ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

The structure of this system is now on the verge of tropical cyclone status, and as the NHC said, the showers and thunderstorms have become more well-defined over the past 6 hours. I think at 11 PM tonight, we may be looking at a near 100% chance of development and at 2 AM, a fully-formed tropical depression. Or, at 11 PM tonight, we may be already looking at a TD. If this forms into a TD within the next 24 hours, it may have a shot at becoming a major hurricane, but only briefly, because the SSTs around 90L are not as warm as the SSTs Ernesto is embedded within. Not only to mention, the air is relatively dry as well.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JamesCaneTracker]

The structure of this system is now on the verge of tropical cyclone status, and as the NHC said, the showers and thunderstorms have become more well-defined over the past 6 hours. I think at 11 PM tonight, we may be looking at a near 100% chance of development and at 2 AM, a fully-formed tropical depression. Or, at 11 PM tonight, we may be already looking at a TD. If this forms into a TD within the next 24 hours, it may have a shot at becoming a major hurricane, but only briefly, because the SSTs around 90L are not as warm as the SSTs Ernesto is embedded within. Not only to mention, the air is relatively dry as well.
____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

the TWOs only come out at 2am, 8am, 2pm, and 8pm. So if it doesn't get upgraded at 11 tonight then at 2am would be when it gets upgraded to 100% if it does... If it doesn't get upgraded at 11pm then we won't get any kind of update on it until 2am.

[jinftl]

Can see some banding features particularly on the southeast and southwest quadrants. Not sure the last time we saw a 'code red' for a system east of 30W. Impressive.

[redneck51]

First model plots.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak.

04/0000 UTC 13.3N 27.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

We have TD 6.Officlally at 11 PM.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

We have TD 6.Officlally at 11 PM.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD

They updated the data not going to TD at 11 PM so disregard the above.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[smw1981]

00z Best Track

We have TD 6.Officlally at 11 PM.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD

I honestly didn't see that one coming..figured they would wait until 2 for an update. We'll see how well she makes the trek across the big ocean..

*Disclaimer: This is just my amateur opinion..nothing professional about it!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

LOL.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[hurricanes1234]

00z Best Track

We have TD 6.Officlally at 11 PM.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD

They updated the data not going to TD at 11 PM so disregard the above.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

So is it a TD or not? Or was it briefly a TD then weakened back to an invest?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00z Best Track

We have TD 6.Officlally at 11 PM.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD

They updated the data not going to TD at 11 PM so disregard the above.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

So is it a TD or not? Or was it briefly a TD then weakened back to an invest?

They probably made a mistake in transmitting the data. It should still be a TD at 11PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

I honestly didn't see that one coming..figured they would wait until 2 for an update. We'll see how well she makes the trek across the big ocean..

*Disclaimer: This is just my amateur opinion..nothing professional about it!

They made an update not upgrading to TD at 11 PM.

[AJC3]

I'm looking at 15-minute METEOSAT imagery and it sure looks for all the world like it's a TC right now. It's just a matter of the trigger being pulled.

Just MHO and in no way represents the agency for which I work -

[AJC3]

Latest M/I pass...

[cycloneye]

00z Models

SHIP goes to Hurricane for the first time.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 040055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC SAT AUG 4 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120804 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120804  0000   120804  1200   120805  0000   120805  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  27.2W   14.7N  30.0W   15.4N  32.7W   15.7N  35.4W
BAMD    13.5N  27.2W   14.6N  29.8W   15.6N  32.2W   16.4N  34.5W
BAMM    13.5N  27.2W   14.8N  29.7W   15.7N  32.1W   16.5N  34.6W
LBAR    13.5N  27.2W   14.6N  30.2W   15.8N  33.4W   16.7N  36.6W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          48KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120806  0000   120807  0000   120808  0000   120809  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  38.0W   16.4N  44.0W   18.3N  50.8W   21.1N  56.7W
BAMD    17.2N  36.7W   18.9N  41.6W   22.1N  46.2W   25.3N  47.6W
BAMM    17.1N  37.2W   18.7N  43.2W   21.8N  49.4W   26.1N  53.1W
LBAR    17.4N  39.5W   18.9N  44.7W   21.4N  48.7W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          57KTS          60KTS          66KTS
DSHP        51KTS          57KTS          60KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  27.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  24.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  21.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Cyclenall]

So is it a TD or not? Or was it briefly a TD then weakened back to an invest?

Yeah, it was a TD for 1 minute then weakened to a low right after . Its all over the place, I think its a TD right now.

I'm looking at 15-minute METEOSAT imagery and it sure looks for all the world like it's a TC right now. It's just a matter of the trigger being pulled.

Just MHO and in no way represents the agency for which I work -

Agreed.

What's funny is both Ernesto and 90L look almost exactly the same right now, how often does that happen?

[hurricanes1234]

Look at the Atlantic wide view - 90L is slowly appearing to the left side of the dark area in the extreme right of the image.

How do you turn off the auto-update on the images posted, like this one???

[CrazyC83]

The NHC can be conservative for 90L as it is no threat to land anytime soon. If it was in 91L's position and the same structure, they would have to initiate advisories ASAP as warnings would be needed.

[Riptide]

The NHC can be conservative for 90L as it is no threat to land anytime soon. If it was in 91L's position and the same structure, they would have to initiate advisories ASAP as warnings would be needed.

Doesn't matter, if something qualifies as a TD or TS; it should be labeled as soon as possible, for the sake of historical accuracy.

[CrazyC83]

The NHC can be conservative for 90L as it is no threat to land anytime soon. If it was in 91L's position and the same structure, they would have to initiate advisories ASAP as warnings would be needed.

Doesn't matter, if something qualifies as a TD or TS; it should be labeled as soon as possible, for the sake of historical accuracy.

That would be the case in the BT in the end afterward, not necessarily operationally.