ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Recon heading to the center...should be VERY interesting.

[SouthDadeFish]

You can now see cirrus outflow in all quadrants. Wind shear is less of an issue today than it was yesterday.

[HouTXmetro]

What a BOLD prediction Weatherfreak! When I go against the NHC I'm wrong, when I go with the NHC i.e. Debby I'm wrong. I just give up. trying to guess where these things are going.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041534
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120804
152530 1514N 06947W 8430 01578 0106 +175 +092 066027 028 023 000 00
152600 1513N 06946W 8428 01578 0105 +177 +094 065027 028 023 000 00
152630 1512N 06945W 8428 01578 0105 +174 +097 069026 026 024 000 00
152700 1511N 06944W 8425 01582 0104 +175 +098 071022 025 024 000 00
152730 1510N 06943W 8434 01570 0106 +170 +098 070024 027 024 001 00
152800 1509N 06942W 8428 01575 0110 +163 +098 062025 027 029 005 00
152830 1507N 06940W 8424 01580 0099 +178 +096 062023 025 020 001 00
152900 1506N 06939W 8436 01566 0098 +180 +095 060023 023 021 000 00
152930 1505N 06938W 8425 01577 0099 +175 +095 057026 026 024 001 00
153000 1504N 06937W 8429 01573 0099 +175 +096 055026 027 024 001 00
153030 1503N 06936W 8426 01576 0098 +175 +097 056026 026 024 000 00
153100 1502N 06935W 8429 01570 0096 +178 +099 056023 025 026 000 00
153130 1501N 06933W 8428 01573 0095 +179 +101 061022 023 024 000 00
153200 1500N 06932W 8429 01569 0100 +169 +101 062019 022 024 002 00
153230 1459N 06931W 8429 01569 0093 +180 +099 058020 021 023 000 00
153300 1457N 06930W 8425 01572 0093 +180 +098 058019 019 024 000 00
153330 1456N 06929W 8429 01568 0094 +178 +098 058019 020 023 000 00
153400 1455N 06927W 8426 01572 0096 +174 +098 055019 020 025 000 00
153430 1454N 06926W 8431 01567 0093 +175 +098 060020 020 025 000 00
153500 1453N 06925W 8428 01565 0093 +174 +099 061020 021 026 001 00
$$
;

[mcheer23]

Yeah... Okay GFS.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

[Dean4Storms]

I said it early on in this thread, the Globals are pretty much trash beyond a few days with Ernesto with them weakening it so much. That affects the track a good deal!

[mcheer23]

I said it early on in this thread, the Globals are pretty much trash beyond a few days with Ernesto with them weakening it so much. That affects the track a good deal!

Oh yeah. Im pretty much going to ignore the GFS now

[brunota2003]

the GFS is like "What system? This is not the system you are looking for! Oh...HI Florence!" Sad it shows Florence (a 40 knot TS) plain as day...but Ernesto is no where to be found.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041544
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 35 20120804
153530 1452N 06924W 8430 01566 0092 +177 +099 061019 020 026 001 00
153600 1451N 06923W 8427 01569 0090 +180 +099 065020 020 026 002 00
153630 1450N 06921W 8430 01563 0089 +178 +099 062020 021 032 001 00
153700 1449N 06920W 8427 01565 0087 +181 +099 050019 021 030 001 00
153730 1447N 06919W 8423 01569 0097 +160 +099 048024 025 032 005 00
153800 1446N 06918W 8435 01557 0102 +152 +097 054023 025 037 011 00
153830 1445N 06917W 8422 01570 0090 +172 +093 046019 025 037 015 00
153900 1444N 06915W 8433 01560 0084 +184 +090 059023 023 025 000 00
153930 1443N 06914W 8424 01569 0084 +183 +091 066023 023 025 000 00
154000 1442N 06913W 8432 01560 0085 +183 +094 070023 024 024 000 00
154030 1441N 06912W 8426 01568 0083 +183 +096 070021 022 024 000 00
154100 1440N 06911W 8429 01565 0080 +188 +099 066021 022 024 000 00
154130 1438N 06910W 8429 01563 0076 +190 +100 063021 022 023 000 00
154200 1437N 06908W 8430 01559 0076 +192 +101 059020 021 024 000 00
154230 1436N 06907W 8428 01561 0075 +190 +101 057019 020 024 000 00
154300 1435N 06906W 8430 01558 0073 +193 +102 056019 020 022 000 00
154330 1434N 06905W 8427 01560 0074 +187 +102 048017 018 023 000 00
154400 1433N 06904W 8432 01553 0073 +188 +101 044018 018 022 000 00
154430 1432N 06902W 8421 01563 0069 +190 +102 043019 019 022 000 00
154500 1431N 06901W 8431 01554 0069 +190 +102 047021 021 023 002 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

brunota,that symbol is the 11 AM position right?

