What about Tornados?

[seaswing]

I am about 60 mi. east of Cedar key which is from what I see on the prob. chart forecasted to be right in the direct path. I am inland and I read that with shear we could get the tornados with the rain.... what does it look like it terms of tornados right now? I got home a little while ago and we have had hardly any rain so far, but dark.... The sky looks really awesome though. You can see the banding of the clouds moving in.

[Josephine96]

Tornadoes are always possible with tropical systems.. I remember when Gabrielle came through in 2001 she spawned 2 tornadoes in Brevard County and 1 here in Osceola..

From what I am hearing.. the Orlando mets are even warning us here in Orlando about the twister possibility.. so the threat must be 1/2 way decent since we are south of you guys and being warned...

[wxman57]

Generally, the tornado threat increases with the strength of a storm. The weaker the storm at landfall, the less tornadic activity. Tornadoes are also more common in the right-front quadrant, which is usually where the heaviest squalls are. I'd say you'd better be more worried about potentially 10-20" of rain vs. an isolated F0 tornado.

[Rainband]

Generally, the tornado threat increases with the strength of a storm. The weaker the storm at landfall, the less tornadic activity. Tornadoes are also more common in the right-front quadrant, which is usually where the heaviest squalls are. I'd say you'd better be more worried about potentially 10-20" of rain vs. an isolated F0 tornado.

Seems like the tops of the storm is being sheared off??? Is this temporary???

[weatherluvr]

Would a storm that is undergoing moderate to strong shear be more prone to tornadic activity than a system with low shear?

[CocoaBill]

No it would not, from the way I understand things, weatherluvr.

Shear can be a change in wind speed with heights and not necessarily a change in direction with heights. Tornadic activity and shear is usually associated with a change in wind direction and speed with height.

If I am mistaken, perhaps one of our experts can enlighten......

[ColdFront77]

The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Norman, Oklahoma isn't even mentioning anything about the chance of tornadic thunderstorm across north-central Florida with this system... even a slight risk is indicated in some sort of discussion from them.