ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[pcolaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[HouTXmetro]

By no means am I ignoring the GFS. Learned my lesson with Debby

[Blinhart]

I never said it was about to go into RI, so please stop saying I did. I just stated that you never know when a system will undergo RI, so that is all I said.

[SouthDadeFish]

1005 millibars is the final call after they decided to do a loopy loop

With 40mph winds at the surface... Pressure is probably lower.

[brunota2003]

Well...still nothing from Recon showing that winds are any higher than 45 knots currently. The pressure did drop, convection is plenty deep, and it appears the center is tighter than it was earlier...so we will see what Ernesto decides to do.

[brunota2003]

1005 millibars is the final call after they decided to do a loopy loop

With 40mph winds at the surface... Pressure is probably lower.

Fair enough...I didn't even see the dropsonde. They put 1005 on the VDM though, so I don't know what they think it is.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041634
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 40 20120804
162530 1420N 06750W 8429 01581 0120 +160 +081 167043 043 039 000 00
162600 1422N 06749W 8426 01584 0118 +164 +081 167043 044 039 000 00
162630 1424N 06749W 8428 01582 0117 +165 +082 165045 045 039 001 03
162700 1426N 06748W 8426 01583 0114 +166 +083 163045 046 039 001 00
162730 1428N 06748W 8434 01574 0115 +166 +084 164044 044 039 001 00
162800 1430N 06748W 8425 01585 0115 +165 +085 166045 045 039 002 00
162830 1432N 06747W 8430 01581 0117 +165 +085 168044 045 038 001 00
162900 1433N 06747W 8431 01579 0118 +165 +085 165045 045 037 000 00
162930 1435N 06746W 8421 01594 0118 +165 +086 163044 046 037 000 00
163000 1437N 06746W 8429 01584 0122 +165 +086 161043 043 036 000 00
163030 1439N 06745W 8435 01582 0123 +165 +086 161041 043 035 000 00
163100 1441N 06745W 8422 01592 0122 +165 +086 160042 043 035 000 00
163130 1443N 06745W 8434 01580 0120 +168 +087 160043 044 036 000 00
163200 1445N 06744W 8424 01591 0120 +170 +087 160043 044 037 000 00
163230 1447N 06744W 8426 01588 0122 +167 +087 157043 043 036 000 00
163300 1449N 06743W 8433 01585 0125 +165 +086 155043 043 037 000 00
163330 1451N 06743W 8421 01595 0125 +162 +086 156045 046 035 001 00
163400 1453N 06743W 8432 01583 0127 +160 +085 154047 047 036 000 00
163430 1455N 06742W 8428 01587 0128 +159 +084 154046 047 036 000 00
163500 1456N 06742W 8428 01592 0129 +160 +083 155046 047 035 000 00
$$
;

[Stephanie]

Let's keep the tone civil. If you disagree with a person's post just state it and move on. Challenges, wagers, are not necessary and are hostile.

[TheBurn]

15:45 UTC IR
Starting to show that 'classic' look...

[Texashawk]

15:45 UTC IR
Starting to show that 'classic' look...

Looks-wise, at least, this is one of the most impressive weak TS's I've ever seen, which makes the intensity all the more baffling.

[Shuriken]

I'm not much of a fan of computer finger-painting, but here's the last day's microwave:



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

[cycloneye]

This is what awaits for Ernesto. The TCHP is very high in NW Caribbean.

[beoumont]

The past few hours are a good object lesson in the difficulties of forecasting storm strength; especially in the very short term. Just as quickly as the convection collapsed and the pressure rose to 1008 mb; the convection has burst again over the center and plane measured 1005 mb. and SFMR surface wind gusts of hurricane force (probably rain contaminated, though.).

Why did it weaken? Maybe it passed over a large school of hammerhead sharks?

Measuring the last 4 hours of motion, I get 14 kts.

[cycloneye]

The past few hours are a good object lesson in the difficulties of forecasting storm strength; especially in the very short term. Just as quickly as the convection collapsed and the pressure rose to 1008 mb; the convection has burst again over the center and plane measured 1005 mb. and SFMR surface wind gusts of hurricane force (probably rain contaminated, though.).

Why did it weaken? Maybe it passed over a large school of hammerhead sharks?

Mid level dry air was the culprit.

[Blinhart]

I think when Ernie can get a little further away from South America, there is an excellent chance of seeing him ramp up in strength.

If you look at the NHC's wind probability they even give it a 8% chance of being a Cat 3 or higher Hurricane by Tuesday morning and a 22% chance of being a Cat 2 or higher..

[Ntxw]

Question for anyone who knows. Could Ernesto's size contribute to it's survival against various factors against it? I've noticed compared to recent Carib systems it is rather large. Perhaps that is why models keep trying to disintegrate it, they think it's a small feature.

[HouTXmetro]

Stair stepping, I think we are like to see more NW then W jogs. I do noticed that the latest fix is already North of subsequent position forecast.

[cheezyWXguy]

You should never be so confident about RI, you never know about RI, that is why everyone likes to speculate when it might happen.

Im pretty confident. If you'd like to wager that this will be at 974 mb by midnight tonight I'll glad you take you up on it.

Besides your wager, what factors make you so confident about this? Ernesto doesn't even have an impressive circulation right now according to recon data. Almost all the winds in the SE quadrant were out of the S instead of SW. Also the winds on the SW side are very weak. Yes satellite presentation is impressive, but that is not everything. Recon did report anything about Ernesto forming an eyewall yet, and that would probably have to happen first before he can hit 974mb. Building an eyewall takes time.

You pretty much proved my point as I was saying that such a jump was very unlikely at this point.
And Shuriken, a jump to 978 from 1008 would be a jump from weak TS to a category 2 hurricane in 12 hours...2 advisories. So it's probably not likely.
Edit- and that being said its appearance is rather impressive. a jump like that could take place further down the road if it can get its act together, especially over the explosive heat potential of the western carib. but in the meantime, say, within the next 24-36 hours or so, i just dont see it.

[BigB0882]

I remember the GFS being the outlier with Debby but I also remember a lot of people thinking it made sense. This is the opposite. It is in line with a great majority of other models but a lot of people think it doesn't make sense. Does that run of the GFS you posted have it opening up into a wave again within the next day or so? I just do not see that happening and I can't imagine that effects the run, even if just a little.

[CrazyC83]

Computer models don't see satellite presentations.