Caribbean - Central America Weather

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Gustywind
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Re: Re:

#12321 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hi my friends. Looks like Ernesto has not bring significant damages in the Lesser Antilles especially the Windwards islands, that's very good news :)... even if in Martinica i heard that a man was died electocute :(. Condoleance to the family.
Staying in Martinica (who backoff the yellow alert, back to green code :) ), here is a recap of Ernesto ( see below :darrow: ): http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf (french version :) ).

Actual synopsis
:
Today the sky is still crowded at sunrise of the day with a few showers.The wind remains sensitive gusting to 70 km/h in the heights. At low altitude, he has returned to moderate.
At sea, the situation has normalized, average waves are lower than 2 meters in the Atlantic. A little chop agitated the Caribbean coast.

Forecast: improvement built quickly. The sky remains veiled but the rain will cease.

Balance sheet/Encrypted datas: The passage of Ernesto on the Martinque brang rainfall of 30 to 50 mm. These are modest values for a tropical storm. So it did not had reactionwater.The winds were more dangerous, with winds gusting to 80 km/h in plain, locally more than 110 km/h in the mountains and on the Atlantic coast. At sea measured average lows reached 3 m and the hollow maxi 5 m.

Comments/Consequences: Ernesto crossed Martinica with moderate effects.


Very good news from that island. Let's hope that Jamaica doesn't have big problems as Ernesto tracks near that island.

Yeah, you're right. Thanks for your post. Keeping your fingers crossed for Jamaica too :).
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Re: Caribbean -Central America Weather

#12322 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2012 2:34 pm

Drier weather will start on Sunday in PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST SAT AUG 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT 2 PM AST...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST AND WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST AT NEAR 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A TUTT WILL RETROGRESS TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO C0NTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ERNESTO ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO BUT SPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OVERALL DRYING CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AND A GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED RETROGRESSING TUTT AND A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...MAY
EVENTUALLY INTERACT TO PRODUCE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED SPELL OF
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT TJMZ...AND TJPS...PRODUCING SQUALLY CONDITIONS WITH
ROUNDS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS.

.MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATER SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. FOR SPECIFIC MARINE CONDITIONS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR LOCAL
MARINE PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 91 80 90 / 20 20 20 20
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#12323 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:38 pm

Here are the final datas from Meteo-France Guadeloupe after Ernesto's "trip" in the Lesser Antilles and especially Guadeloupe... who were not directly concerned but feels the indirect effects of this TS.

WEATHER. Back to green

franceantilles.fr 04.08.2012
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180730.php

A pocket of fog quickly dries the air. A small risk of stormy downpour is always conceivable, in the early afternoon. The night looks serene.
The center of tropical storm "Ernesto" is located in 11 local: about 750 km South-West of our coasts. "Ernesto" continues in the direction of the West and away from our archipelago. A pocket of fog quickly dries the air. A small risk of stormy downpour is always conceivable, in the early afternoon. The night looks serene.
The sea, on the ocean front continues to depreciate. She became agitated with medium-sized waves of 1 m 60 and a swell of is. The sector East-South-East-easterly trade wind is moderate. Accumulations of rain on the episode reached an average of 50 to 80 mm, and very locally 80 to 120 mm. Gusts to 85 km/h were frequently recorded under rainy stormy episodes.
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#12324 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:26 pm

Here is a complete and full summary of Ernesto (who has spared Martinica :!). In terms of rainfall, Guadeloupe received much more water due to some outers bands reaching the butterfly island, while Martinica experienced strong winds and gustywinds. Very minors damages have occured and that's the good news. Will the storms continue to spared us in the Lesser Antilles? :all the season? is another story :oops: :roll: . Let's wait and see enjoying each day with joy, happiness and... :sun: my carib friends :D

Regards

Gustywind

WEATHER

Ernesto spared Martinique


C.R.-V. France-Antilles Martinique 04.08.2012

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 168618.php

The storm tropical Ernesto, who had pushed Weather France Martinica in orange vigilance, went more South than expected. Result: threat lifted, only light injuries and very little damage.
The forecast announced 100 to 150 mm of precipitation in some places. Yesterday afternoon, accumulations of rain remained low: between 10 and 30 mm, locally 40 mm on the terrain of the North. The wind would blow up to 150 km/h. The average was around 70 kph yesterday afternoon, with gusts to 110 km/h on the mornes of the northern side of the island. The sea would be very rough, reaching major heights.
Maximum hollow reached 5 meters in Atlantic and channels, not more than one metre of the side Caribbean.All these data have enabled weather France to lift the orange vigilance from 16 pm yesterday afternoon, leaving her in yellow because of the heavy rains which were expected last night. In the aftermath, the prefecture lifted its orange alert, also repositioning the cursor to yellow, "stay alert", because the same rainfall. This morning, Ernesto must be that a (bad) memory for the island. Fortunately for us, its trajectory has changed, more to the South, and has moved away in the Caribbean Sea. Weather France had planned it back but the winds were not strong enough to ensure that these forecasts are realized. Today, weather will improve throughout the day. Will as often after a hurricane, the sun will shine in the afternoon, after very limited showers in early morning rain. Prefecture nevertheless asked to remain vigilant, as long as the phenomenon is not finally ended.


