ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

00Z GFS is rolling


27hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Again it fails as it does not have a storm and now TD6.

yeah I dont understand this unless its the resolution...NHC still puts a lot of weight on it though....




36hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Hurricaneman]

Im more apt to believe the GFDL at the moment with the features the GFS is showing than what the globals are showing with the movement into Central America, the globals can't even initialize the Storm correctly in terms of strength

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

46hr....looks like the same as the 18Z.....so far..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Hurricaneman]

46hr....looks like the same as the 18Z.....so far..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

This is going to be alot and i mean ALOT stronger than depicted in this model run, I think the Global models are completely out to lunch, I would go with the intensity models like HWRF or GFDL right now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

54hr...starting to gain some lat, slows down also, you can see the trof in the midwest....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


69hr.....oh brother...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[littlevince]

Bastardi on twitter:

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

[BigB0882]

I hate when they initialize wrong. I can't even get excited to watch them roll out. GFS has not been able to get a hold on this system at all. Is it too small?

[ROCK]

78hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Weatherfreak000]

When it comes right down to it how can you even buy the GFS at all? The weakness is still there...and yet it's gonna just die? Still not buying it.

[Hurricaneman]

I have to say this about the global models right now, garbage in garbage out, it doesnt even see 91L or TD6 and barely sees what I think will be Hurricane Ernesto as a 1 isobar low north of Houndoras

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

96hr looking better but Yucatan bound

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cheezyWXguy]

Bastardi on twitter:

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

interesting point, it could be a real possibility now that he mentions it, considering the dry air ahead. that being said there are some serious towers going up in the most recent frame and images to come. I wonder which side will win out

[Rgv20]

96hrs out starting to strengthen..

[bamajammer4eva]

Didn't see this posted yet. NOAA's 3-7 day Hazardous outlook indicating Tx/La threat but also heavy rain n the Appalachians so I would guess that would be from the Trough?

[chaser1]

Bastardi on twitter:

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

"dry entrainment bursting", really? (sounds like a hemmoroidal condition); ....and here all along I assumed Ernesto to be going through a bit of "pubescent" diurnal bursting while still being impacted by moderate net upper level shear.

[ROCK]

Bastardi on twitter:

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

do we have a SCAT pass that gets the whole system? little bird told me Ernesto has decoupled (ie the LLC and MLC are decoupled)....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

since the initialization and strength of Ernesto are not even being picked up, don't look to the GFS run for Ernesto at all. Look to it for what it IS best at....predicting synoptic patterns AROUND the storm. Watch how it handles the ridges and trough positioning run to run. 91L may be a very minor influence right now, as it is a minor thing. However, see if it has more of an impact tomorrow on the runs. Assume how a strong TS or minor hurricane would react to the synoptic setup that it predicts... then you will have a better idea at where GFS should be taking Ernesto.
It will eventually get a more accurate start on the storm, but the whole thing shouldn't be thrown out. Focus on what else it can provide clues to.

[gqhebert]

96hrs out starting to strengthen..

would be farther north due to being a deeper system

[ROCK]

117hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[stormhunter7]

may not make it to MX on this run... Belize? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120804%2F00%2Fgfs_atlantic_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=120&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&storm=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=08%2F04%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=29&nextImage=yes