[brunota2003]

Highest flight level winds so far on this inbound leg: 34 knots

Of note: The extrapolated pressure is down to 1006.9 so far, and haven't reached the center yet. It hit 1008.3 on the run where the VDM said 1008...so it seems accurate.

[Nederlander]

What a BOLD prediction Weatherfreak! When I go against the NHC I'm wrong, when I go with the NHC i.e. Debby I'm wrong. I just give up. trying to guess where these things are going.

you don't have to "guess". Use the many tools we have available. Freak is right, sometimes people live by the models way too much. In this case, the GFS has been extremely consistent run to run and that makes me go hmmm... Now that doesn't mean it's initializing correctly, and I think the NHC has hinted at that as well by forecasting to the right of the consensus. So far, the NHC forecast looks pretty good to me. It will still sniff out the weakness but not enough to go poleward imo. I am thinking TX/MX border at this time.. We still have a week or so.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

No way this stays headed for MX IMO if it reaches hurricane status in the western Carib. I can see it if it stays like it is however.

[HouTXmetro]

Does the GFS know something that we don't? Either that or it's on Drugs. How can it miss initializing this system clear as day. Especially with how large the system structure is. I'm confused.

[Meteorcane]

To be fair the initializing data was a 1008 mb system not exactly a powerhouse (although its presentation looks solid at the moment).

[Shuriken]

What is really going on with this storm? Look at the impressive appearance on satellite imagery and that is how strong it is?! That has to be the weakest storm with that well-organized structure I have ever seen!

Actually it's pretty typical for a TS to look this way for awhile -- you won't see massive pressure falls and rapid intensification until an eyewall closes off.

[brunota2003]

Someone tell them that a TomTom doesn't work too well in the middle of the ocean, please!

000
URNT15 KNHC 041554
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120804
154530 1429N 06900W 8428 01554 0069 +190 +101 039018 021 026 002 00
154600 1428N 06859W 8425 01555 0068 +188 +101 022017 018 028 002 00
154630 1427N 06857W 8433 01548 0068 +188 +099 007016 017 028 001 00
154700 1426N 06856W 8428 01552 0066 +190 +098 355015 017 028 000 03
154730 1425N 06855W 8421 01557 0072 +183 +098 330013 014 031 003 00
154800 1424N 06853W 8428 01556 0076 +177 +098 303013 014 031 003 03
154830 1425N 06851W 8430 01550 0071 +183 +098 336010 012 032 003 00
154900 1427N 06850W 8430 01550 0065 +187 +099 015011 011 031 001 00
154930 1427N 06849W 8435 01536 0060 +188 +100 030012 013 029 000 03
155000 1427N 06847W 8420 01550 0056 +184 +101 017012 013 035 003 00
155030 1426N 06845W 8426 01540 0054 +180 +100 340012 013 043 010 00
155100 1426N 06844W 8417 01552 0069 +157 +099 270015 018 045 012 03
155130 1426N 06842W 8419 01544 0063 +160 +096 243026 030 /// /// 03
155200 1427N 06841W 8428 01538 0070 +160 +094 204024 032 049 051 03
155230 1429N 06841W 8451 01520 0074 +163 +093 127021 024 /// /// 03
155300 1430N 06842W 8413 01552 0056 +181 +092 110019 024 /// /// 03
155330 1429N 06844W 8435 01529 0044 +193 +091 062010 016 030 006 03
155400 1427N 06844W 8412 01549 0059 +169 +091 331015 020 030 006 03
155430 1426N 06843W 8435 01525 0066 +152 +091 255026 032 045 023 03
155500 1426N 06843W 8435 01525 0065 +152 +090 238027 033 061 040 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure at recent pass is 1004.4 mbs.

0044

[Extratropical94]

Latest center pass gives the illusion of twin centers, one with 1005 and one with 1004 mbars.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Lowest pressure at recent pass is 1005.4 mbs.

0054

There was a 1004.4 reading as well...

155330 1429N 06844W 8435 01529 0044 +193 +091 062010 016 030 006 03