ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Any chance intensity stays at 50kts?

[wxman57]

No reason to get excited. The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking.

The global models have been absolutely wrong with this storm so far.

The Canadian, certainly, I'd agree with you on, but it's never been a good global model for the tropics. The Euro and GFS, on the other hand, have done an excellent job with Ernesto, forecasting a weaker storm in the East Caribbean and a westerly track toward the Yucatan.

[Texashawk]

Best looking TD EVAH!!!!

[wxman57]

Any chance intensity stays at 50kts?

Nope. It appears the true max winds may be between 35 and 40 kts, assuming the plane didn't sample Ernesto's strongest winds. If the plane did, then winds are closer to 30-35 kts.

[floridasun78]

Hmmm...

hmmmm????

[jinftl]

There's the more westerly track into Belize/Mexico which seems to be the thinking right now...but then there is the 2 rogue lines about 600 miles away from the Mexico club...let's see if these fall into line with the others. Not buying those at all.

Hmmm...

hmmmm????

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041354
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 24 20120804
134530 1351N 06849W 8422 01574 0103 +157 +094 271008 008 030 009 00
134600 1353N 06848W 8435 01561 0114 +139 +093 273008 009 034 014 00
134630 1354N 06847W 8426 01566 0116 +132 +091 278010 011 035 020 00
134700 1355N 06846W 8433 01559 0117 +131 +087 275012 012 042 025 00
134730 1356N 06845W 8422 01569 0116 +132 +084 275013 015 044 016 00
134800 1358N 06843W 8439 01551 0103 +152 +082 281015 016 044 015 00
134830 1359N 06842W 8425 01568 0102 +157 +083 284014 015 035 007 00
134900 1400N 06841W 8427 01566 0100 +160 +084 312010 012 028 008 00
134930 1401N 06840W 8424 01569 0092 +169 +086 325006 008 027 003 00
135000 1402N 06838W 8429 01561 0089 +173 +089 319005 006 024 001 00
135030 1403N 06837W 8428 01564 0094 +163 +092 289007 009 026 001 00
135100 1405N 06836W 8430 01561 0094 +162 +094 283008 010 028 004 00
135130 1406N 06835W 8430 01558 0102 +150 +094 269011 014 029 007 00
135200 1407N 06833W 8424 01565 0099 +153 +092 285015 017 029 007 00
135230 1408N 06832W 8430 01559 0099 +154 +092 285016 017 028 005 00
135300 1409N 06831W 8435 01553 0101 +151 +091 287012 016 030 007 00
135330 1411N 06830W 8423 01568 0100 +156 +091 278010 011 030 006 00
135400 1412N 06829W 8430 01564 0099 +159 +091 269009 013 028 005 03
135430 1414N 06828W 8426 01566 0088 +176 +091 296006 007 022 001 00
135500 1415N 06828W 8425 01566 0083 +183 +093 277003 006 018 000 00
$$
;

[cheezyWXguy]

I do remember there being some speculation yesterday from some of yall about this happening today because of some unfavorable conditions right around this area. The storm will probably weaken and have to reorganize, but i still think this is just putting off the intensification phase to a later time. Unless it completely opens up Id be pretty surprised if it weren't a hurricane by the time it the Yucatan

[HurricaneAndrew92]

For some reason I heard the nhc will upgrade this to 70mph on TV...SERIOUSLY doubt that.

[Riptide]

For some reason I heard the nhc will upgrade this to 70mph on TV...SERIOUSLY doubt that.

However, it would be a bad move to downgrade it as well; it gives the public a false sense of safety. Perhaps NHC will not change it.

[floridasun78]

There's the more westerly track into Belize/Mexico which seems to be the thinking right now...but then there is the 2 rogue lines about 600 miles away from the Mexico club...let's see if these fall into line with the others. Not buying those at all.

Hmmm...

hmmmm????

same here their stronger system put model still want take it west unless it weak to weaker ts

[Extratropical94]

For some reason I heard the nhc will upgrade this to 70mph on TV...SERIOUSLY doubt that.

Lol, where did you here that? That is a very irresponsible statement if such a thing is shown on public media.

I guess they will make use of the word fluctuating to keep both doors open.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041404
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 25 20120804
135530 1417N 06827W 8433 01557 0083 +180 +096 247003 003 016 001 00
135600 1418N 06827W 8425 01563 0083 +178 +098 205003 004 014 001 00
135630 1420N 06827W 8436 01552 0086 +171 +099 218004 004 016 002 03
135700 1421N 06826W 8424 01562 0085 +172 +099 253004 005 021 003 00
135730 1423N 06824W 8429 01556 0086 +170 +098 293005 006 023 004 00
135800 1424N 06823W 8429 01555 0076 +183 +097 223005 007 021 001 00
135830 1425N 06822W 8431 01555 0076 +181 +097 207008 008 022 005 00
135900 1426N 06821W 8426 01559 0076 +183 +097 195009 010 027 012 00
135930 1427N 06819W 8428 01556 0076 +181 +097 185012 012 029 014 00
140000 1429N 06818W 8430 01555 0088 +162 +098 178014 016 028 016 00
140030 1430N 06817W 8433 01554 0100 +142 +096 158018 019 048 026 00
140100 1431N 06816W 8418 01563 0094 +151 +093 149019 020 048 021 00
140130 1432N 06814W 8435 01548 0088 +167 +089 138015 019 038 010 00
140200 1433N 06813W 8437 01551 0087 +175 +088 139026 028 034 005 00
140230 1435N 06812W 8421 01571 0085 +180 +089 130026 027 029 001 00
140300 1436N 06811W 8429 01564 0090 +174 +091 121029 030 027 000 00
140330 1437N 06810W 8425 01565 0091 +171 +094 114033 033 028 001 00
140400 1438N 06808W 8430 01562 0095 +166 +095 116033 033 030 005 00
140430 1439N 06807W 8428 01566 0100 +159 +095 117031 032 032 011 00
140500 1440N 06806W 8428 01564 0098 +162 +093 117028 030 037 016 00
$$
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

For some reason I heard the nhc will upgrade this to 70mph on TV...SERIOUSLY doubt that.

However, it would be a bad move to downgrade it as well; it gives the public a false sense of safety. Perhaps NHC will not change it.

If I was the NHC I would say 50mph. It's a hard decision.

[SFLcane]

Great source for loops...http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=antil&url=../imgs/wv2_antil_anim.gif

[Kludge]

So many factors have to be juuuuust right.

Low shear....check
High SSTs....check
Low land interraction....check
Good ventilation...check
Forward speed not too fast....check
Available surrounding moisture....nope.

The more I study these things the more I wonder how a hurricane has ever formed.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

For some reason I heard the nhc will upgrade this to 70mph on TV...SERIOUSLY doubt that.

Lol, where did you here that? That is a very irresponsible statement if such a thing is shown on public media.

I guess they will make use of the word fluctuating to keep both doors open.

Well, should they downgrade it? Riptide and I are thinking of that.

[Nederlander]

I am seeing a lot of shock and awe/knee-jerk reactions. Let him choke out this dry air, pull himself together and we will have 'cane tomorrow imo. He's overcame every obstacle thus far. No reason to believe he won't do the same here. He'll be getting into very favorable conditions in the next couple of days.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Maximum SW was 55mph and 1004 for pressure according to wunderground.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Maximum SW was 55mph and 1004 for pressure according to wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 05_hd.html