ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[JamesCaneTracker]

[tailgater]

Ernesto passing a little south of this buoy

[tolakram]

Who's killing off Ernresto? 0600z runs starting to look scary in terms of intensity. The southern tracks just keep the storm too far south to feel the weakness...but they don't keep ernesto weak

GFS, EURO, CMC all have Ernesto weak and into the yuk. Maybe I should have said the globals.

[JamesCaneTracker]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041114
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 08 20120804
110530 1551N 06729W 8429 01581 0111 +175 +074 110035 037 035 000 03
110600 1550N 06730W 8425 01579 0107 +171 +077 111035 036 034 000 00
110630 1548N 06731W 8432 01572 0105 +174 +079 109034 034 034 000 00
110700 1547N 06731W 8428 01576 0103 +175 +082 109035 035 033 000 00
110730 1545N 06732W 8430 01572 0103 +175 +084 109034 035 034 000 00
110800 1543N 06733W 8429 01573 0102 +177 +086 109034 035 034 001 00
110830 1542N 06733W 8429 01575 0103 +174 +087 111034 035 033 001 00
110900 1540N 06734W 8429 01572 0099 +179 +088 115035 036 034 000 00
110930 1539N 06735W 8429 01571 0099 +176 +089 113036 037 033 001 00
111000 1537N 06735W 8430 01570 0099 +174 +090 112037 038 034 001 00
111030 1536N 06736W 8428 01571 0100 +172 +089 109037 038 035 000 00
111100 1534N 06737W 8429 01571 0099 +173 +090 110037 039 035 000 00
111130 1533N 06737W 8428 01571 0099 +172 +089 110037 037 034 001 00
111200 1531N 06738W 8430 01567 0098 +172 +090 109036 037 034 001 00
111230 1530N 06739W 8430 01567 0096 +173 +090 109038 040 034 001 00
111300 1528N 06739W 8430 01566 0094 +175 +091 109040 041 034 000 00
111330 1527N 06740W 8430 01567 0093 +178 +091 108040 041 034 000 00
111400 1525N 06741W 8428 01570 0094 +176 +092 107038 038 033 000 00
111430 1524N 06741W 8430 01566 0092 +180 +092 107039 039 034 001 00
111500 1522N 06742W 8429 01567 0091 +180 +093 105037 038 034 001 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Closeup visible image. A small dot in the middle.

[jinftl]

Could it be an issue of timing with the weakness impacting Ernesto? NHC mentions good model agreement in building a ridge west with the storm until Monday morning. By then the current forecast has him southwest of Jamaica as a hurricane. Small changes in heading after that can big difference in track (wnw at 285 vs wnw at 305 etc)

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

[tolakram]

[Hurricane Alexis]

Wouldn't be surprised if Ernesto was upgraded to a hurricane in the next advisory.

[AHS2011]

let's see what else Ernesto has up his sleeve for today. anyone thinking some RI today?

[tolakram]

Pretty favorable environment, as far as shear goes.

[JamesCaneTracker]

If Recon supports the Upgrade then yes it should be upgraded... In the next half hour to 45 minutes we should be getting the data from the first pass... They are setting up a Northwest to Southeast pass now!

[JamesCaneTracker]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041124
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 09 20120804
111530 1521N 06743W 8427 01568 0088 +183 +093 104037 038 034 001 00
111600 1519N 06743W 8430 01565 0086 +185 +094 106038 039 035 000 00
111630 1518N 06744W 8429 01565 0085 +185 +095 103038 038 035 000 00
111700 1516N 06745W 8432 01561 0084 +185 +095 104037 038 036 000 00
111730 1514N 06745W 8429 01564 0082 +185 +095 104038 039 035 001 00
111800 1513N 06746W 8428 01564 0080 +190 +095 102038 039 036 001 00
111830 1511N 06747W 8430 01560 0077 +191 +095 101038 039 035 001 00
111900 1510N 06747W 8432 01559 0076 +193 +095 097037 037 035 000 00
111930 1508N 06748W 8429 01560 0075 +194 +096 097036 036 034 000 00
112000 1507N 06749W 8431 01557 0073 +195 +096 096034 035 035 000 00
112030 1505N 06749W 8429 01557 0072 +195 +096 094034 034 036 000 00
112100 1503N 06750W 8430 01556 0070 +198 +096 094031 034 035 002 00
112130 1502N 06751W 8429 01557 0071 +194 +097 093028 029 035 000 00
112200 1500N 06751W 8429 01557 0074 +191 +097 086026 028 035 001 00
112230 1458N 06752W 8428 01560 0074 +191 +096 087026 027 034 001 00
112300 1457N 06753W 8429 01559 0073 +195 +096 093028 029 035 000 00
112330 1455N 06753W 8428 01559 0071 +195 +096 094029 030 034 000 00
112400 1454N 06754W 8432 01555 0068 +200 +096 094028 028 034 001 00
112430 1452N 06755W 8429 01555 0067 +200 +097 092028 028 034 001 00
112500 1450N 06756W 8429 01554 0064 +200 +098 094028 029 033 001 00
$$
;

