is that surface pressures have not fallen much during the day today and remain relatively high.

[Bocadude85]

I see that wxman57 is online.. wondering if he would mind sharing his thoughts on 91L?

[Dean4Storms]

Jax. FL NWS Web Briefing on 91L.....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBrie ... /index.htm

[tolakram]

Live loop, a bunch of frames. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Can't make heads or tails of anything now.

[Bocadude85]

Im not sure this system is going to have enough time over water to do much of anything... Im starting to this this wont be anything more the a tropical depression and I feel even that is pushing it. Just my opinion of course.

[Evil Jeremy]

Im not sure this system is going to have enough time over water to do much of anything... Im starting to this this wont be anything more the a tropical depression and I feel even that is pushing it. Just my opinion of course.

lol, an hour and a half ago you were thinking that the NHC would bump up the TWO by 20% or 30%.

[CrazyC83]

I agree, this is going to be a slow developer if current trends hold. Maybe low-end orange (30%) but no more.

[Bocadude85]

Im not sure this system is going to have enough time over water to do much of anything... Im starting to this this wont be anything more the a tropical depression and I feel even that is pushing it. Just my opinion of course.

lol, an hour and a half ago you were thinking that the NHC would bump up the TWO by 20% or 30%.

I still think they will bump up the TWO but that doesnt guarantee development before this moves ashore.

[cycloneye]

20%

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE INHIBITED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[hurricanes1234]

I personally think that this system has insufficient time to develop into anything significant within the next 48 hours. However, this would be the opposite case when it hits the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (31 degrees Celsius!), along with the moist air and apparently light shear.

______________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MGC]

Couple of pesky ULL providing a good bit of shear......MGC

[BigB0882]

It is also important to remember that the swampy area of Florida it is passing over is probably going to do very little to disturb this system since it is so unorganized as it is. If it should enter into the Gulf then it should have the ability to get cranking if conditions are right.

[fci]

I agree with those who have some concern if 91L makes it to the GOM.
Not uncommon for messy little systems to not develop at all until they cross Florida.
Or they develop and move into the Atlantic.
No, I'm not really worried here about 91L, I just like the rain filling up the lakes and canals and we have been dry since early this afternoon after some nice squalls earlier today.

[JamesCaneTracker]

It is also important to remember that the swampy area of Florida it is passing over is probably going to do very little to disturb this system since it is so unorganized as it is. If it should enter into the Gulf then it should have the ability to get cranking if conditions are right.

But if Ernesto Ramps up then conditions shouldn't be right for this area to develop as well... Ernesto should be sending outflow which would increase shear into the GoM if it becomes a Hurricane...

[greenkat]

Does any one think that a tropical storm warning might be required for parts of florida over the next 3 days? Invest 91L looking great at the moment.

Well, a tropical storm warning is only typically issued for parts of land in the immediate vicinity of a tropical storm or rapidly strengthening tropical depression and seeing as 91L fits neither of those categories, I don't think a TS watch or warning is required.

[Evil Jeremy]

Does any one think that a tropical storm warning might be required for parts of florida over the next 3 days? Invest 91L looking great at the moment.

Well, a tropical storm warning is only typically issued for parts of land in the immediate vicinity of a tropical storm or rapidly strengthening tropical depression and seeing as 91L fits neither of those categories, I don't think a TS watch or warning is required.

You're right, but only about the immediate. Greenkat was wondering about the next three days, and there is a 20% chance of formation in the next 2 days. If this becomes a TD, there will be watches and warnings for Florida, so I would say there is currently a 20% chance of watches/warnings for parts of Florida.