ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

So it's confirmed we'll see 50kts at 5?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hot tower firing?

Could I have a link to that?

[cycloneye]

Another burst starting.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

While we are here, I'll just throw my 2cents in the bucket and say a more northerly track at 5.

[mcheer23]

Another burst starting.

]

Could this be the one...?

[KWT]

Yep decent burst going up close to the center. Looks like it currently has a motion around 275 but its hard to tell at the moment.

[mcheer23]

New advisory out...NHC went with 60mph.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

...ERNESTO RACING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 70.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT45 KNHC 042031
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOUND A WEAKER
CYCLONE...BUT DURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER AROUND
NOON...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO
1004 MB FROM 1008 MB...AND FOUND A BETTER DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL
ESTABLISHED WHICH IS NOT COMMON FOR A CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 3.0 AT 1800 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.3 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THE PAST HOUR.
ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS.

AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS TO
FORECAST WEAKENING AS SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT...
INCLUDING THE HWRF AND THE GFDL. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ERNESTO WILL MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SUGGESTED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...RESULTING
IN ERNESTO TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOLUTION OF MOST THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGING ERNESTO OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS
TIME...THE NHC FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED BY
THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.2N 72.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 16.5N 81.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 19.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HurricaneAndrew92]

New advisory out...NHC went with 60mph.

Hopefully recon supports this.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 70.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[SouthDadeFish]

Hot tower firing?

Could I have a link to that?

From this website:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

Lots more hurricane links here:

http://www.canefever.com/#!links/c2414

[Javlin]

The dry air that is present further west probably will be enough to keep Ernesto in check for a little while anyway, but I think given heat content only increases from here on, I think eventually it'll win that battle.

I also think its not perfectly stacked at the moment, I personally think the center is a touch NW of the main convective mass, but thats just subjective really!

I do not know about that KWT?JB tweeted last night if my time frame is right it might die here for awhile and a few here were thinking the same but he sure has "kicked it up a notch" today.He seems to have his own envelope like he is a big boy making his own enviroment.

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Here are the final datas from Meteo-France Guadeloupe after Ernesto's "trip" in the Lesser Antilles and especially Guadeloupe... who were not directly concerned but feels the indirect effects of this TS. Back to green meaning no threat .

WEATHER. Back to green

franceantilles.fr 04.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180730.php

A pocket of fog quickly dries the air. A small risk of stormy downpour is always conceivable, in the early afternoon. The night looks serene.
The center of tropical storm "Ernesto" is located in 11 local: about 750 km South-West of our coasts. "Ernesto" continues in the direction of the West and away from our archipelago. A pocket of fog quickly dries the air. A small risk of stormy downpour is always conceivable, in the early afternoon. The night looks serene.
The sea, on the ocean front continues to depreciate. She became agitated with medium-sized waves of 1 m 60 and a swell of is. The sector East-South-East-easterly trade wind is moderate. Accumulations of rain on the episode reached an average of 50 to 80 mm, and very locally 80 to 120 mm. Gusts to 85 km/h were frequently recorded under rainy stormy episodes.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Sorry mods, my bad. What time will we get first info from recon?

[Hurricane Andrew]

I can also help with recon if needed.

[cycloneye]

An excerpt from discussion.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOLUTION OF MOST THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGING ERNESTO OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS
TIME...THE NHC FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED BY
THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.

[mcheer23]

T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 3.0 AT 1800 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.3 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THE PAST HOUR.
ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS.


hm..

[Weatherfreak000]

An excerpt from discussion.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOLUTION OF MOST THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGING ERNESTO OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS
TIME...THE NHC FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED BY
THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.

Note their warning "At this time", NHC IMO gives the solution some notice. The track itself if a compromise between the two paths, all the NHC has to do is make shifts to the left or right to verify how it'll turn out.

IMO, Ernesto is taking off. This probably is it.

[Gustywind]

Ernesto looks healthy, nice sat presentation... what a change in 24H Right now, let's hope that Jamaica won't deal with the assaults of this huge baby.