ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[pcolaman]

6z GFDL at 126 hours:

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/4505 ... msl126.png

This certainly could be a disaster in the making, if it verifies.

Lets hope not !!! Could be a monster in disguise !! Ivan all over again !!

[Stormlover2012]

no bec this system is organizing, i mean rem nhc has a hurr tom not today

[Hammy]

there is definitely weakening going on as the pressure in the center is steadily rising with each pass through the center (though not really known why--could the GFS have been on to something all along?) so it makes sense that they aren't finding stronger winds

[wxman57]

Is anybody other than me surprised that the NHC didn't shift the track a little southward?

No, not surprised at all. No reason to shift it from one model run to the other.

[brunota2003]

I'll start adding in images with the next set of HDOBs.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041514
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 32 20120804
150530 1538N 06931W 8428 01582 0113 +175 +096 080036 037 033 000 00
150600 1538N 06933W 8422 01588 0113 +171 +096 080037 038 032 000 00
150630 1538N 06935W 8434 01578 0112 +175 +096 078037 037 032 002 00
150700 1538N 06937W 8429 01584 0113 +175 +096 077037 037 033 001 00
150730 1538N 06939W 8428 01583 0111 +176 +097 077035 036 031 003 00
150800 1538N 06941W 8428 01586 0110 +180 +097 076034 036 028 000 00
150830 1538N 06943W 8429 01584 0111 +177 +098 074035 036 030 000 00
150900 1538N 06945W 8428 01585 0117 +168 +097 075036 036 031 005 00
150930 1538N 06947W 8431 01582 0120 +166 +094 075036 036 032 002 00
151000 1538N 06949W 8420 01593 0114 +176 +091 073033 035 033 000 00
151030 1538N 06951W 8430 01583 0116 +171 +092 074033 033 031 001 00
151100 1538N 06953W 8433 01580 0114 +172 +093 076030 033 029 002 00
151130 1538N 06955W 8428 01585 0116 +168 +095 074031 031 023 000 00
151200 1538N 06957W 8433 01580 0114 +174 +096 074030 031 021 001 00
151230 1538N 06957W 8433 01580 0111 +176 +097 075032 032 022 000 00
151300 1538N 07000W 8425 01586 0110 +175 +098 073032 032 021 001 00
151330 1538N 07002W 8430 01581 0113 +172 +099 073031 032 025 001 00
151400 1538N 07004W 8424 01589 0118 +165 +098 073030 032 030 003 00
151430 1538N 07006W 8427 01585 0133 +143 +096 067029 032 035 010 00
151500 1538N 07008W 8423 01593 0124 +165 +092 066027 027 032 005 03
$$
;

[Weatherfreak000]

A few things to note: First of all, Ernesto is fine. I am highly disappointed by members here I won't name seeing whatever it is they wanna see, posting stuff that surely they must know is not true, and all along doing it for the sole purpose of "nailing their forecast". Really? That's no different that the people I disagree with IMO.


Ernesto is doing much better than people are giving him credit for. We ALWAYS knew he was gonna run into some dry air. What I personally didn't expect has how expansive the western quad became, and how nicely Ernesto has wrapped the dry air around the core successfully without squashing the core itself. Dry air by itself is rarely enough to kill a storm.


Ernesto will do what it has consistently done and start refiring deep convection around midday, take it to the bank. We have a WHOLE DAY to watch him, and he still won't be past Jamaica.


My forecast is still NGOM. GFDL is gonna nail it again, just like it did with Katrina. The model that just like back then, is actually showing what the storm is DOING. STOP worrying about what model runs show, open up a satellite loop and educate yourselves here people. We need bright minds deciphering the information and breaking new ground in our field. If i've learned anything, ANYTHING in all my years at Storm2k, it's "If you live by a model, you'll die by it", and that is what is gonna happen when all of these forecasts bust, and I truly believe they will.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[randge]

This is a great place to see what a lot of knowlegeable people think about these systems. Unfortunately in replying to an individual poster you get a quote box that includes all the stuff in the individual post including graphics. That means, as you see above, the same Weather Underground map appears four times. That's unnecessary and annoying when things get busy (and begin to affect folk's vital interests).

We should be judicious when replying to posts - especially when we get storms cranking up and heading for populated areas.

[Zanthe]

Glad to see the NHC didn't shift the track south there, really surprised that it's only 50MPH, and even more surprised that it's 1008 mb. That seems...weird, for a system with such convection to have that high of a pressure. Should start to really ramp up, in my opinion though. Pressure should start to drop soon with this convection and organization burst, and wind will slowly correspond. Still not sure what it'll peak as, or where it'll make landfall, but I personally think this is a fantastic looking storm, and i'm beyond surprised that it's so...weak.

[Portastorm]

This is a great place to see what a lot of knowlegeable people think about these systems. Unfortunately in replying to an individual poster you get a quote box that includes all the stuff in the individual post including graphics. That means, as you see above, the same Weather Underground map appears four times. That's unnecessary and annoying when things get busy (and begin to affect folk's vital interests).

We should be judicious when replying to posts - especially when we get storms cranking up and heading for populated areas.

