ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Wouldn't be surprised if Ernesto was upgraded to a hurricane in the next advisory.

I'd be completely and utterly stunned. You're talking about raising the initial intensity by 15 knot by the time 11 AM rolls around. There is absolutely nothing in the objective analyses, satellite or M/I that suggests this will occur.

We'll see what recon finds. If they don't run into problems. Probably a 65-70mPh storm.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hopefully recon info can get into the next global model runs. otherwise, we'll need to wait until tonight to see any potential shift north out of them. still sticking to my original prognosis for now.

[jinftl]

what makes it appear ernesto is rapidly intensifying? The pressure dropped 2 millibars in 6 hours. If he was rapidly intensifying, we would expect to see deepening along the lines of a rate of at least 2.5 millibars (0.074 inHg) per hour for a minimum of 12 hours.

Looks like there's a good chance of RI. If it keeps It up, a hurricane at 11 is possible.

[AJC3]

Looks like there's a good chance of RI. If it keeps It up, a hurricane at 11 is totally possible.

At 11 AM? Not gonna happen. While the satellite presentation is improving, it's not doing so rapidly. In fact, the presentation of TD 6 (which looks more like a tropical storm RIGHT NOW) in both visible and M/I is more impressive than that of Ernesto IMO.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here, gang.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

what makes it appear ernesto is rapidly intensifying? The pressure dropped 2 millibars in 6 hours. If he was rapidly intensifying, we would expect to see deepening along the lines of a rate of at least 2.5 millibars (0.074 inHg) per hour for a minimum of 12 hours.

Looks like there's a good chance of RI. If it keeps It up, a hurricane at 11 is possible.

I said there was a good chance, meaning that it's possible we could see it.

[GCANE]

Even though Ernie is firing cold-topped convection, he is yet to RI.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt05L.html

IMHO, the problem is the 200mb PV anomaly ahead of him.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor2.GIF

Its interacting with his LLC, the effect can be seen on 500mb vorticity which is centered SE of the LLC

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor2.GIF

Core temp profile also looks ragged.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 9_TANO.GIF

Seems like he is pushing the UL PV Anomaly out ahead of him.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

When will we get info from recon. I know it's going out there but what time will we get it?

[JamesCaneTracker]

we are getting it now... I believe they just made their first pass which showed a pressure of 1005mb

[Extratropical94]

Will there be an intermediate advisory 11A because there is an active watch/warning now?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

we are getting it now... I believe they just made their first pass which showed a pressure of 1005mb

Yeah I'm in the recon forum... So far.not supporting even 60mph.

[JamesCaneTracker]

11am will be the next complete package. 2am, 8am, 2pm, and 8pm are the intermediate packages.

[JamesCaneTracker]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041144
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 11 20120804
113530 1419N 06751W 8429 01550 0067 +185 +098 113002 005 023 002 00
113600 1418N 06750W 8428 01550 0066 +186 +097 100003 004 020 000 00
113630 1417N 06749W 8435 01543 0067 +187 +097 186006 009 021 000 00
113700 1415N 06748W 8425 01555 0070 +182 +097 207009 010 020 001 03
113730 1414N 06749W 8419 01560 0074 +178 +097 218009 011 024 004 00
113800 1412N 06750W 8433 01548 0079 +172 +096 224008 010 024 006 00
113830 1411N 06751W 8429 01553 0082 +163 +095 238007 009 028 008 00
113900 1410N 06752W 8432 01544 0083 +162 +093 241007 010 029 008 00
113930 1409N 06754W 8430 01549 0081 +166 +091 151001 004 024 006 00
114000 1409N 06755W 8430 01550 0077 +173 +089 085001 002 023 003 00
114030 1407N 06756W 8425 01557 0082 +169 +089 352004 005 025 003 00
114100 1407N 06758W 8433 01549 0079 +174 +089 336005 006 023 001 00
114130 1406N 06759W 8428 01557 0078 +179 +091 331009 010 024 001 00
114200 1405N 06800W 8429 01557 0081 +176 +092 335010 011 025 001 00
114230 1404N 06802W 8428 01559 0081 +176 +092 336009 010 025 001 00
114300 1403N 06803W 8429 01557 0087 +167 +094 324010 011 025 002 00
114330 1402N 06804W 8430 01555 0088 +165 +093 318010 010 024 001 00
114400 1401N 06806W 8429 01559 0086 +171 +093 318008 010 024 001 00
114430 1400N 06807W 8429 01559 0089 +167 +092 309006 007 021 001 00
114500 1359N 06809W 8428 01560 0089 +170 +092 293005 006 022 001 00
$$
;

[AJC3]

Will there be an intermediate advisory 11A because there is an active watch/warning now?

Unless they got a hold of Jamaican gov't since 5 AM, then no. There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect as of 5 AM.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Some one please take over! I am heading out. Thanks!

[tolakram]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 041138
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012

AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[JamesCaneTracker]

As of 8am:

000
WTNT65 KNHC 041138
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012

AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[AJC3]

As of 8am:

000
WTNT65 KNHC 041138
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012

AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Right on cue...

[tolakram]

[Sanibel]

It's still in the east Caribbean and doing fairly well considering. You could walk away for 24 hours and pretty much predict what you would see when you came back. This business is addicting and you have to check every hour or two no matter.

[jinftl]

Buoy located about 60 miles north of center of Ernesto now - winds sustained are about 35mph (31 kts), gusting to 42mph (37kts) and pressure is 29.75".

Station 42059 - Eastern Caribbean
located: 15.054 N 67.472 W