ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[chaser1]

alright, i'll go out on a limb here. I won't weigh this moment regarding where Ernesto will wind up, but will put this out there - regardless of what happens to this storm, if it weakens or does not further develop, I don't believe "dry air" will have had anything to do with it. Furthermore, I dont see dry air being a big factor affecting the development of any of the present systems out there.

[wkwally]

I am still not even 40% sure yet but I have a real sick feeling about us here in South Texas. This is going to be very close to watch over the weekend. I just hope that there will be a more of a good idea where Ernesto is going at the start of the week so we have time to prepare before next weekend. My worst concern is that there is a last minute warning. I also do not like that this could be a major hurricane as the NHC is saying in their report at 11. Will watch very close the next few days. best thing and wishful thinking is it fizzles out.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vaffie]

I sure don't see the latest forecasts by the NHC indicating this to be a Mexico storm. I mean after 5 days, it would have to take quite a left turn to end up in Mexico... So I don't think they even believe that's going to happen.

Keep in mind everyone that the NHC uses a cone of average error rates at 5 days around its best estimate of its future track. So it can most certainly end up being outside that cone, as we have seen countless times before with other storms. That cone if extrapolated could take it into southern Mexico all the way to the panhandle of Florida. It is using this track because it is splitting the difference between the models, some of which take it further west and some much further north. Only time will tell which track it takes. I personally don't like the fact that extrapolating the NHC's official track takes it roughly in the direction of SE Texas but as has been seen time and again, sometimes it is safer to be in the official track of a storm 7 days out than on either side of that track.

[Weatherfreak000]

I hate to disrespect these models, but this looks ridiculous. The models aren't even initializing the storm properly and then wanna open it to a wave. Well i'm here to tell ya it ain't gonna happen. Open a WV loop and you'll clearly observe banding features around the core of the system, as well as the dry air decreasing ahead of his path. It's enough dry air to keep this thing from being a cat 1 by the time we wake up sure....but is it really enough to kill this? No way. Every dynamic model I am looking at sees an obvious weakness towards the NGOM, and if I was a betting man, that's still where my money goes.


Note S2K disclaimer at top of page, and as always, check with NHC forecast for official information.

[StormClouds63]

I'm still hoping for an Earl-like demise (2004) in the eastern Caribbean.

[wkwally]

I do not wish this on anyone but I hope that there will be plenty of time to prepare for whoever it makes landfall with.

[mcheer23]

Im shocked that UKMET joined with the GFS and EURO..

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm still hoping for an Earl-like demise (2004) in the eastern Caribbean.

You and me both StormClouds. I don't want it, don't need it, can't use it...but I don't want anyone else to have to deal with it either. But eventually, somebody......somewhere, is going to have to deal with it. Just be prepared.

[Texashawk]

Sometimes, just like 'the good ol' days', you have to go with your gut and damn the models. GIGO sometimes, pure and simple. At some point, the models will either resolve properly with initializations based on reality, or the NHC gets to make a hard call.

[Weatherfreak000]

Sometimes, just like 'the good ol' days', you have to go with your gut and damn the models. GIGO sometimes, pure and simple. At some point, the models will either resolve properly with initializations based on reality, or the NHC gets to make a hard call.

It's not like we haven't seen this sort of thing before, with Debby EURO stubbornly held onto the wrong solution for what seemed like forever. You'll just randomly wake up and see these models will swing all the way across the GOM...happens all the time.

I'll tell you one thing, this solution that GFS, EURO, UKMET sees? I seriously doubt strongly it's not gonna happen because there is too much physical evidence that it shouldn't. Confidence 90%.

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian deep in the BOC much like 12z

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

[mcheer23]

Canadian deep in the BOC much like 12z

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

Dont know if im looking at the right thing but that shows basically the same as the NHC track..going into the gulf..

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian deep in the BOC much like 12z

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

Dont know if im looking at the right thing but that shows basically the same as the NHC track..going into the gulf..

Thats last nights run which had a heading towards New Orleans. Refresh and maybe that will help or the individual images are here.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

[ozonepete]

alright, i'll go out on a limb here. I won't weigh this moment regarding where Ernesto will wind up, but will put this out there - regardless of what happens to this storm, if it weakens or does not further develop, I don't believe "dry air" will have had anything to do with it. Furthermore, I dont see dry air being a big factor affecting the development of any of the present systems out there.

Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

GOES WATER VAPOR - ONLY SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT THE HIGHEST LAYER IT SEES IT.
NOT GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.

CIMSS MID_LEVEL WATER VAPOR - SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT MID_LEVELS.
VERY GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.

[mcheer23]

Ahh i see

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png


Wow...
Models shifting south.

[BigB0882]

Is the Canadian initializing any better than the other models which seems to be so wacky?

I hate to say it but if the CMC is in agreement with the Euro and GFS then those models should be looked at cautiously. lol

[Kingarabian]

alright, i'll go out on a limb here. I won't weigh this moment regarding where Ernesto will wind up, but will put this out there - regardless of what happens to this storm, if it weakens or does not further develop, I don't believe "dry air" will have had anything to do with it. Furthermore, I dont see dry air being a big factor affecting the development of any of the present systems out there.

Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

GOES WATER VAPOR - ONLY SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT THE HIGHEST LAYER IT SEES IT.
NOT GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.
CIMSS MID_LEVEL WATER VAPOR - SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT MID_LEVELS.
VERY GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.

uh dud no wai. dry air no matter where it is iz gonna tear dis storm apart because all models say so k?

[mcheer23]

Uhh...Can someone tell me if this HWRF 00z run is messed up..? shows it stalling out near Nicaragua...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[BigB0882]

alright, i'll go out on a limb here. I won't weigh this moment regarding where Ernesto will wind up, but will put this out there - regardless of what happens to this storm, if it weakens or does not further develop, I don't believe "dry air" will have had anything to do with it. Furthermore, I dont see dry air being a big factor affecting the development of any of the present systems out there.

Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

GOES WATER VAPOR - ONLY SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT THE HIGHEST LAYER IT SEES IT.
NOT GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.
CIMSS MID_LEVEL WATER VAPOR - SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT MID_LEVELS.
VERY GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.

uh dud no wai. dry air no matter where it is iz gonna tear dis storm apart because all models say so k?

Good one.

[Texashawk]

Clearly there's some garbage data being used for all these models. Remember that the HH flight was aborted due to equipment failure, so possibly no good atmospheric data to use?