ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Getting larger in size and getting that look.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041648
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 41 20120804
163530 1458N 06741W 8433 01582 0127 +162 +083 153045 046 035 000 00
163600 1500N 06741W 8426 01593 0127 +165 +083 151047 047 036 001 00
163630 1502N 06740W 8429 01591 0128 +162 +084 149045 046 037 000 00
163700 1504N 06740W 8429 01592 0130 +161 +084 148045 046 037 001 00
163730 1506N 06740W 8424 01598 0129 +162 +084 149045 045 036 000 00
163800 1508N 06739W 8433 01586 0132 +160 +084 150045 046 036 000 00
163830 1510N 06739W 8425 01593 0132 +159 +085 148045 046 037 000 00
163900 1511N 06738W 8432 01589 0134 +156 +085 148045 046 037 000 00
163930 1513N 06738W 8424 01596 0134 +155 +085 147044 045 036 001 00
164000 1515N 06738W 8429 01592 0136 +154 +085 147044 044 036 001 00
164030 1517N 06737W 8432 01589 0138 +150 +085 147045 046 036 000 00
164100 1519N 06737W 8424 01597 0137 +152 +085 146045 046 038 000 03
164130 1521N 06736W 8429 01594 0139 +150 +085 146045 046 039 001 00
164200 1523N 06736W 8430 01592 0140 +150 +084 144042 044 039 002 00
164230 1524N 06736W 8425 01599 0143 +145 +084 142044 045 039 002 00
164300 1526N 06735W 8432 01591 0144 +145 +083 140045 045 038 001 00
164330 1528N 06735W 8428 01595 0140 +150 +082 143045 046 037 002 00
164400 1530N 06734W 8426 01599 0139 +152 +081 145046 046 036 002 00
164430 1532N 06734W 8430 01594 0141 +151 +080 143044 045 037 001 00
164500 1534N 06734W 8424 01601 0143 +150 +081 144043 043 037 002 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

I think the "jump" we saw is more of a center relocation, than anything else. The center was pretty broad on previous passes and it has tightened some on the last pass, more in line with the deepest convection. The pressure also dropped a bit, so I would personally expect that the winds will catch up a little later today.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

When were both the GFS and ECMWF both wrong? It's very difficult to go against the grain with those two reliable models. To me this is looking more and more like a BOC/Mexico threat and less a Gulf Coast United States threat

[Shuriken]

Why did it weaken? Maybe it passed over a large school of hammerhead sharks?

A quick-moving system still looking wavish (as Ernesto did on Friday) tends to have a generally sloppy windfield structure with usually multiple whirls at the surface; until these consolidate under a convective core/700mb center, the storm will appear anomalously weak for a time after that convective core develops but before surface consolidation occurs.

[brunota2003]

Homeward bound?

000
URNT15 KNHC 041654
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 42 20120804
164530 1535N 06733W 8429 01595 0146 +142 +081 145043 044 037 004 00
164600 1537N 06733W 8431 01594 0142 +150 +080 143043 044 036 004 00
164630 1539N 06732W 8421 01605 0143 +149 +079 140043 044 035 004 00
164700 1541N 06732W 8425 01597 0142 +152 +077 138043 044 034 003 00
164730 1543N 06732W 8428 01596 0142 +153 +077 139044 045 033 001 00
164800 1544N 06731W 8422 01601 0143 +152 +078 141042 043 032 000 00
164830 1546N 06731W 8433 01594 0142 +155 +080 138042 043 033 001 00
164900 1548N 06730W 8424 01600 0141 +155 +082 138042 042 033 000 00
164930 1550N 06730W 8432 01598 0141 +159 +083 137044 044 033 000 00
165000 1552N 06729W 8421 01606 0144 +153 +084 138043 044 032 000 00
165030 1553N 06729W 8428 01600 0143 +153 +084 138045 045 033 000 00
165100 1555N 06728W 8433 01595 0143 +154 +084 139046 047 034 002 00
165130 1557N 06727W 8421 01607 0145 +152 +083 137044 045 035 002 00
165200 1558N 06727W 8433 01595 0149 +146 +081 142045 045 036 005 00
165230 1600N 06726W 8429 01599 0154 +140 +079 144044 044 041 009 03
165300 1601N 06725W 8430 01595 0163 +120 +077 150046 047 048 027 00
165330 1602N 06724W 8425 01601 0164 +121 +073 147046 046 050 021 00
165400 1603N 06722W 8432 01596 0165 +123 +070 143045 046 043 013 00
165430 1604N 06721W 8432 01597 0154 +142 +069 137047 048 040 004 00
165500 1605N 06720W 8430 01598 0152 +147 +070 131046 049 040 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Next mission departs at 6:00 PM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/2200Z
D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I'd say the Nhc will wait till 5 to upgrade. But what do you guys think 2pm may hold?

