ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[bamajammer4eva]

NRL has it too



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[ozonepete]

Yes these are old but he's thought the weak storm idea for a few days which is what the models are showing. He is still saying the same thing though tonight.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
my forecast for td 5 remains the same. Storm by Windwards, but weakens to a wave in Caribbean, then may be a problem in gulf later
5:26 PM - 1 Aug 12 via web

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
NO change on Ernesto. Storm may reach its peak intensity next 36 hours, and could be mainly open wave by 60 hrs.
6:52 PM - 2 Aug 12 via web

Wonder if he'll be right??? He thinks the dry air will take its toll on Esto in the Caribbean but it may become a threat further west.

He has no credentials for tropical cyclone forecasting. There are many pro mets on here who do, but he definitely doesn't.

[Texashawk]

I wish AFM was around. He'd know what to do. But seriously, where's he been? Hopefully not run off...

[ozonepete]

looks like some dry air has been sucked into the Ernesto at mid levels and is working its way around the system? curious how much tropical moisture is there to fill in the dry air.

There isn't any dry air getting sucked into it. It is a maturing tropical Storm that is fluctuating in strength due to some lingering shear and a lack of good symmetry.

[Rgv20]

ECMWF has Ernesto making a final landfall in Central Mexico very close to Tampico..

[ozonepete]

I wish AFM was around. He'd know what to do. But seriously, where's he been? Hopefully not run off...

Yeah, miss him too. There's no one better.

[Hurricane Alexis]

AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS

winds up to 60 mph per best track

Where can i see this at?

here:
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

the most recent report is at the bottom, done every six hours or so

Thanks

[ConvergenceZone]

The only way I'm going to buy into the Mexico, BOC model predictions is if I wake up tomorrow and the storm is weaker than it is now. If I wake up tomorrow and the storm is stronger than it is right now, then I think the models better put the crack pipe down, because they obviously didn't expect the storm to strengthen....

[Rgv20]

Below is the 0zGFS Individual Ensemble Track..

[ROCK]

well that clears everything up RGV.....

but you can see there is a big spread starting to take shape....

[Rgv20]

Looking at the Ensembles, after Ernesto makes landfall in the Yucatan anywhere from New Orleans to Veracruz is fair game. We have a lot more model runs to go ROCK!

[jinftl]

Conpare newer model consensus at 6z and you see more models continuing a west to wnw heading into the yucatan and belize...some still point ominously nw into the central gulf though

Below is the 0zGFS Individual Ensemble Track..

[Huckster]

It is good that things have been narrowed down by the GFS now. Bayou Lafourch on right and the Nicaraguan/Costa Rican Border on the left. If the GFS changes it's mind later on or if any of the other models decide to agree with it, then this matter should go to court.

[summersquall]

Hot Towers looking pretty ominous. Appears to this untrained eye to be organizing and intensifying...

[Shuriken]

-70 tops on IR, so obviously venting nicely at 200mb now.

Bastardi going to eat crow.

[lester]

Ernesto up to 60 mph, forecast to go up to 90 mph

...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER...INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR
ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 67.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

2 more hours till Recon departs?

[jinftl]

Slight south anf west shift at 5am...center now shows coming into the Yucatan south of Cozumel and crossing the entire northern Yucatan before emerging in Gulf.

5am Discussion excerpt: THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.





Prior track showed the storm clipping the NE Yucatan

[lester]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER...INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR
ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 67.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT45 KNHC 040847
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS
FROM 0135 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A
MUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN
36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN
EARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN
WEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.1N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.5N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 17.5N 83.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 21.5N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[jinftl]

Seeing southward shift of several models - suggesting 2 Mexico landfalls are possible