[jinftl]

The Monday 5am forecast position has been moving further south and west since yesterday - not because the storm is weaker and not feeling the weakness, rather that the ridge steering him now is strong and he hasn't gained much latitude.

- At 5am Friday, the 72-hour forecast put the storm at the following point on Monday at 5am
72H 06/0600Z 17.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

-At 5am today, the 48-hour forcast put the storm at the following point on Monday at 5am
48H 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

That is about about a 60 or 70 mile shift to the sw...that can make a big difference with future track.

[tolakram]

There may be a dry air issue. Look at the dry air being pulled up behind the circulation.

[tailgater]

Curacao radar
http://www.meteo.an/SatRadarImages/Img_ ... i_Loop.asp

[tolakram]

[AJC3]

Wouldn't be surprised if Ernesto was upgraded to a hurricane in the next advisory.

I'd be completely and utterly stunned. You're talking about raising the initial intensity by 15 knot by the time 11 AM rolls around. There is absolutely nothing in the objective analyses, satellite or M/I that suggests this will occur.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Looks like there's a good chance of RI. If it keeps It up, a hurricane at 11 is possible.

[tolakram]

[JamesCaneTracker]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041134
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 10 20120804
112530 1449N 06756W 8430 01554 0065 +200 +099 097030 030 034 000 00
112600 1447N 06757W 8428 01556 0065 +200 +099 092028 029 033 001 00
112630 1446N 06758W 8431 01553 0063 +201 +099 086026 027 034 000 00
112700 1444N 06758W 8429 01554 0061 +204 +100 080024 025 033 001 00
112730 1442N 06759W 8430 01551 0061 +203 +101 077024 025 034 000 00
112800 1441N 06800W 8427 01555 0057 +208 +101 071025 025 032 000 00
112830 1439N 06800W 8429 01551 0057 +207 +102 069024 024 033 000 00
112900 1437N 06801W 8428 01551 0054 +210 +102 064023 024 033 000 00
112930 1436N 06802W 8429 01550 0053 +210 +102 059022 023 032 001 03
113000 1434N 06802W 8425 01555 0051 +212 +103 057019 022 026 002 00
113030 1433N 06801W 8428 01551 0049 +217 +104 056019 019 029 000 00
113100 1431N 06800W 8429 01549 0050 +215 +104 048018 019 027 001 00
113130 1430N 06800W 8430 01549 0050 +215 +104 050018 019 026 001 00
113200 1428N 06759W 8429 01548 0049 +211 +103 049017 018 026 000 00
113230 1426N 06758W 8428 01548 0052 +205 +103 045016 017 024 001 03
113300 1425N 06757W 8428 01549 0055 +200 +103 047015 016 020 001 00
113330 1424N 06755W 8429 01548 0056 +199 +103 054012 014 021 000 00
113400 1423N 06754W 8426 01549 0059 +193 +102 060006 010 022 000 00
113430 1422N 06753W 8432 01543 0061 +190 +102 063002 005 021 002 00
113500 1421N 06752W 8429 01546 0066 +182 +101 319002 005 023 002 00
$$
;

Looks like Pressure is UP 2mb to 1005mb.

Based on the recon data from this first pass it looks to me like the data doesn't even support the current intensity though there is still plenty more of the storm to fly through!