Thank you, randge. What he said ...

[Stormlover2012]

gfdl might get it right but it till be cen tex so sw la if it gets it right

[Portastorm]

gfdl might get it right but it till be cen tex so sw la if it gets it right

Stormlover2012, this is a post that should be on the Ernesto model thread please. This thread is for general storm discussion, satellite appearance, measurements, data, etc. Thank you.

[wxman57]

Just because the GFDL got one right 7 years ago doesn't mean it should be trusted. I certainly don't pay much attention to it. And, unfortunately, the new and improved hurricane model (HWRF) isn't proving to be any better. I'm still thinking Mexico (twice).

[hurricanes1234]

What is really going on with this storm? Look at the impressive appearance on satellite imagery and that is how strong it is?! That has to be the weakest storm with that well-organized structure I have ever seen!

It could be still 60mph, still haven't sampled the eastern side, thats where the winds and moist air are. Check back in 2hours and 30mins should be upgraded if this is true.

Thanks....my comment was slightly aggressive because of how stunned I was when I saw that Ernesto was only 50 mph. Sorry if I offended anyone.

[Weatherfreak000]

More often than not, as Air Force Met stated, a model that doesn't initialize a storm properly hasn't got a whole great deal of an effect on the run itself. This go around, not the same. Low and Upper level steering currents for a strong TS or an OPEN WAVE (So ridiiculous) are vastly different leading all the way up to wherever along the Gulf Coast he eventually goes.


Sometimes, it's time to not let yourself die by the models, and use your own gut. Mine is telling me this guy is going North. EVENTUALLY. He's not gonna go further south than STX at least, and you can quote me on that.

See S2K Forecast Disclaimer for official information.

[cycloneye]

Just because the GFDL got one right 7 years ago doesn't mean it should be trusted. I certainly don't pay much attention to it. And, unfortunately, the new and improved hurricane model (HWRF) isn't proving to be any better. I'm still thinking Mexico (twice)

You think the second landfall also as a hurricane?

[brunota2003]

And towards the center we go!

000
URNT15 KNHC 041524
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 33 20120804
151530 1536N 07009W 8433 01579 0117 +171 +091 066024 025 014 001 03
151600 1535N 07009W 8426 01589 0117 +170 +091 066024 024 015 002 00
151630 1533N 07008W 8434 01578 0115 +170 +091 072026 027 021 000 00
151700 1532N 07007W 8425 01586 0114 +170 +093 071027 028 023 000 00
151730 1531N 07006W 8429 01582 0113 +170 +094 072027 028 022 000 00
151800 1530N 07005W 8433 01578 0113 +170 +094 070027 028 022 000 00
151830 1529N 07004W 8422 01591 0111 +175 +095 071027 028 023 000 00
151900 1528N 07003W 8432 01577 0109 +175 +095 071026 027 021 000 00
151930 1527N 07001W 8428 01582 0105 +180 +096 071027 029 021 000 00
152000 1526N 07000W 8429 01580 0106 +180 +097 069030 030 021 000 00
152030 1525N 06959W 8429 01579 0107 +180 +098 067029 030 020 000 00
152100 1524N 06958W 8425 01586 0107 +178 +098 067028 029 022 000 00
152130 1523N 06957W 8433 01575 0108 +175 +098 065028 028 021 000 00
152200 1522N 06956W 8431 01577 0113 +166 +098 062027 029 028 004 00
152230 1521N 06954W 8431 01579 0122 +153 +096 067030 031 036 019 03
152300 1519N 06953W 8435 01569 0125 +144 +092 068031 034 039 023 00
152330 1518N 06952W 8424 01584 0113 +166 +088 064028 029 039 017 00
152400 1517N 06951W 8426 01582 0112 +169 +086 061028 029 029 001 00
152430 1516N 06950W 8433 01574 0112 +170 +086 061028 028 025 001 00
152500 1515N 06949W 8425 01585 0106 +175 +088 063027 027 023 001 00
$$
;

[Meteorcane]

Can anyone give an explanation why it seems to be jettisoning its western convection? Also could those western bands help moisten the area ahead of it, or will they have a negative effect by cooling the air?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

What is really going on with this storm? Look at the impressive appearance on satellite imagery and that is how strong it is?! That has to be the weakest storm with that well-organized structure I have ever seen!

It could be still 60mph, still haven't sampled the eastern side, thats where the winds and moist air are. Check back in 2hours and 30mins should be upgraded if this is true.

Thanks....my comment was slightly aggressive because of how stunned I was when I saw that Ernesto was only 50 mph. Sorry if I offended anyone.

Dude, it's cool, I had the same reaction.

[Weatherfreak000]

Just because the GFDL got one right 7 years ago doesn't mean it should be trusted. I certainly don't pay much attention to it. And, unfortunately, the new and improved hurricane model (HWRF) isn't proving to be any better. I'm still thinking Mexico (twice).

A blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while eh Wx47?



You're on then. I'm sticking to my guns, i'll come looking for ya when it's all said and done, you say MX I say NGOM.

No reason to get excited. The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking

Still don't think he's gonna drop to a TD though do ya Wx47?