[SFLcane]

If this storm does indeed RI as some models suggest i.e; ships and lgem models i cant see how it wont get scooped up.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

Thru 72hrs 12zGFS Ensemble Means is almost identical to the operational GFS in regards to track.

[RL3AO]

I'd say the Nhc will wait till 5 to upgrade. But what do you guys think 2pm may hold?

Upgrade to what?

[Portastorm]

This is my last friendly reminder about this before I start deleting posts ... if you're going to make a prediction on Ernesto or a forecast about what you think the storm is going to do, use the Storm 2K dislcaimer or reference it on your post. When in doubt, just include the dislaimer and that way you're covered. You will see other members who have done this well. Thank you.

[brunota2003]

I'd say the Nhc will wait till 5 to upgrade. But what do you guys think 2pm may hold?

Upgrade to what? Definitely not hurricane...recon never found anything to support winds higher than 45 knots...so the current intensity of 45 knots looks good still.

[beoumont]

The past few hours are a good object lesson in the difficulties of forecasting storm strength; especially in the very short term. Just as quickly as the convection collapsed and the pressure rose to 1008 mb; the convection has burst again over the center and plane measured 1005 mb. and SFMR surface wind gusts of hurricane force (probably rain contaminated, though.).

Why did it weaken? Maybe it passed over a large school of hammerhead sharks?

Mid level dry air was the culprit.

That was my impression as I watched the sequence from above (satellite's view); and a lay person's easy explanation to pull from the small bag of "obvious" reasons. BUT, why there would be an entrainment of dry air in the middle of the Caribbean that only lasted a few hours, with no apparent upper or mid-level low in the vicinity and the closest land over 300 miles away raises question-marks on that "explanation." As Lixon (Avila) noted in the NHC 11 am discussion, " I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER."

IE - one can rarely be so CERTAIN; as the expert (NHC multi-decade forecastor Lixion Avila) noted the only answer sometimes is: there is no answer.

Just as well could have been a pack of large whales below that released a burst of dry air simultaneously out of their blowholes --- and when that patch of dry air reached 18,432 ft. it got pulled into the circulation?? And that would explain the "dry air."

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I'd say the Nhc will wait till 5 to upgrade. But what do you guys think 2pm may hold?

Upgrade to what?

Sorry, increase wind speeds if this storm continues intensifying.

[Blinhart]

I know I don't have a lot of posts on here, but I think everyone needs to do like me and just put the disclaimer as their signature, the only ones that shouldn't have to are the pro mets, however even if people don't do it, there should be more people in here to make sure that all post that need a disclaimer have a disclaimer, especially when there is influx of people due to an active system.

[Hurricaneman]

I'd say the Nhc will wait till 5 to upgrade. But what do you guys think 2pm may hold?

Upgrade to what?

No upgrade, but they probably drop the pressure to 1005

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I'd say the Nhc will wait till 5 to upgrade. But what do you guys think 2pm may hold?

Upgrade to what? Definitely not hurricane...recon never found anything to support winds higher than 45 knots...so the current intensity of 45 knots looks good still.

Bad wording

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I have noticed over the course of the day so far is that Ernesto's friction with South America seems to be lessening. The structure of the storm looks to me as if its changing more to favor bringing moisture in from the east, as opposed to the south as it had been doing this morning. This would favor bringing in much more moisture from the caribbean as opposed to the dry air from the land.

[Air Force Met]

By no means am I ignoring the GFS. Learned my lesson with Debby

Certainly not referring to you my friend...was being generic.