mcheer23 wrote:Florida1118 wrote:mcheer23 wrote:I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..
They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.
So basically all these models with the south shift lately are out to lunch?
Yes, as they don't start correctly. Basically start with incorrect strength, end with incorrect position of the storm.