Special 12 forecast/updates

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:09 pm

This is a storm already in all liklihood

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic12fd.html

Also, there are updates available on the home page, as usual. A sample of these, which I seldom post on boards http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic12.html

JCT777 · #2 Postby **JCT777** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:13 pm

Thanks for the info, Derek. I am surprised that it has not been named Henri as of 5 PM.

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:13 pm

Derek, are you heavily basing the intensity forecast based on the CMC and UKie? I'm not so sure about the scenarios being portrayed those two at this time ... the GFDL keeps (granted an old run 12z) #12 inland and there is a wide spread between the models ...

Some even hint as extratropical transitional, and looking at the 12z CMC 925 vorticity, it transfers the best energy offshore into the ATL from the Eastern GOM.

FWIW, I do agree #12 has achieved storm status.

SF

Derek Ortt · #4 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 5:36 pm

Cangialosi was basing the intensification based upon UKMET and CMC. Remember, Gabirelle was expected to weaken in the Atl and it ended up becoming a cane

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 5:53 pm

A lot is up in the air right now...I'm not sure about the extratropical transition phase because there's not a lot of baroclinic effects progged by some models, while several others do ...

A lot of uncertainity regarding tracks and intensity as the models are divergent on solutions. The only thing I can honestly say it that #12 will be a slow mover in the short term with the models having this much difficulty in regards to the digging trough and the building ridge left in the wake of the trough and Fabian's exit...

SF

hurricanedude · #6 Postby **hurricanedude** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 5:56 pm

IN A NUT SHELL ANYONE ON THE EC FROM JERSEY SOUTH SHOULD BE ALERT...... CORRECT?

Colin · #7 Postby **Colin** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 6:06 pm

IMO, that's incorrect Mike...this should only affect the Carolinas South...and especially the coastline at that.

hurricanedude · #8 Postby **hurricanedude** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 6:15 pm

you might be right colin, but your going on the 5 day models, as you know five days out the margin of error is HUGE!!

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 7:15 pm

This is too early to tell what is going to happen.

What is not too early to tell is that fact that Bermuda by this time tomorrow likely will be the newest parking lot

Special 12 forecast/updates

Special 12 forecast/updates

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