ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[ilovestorms]

Not a model but the HPC forecast for Friday Morning.

Isn't this keeping it at basically a tropical storm or maybe low Cat 1 hurricane? (I get this from the pressure they have it at..) If that is the case, it makes sense why they have it so far west, but I think it will be stronger than that and therefore go more northerly.

*Disclaimer: This is just my amateur opinion..nothing professional about it!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I would split the difference and go with 55. JMO

I dont think they can since they go by knots. 45kt is about 50mph and 50kt is about 60...unless theyve changed this rule recently?

Doh! Brain fart, I had one.

We're all human.

[CrazyC83]

So what happens if we have winds of 55mph?

They rarely use such in advisories and typically only while inland when surface data supports such. Based on the last aborted Recon flight, the highest SFMR was 46 kt that appeared realistic, and with the FL winds lower, I would go 45 kt.

[Sambucol]

No sign of the ridge building back in on the Euro and if Ernesto has already turned north the ridge to its west might block any westward progression. We will see, but as of now if Ernesto is a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, it looks like a high probability it will turn north into the Gulf

If it does turn north in the Gulf, what part of the coastline would be in its path? TX/LA?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

So what happens if we have winds of 55mph?

They rarely use such in advisories and typically only while inland when surface data supports such. Based on the last aborted Recon flight, the highest SFMR was 46 kt that appeared realistic, and with the FL winds lower, I would go 45 kt.

We saw some at 50kt. I would say 60mph at 11.

[Nederlander]

Looks like there is quite a bit of dry area to the west of Ernesto and south of Hispanola. Not until west of Jamaica does the atosphere moisten up. Could this induce some weakening tomorrow as the dry air is in his path in the short term (next 12-36 hours or so)?

That's upper level WV imagery...

[lester]

At most I would go for right now is 55mph, since it does look a lot better.

there is no 55 mph, it's either 50 mph (45 kts) or 60 mph (50 kts)

[bella_may]

No sign of the ridge building back in on the Euro and if Ernesto has already turned north the ridge to its west might block any westward progression. We will see, but as of now if Ernesto is a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, it looks like a high probability it will turn north into the Gulf

If it does turn north in the Gulf, what part of the coastline would be in its path? TX/LA?

I wouldn't say texas. probably La/Ms/Al/ or florida

[HurricaneAndrew92]

At most I would go for right now is 55mph, since it does look a lot better.

there is no 55 mph, it's either 50 mph (45 kts) or 60 mph (50 kts)

So, Lester 45 or 50kts? What's your guess?

[mcheer23]

No sign of the ridge building back in on the Euro and if Ernesto has already turned north the ridge to its west might block any westward progression. We will see, but as of now if Ernesto is a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, it looks like a high probability it will turn north into the Gulf

If it does turn north in the Gulf, what part of the coastline would be in its path? TX/LA?

Yeah Texas coast to Alabama

[Portastorm]

Hey folks, this is the Ernesto model thread and not the amateur prediction thread. Let's keep the discussion to model runs and what they show and not personal speculation. Thanks.

[GCANE]

Question very quick about the Hot Towers... Hot Towers are very tall cumulonimbus clouds correct? Are they important in tropical cyclone development because they show substantial heating via condensation of the mid-upper troposphere?

Right on the money

[ROCK]

since we are all debating what the next adv will be I will throw my 2 cents in.....

60 mph.....looks to dang good right now to not bump it up. Like I said earlier, it has tapped that pool GCANE was talking about and its only going to go from there. Also slowed down and allow for center consolidation.....IMO, its going to be a cane before current forecast.


not official post, please see top of page for disclaimer..

[HurricaneAndrew92]

In my amateur opinion, Nhc has reasonable evidence for 60mph

[cycloneye]

Who had thought that Ernesto would look like this in the so called Eastern Caribbean graveyard? And this after it was almost an open wave a couple of nights ago. I dont want to imagine when it arrives in the Western Caribbean how strong it may turn into.

Note=To conserve the images and not have them updating you can download by imageshack.us and tinypic.com.

[lester]

So, Lester 45 or 50kts? What's your guess?

45 kts until recon comes in the morning to investigate Ernesto

*The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.*

[HurricaneAndrew92]

since we are all debating what the next adv will be I will throw my 2 cents in.....

60 mph.....looks to dang good right now to not bump it up. Like I said earlier, it has tapped that pool GCANE was talking about and its only going to go from there. Also slowed down and allow for center consolidation.....IMO, its going to be a cane before current forecast.


not official post, please see top of page for disclaimer..

If this happens we could see a cane at 11am

[wxman57]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

[Portastorm]

This is probably worth posting in the ERNESTO model thread too, wxman57.

[bella_may]

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

link?