DEPRECATED SWIMMING[/b]

These weather conditions did not bring major damage. The most important is a lightweight wounded at le Lorrain, electrified after attempting to manipulate electrical wires hidden under a tree fell on the pavement. In total, the prefecture has identified 20 interventions, whose many falls of trees, especially in the morning and essentially due to the wind. It is the Atlantic part of the island who has been the most concerned.

Finally, it is noted that the regional health agency (ARS) discourages swimming at sea and in the rivers, to the return to usual transparency of water whose quality could be affected by Ernesto.


-A thousand of persons deprived of electricity

Yesterday trees falls have achieved several electrical cables. Consequence: a thousand of customers private power, the vast majority (approximately 800) to the François and le Lorrain, the rest to le Morne-Vert. Should the current return early evening to the François and le Lorrain, it seemed a little longer for the people in le Morne-Vert, because the cable repair is located in a ravine. To cut dragged despite many officers mobilized, generators were planned.

Finally, the direction of EDF, and the prefecture, said that it is forbidden to approach and touch electrical cables to the ground. The only thing to do is to call EDF.

-Express of the Islands: the rotation resumed this morning

Ticketing on the Express of the Islands was not stormed yesterday, it is rather by phone that the cancellations were managed with passengers

It was not the crowd yesterday morning at the pier on the Express of the Islands. And for cause, the tropical storm would render impossible the departure for Saint Lucia. This is what happened, and for all sailings planned yesterday. Among the people who had moved, in the hope to go still, some expressed their discontent, more by desperation.

In these cases, the Express of the Islands is to allow passengers wishing a place for a later departure, subject to availability. Those who want to be refunded may, but with a penalty because the cancellation is not the responsibility of the company. Yesterday late in the day, customer service addressed to put its passengers remained in dock.

If the weather does not deteriorated last night, which was expected, rotations go well resume this morning, with additional hours.

To take knowledge, visit internet company (http://www.express-des-iles.com), updated in real time.
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#12325 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:26 am

Just a quick stop to check in. My internet has been patchy for about month now and also had heavy work load so not been keeping eye on weather as I should. However, I am watching Ernesto and so is Belize on a whole, NEMO has been activated and will continue assessing the storm over the next few days, ready to activate shelters should they be needed. Honestly dont like this latest shift to SW as it brings him closer to Belize.
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#12326 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:49 am

Lightning and thunder woke me from my slumber :roll: I'm glad Ernesto isn't looking to great right now. The rain and lightning and thunder I can deal with but nothing more so keep weak my friend and quickly pass on by
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#12327 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:05 am

Tropical Activity
Image
Image
Image
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Re: ERNESTO - Preps/Obs Thread for Lesser Antilles, W Caribbean

#12328 Postby greenkat » Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:26 am

Caribwxgirl wrote:Lightning and thunder woke me from my slumber :roll: I'm glad Ernesto isn't looking to great right now. The rain and lightning and thunder I can deal with but nothing more so keep weak my friend and quickly pass on by

Let's hope Ernesto stays weak and small! Stay safe everyone! :)
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#12329 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:45 am

Hi my carib :) as we're approaching closely the peak of the hurricane season let's follow all the features coming on our east. TS Florence is far away from land and should not pose a threat even if we never knows. We must continue to see how Florence evolves during the next couple of days as the others twaves exiting the African coast.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051439
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

...FLORENCE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 35.6W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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#12330 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:47 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 76.0W AT 05/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 187 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 417 NM E OF
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER MOVING W AT
19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 71W-75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER
OF THE STORM ACROSS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 34.2W AT 05/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 590 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N52W TO 15N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS
BETWEEN 42W-58W. HOWEVER...EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...A MAXIMUM OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 46W-53W. ALSO 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES A VERY
WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALONG 50W. MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
HOWEVER ARE WEST OF THE WAVE AND LIKELY INFLUENCING TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO INSTEAD.
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#12331 Postby artist » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:04 pm

as greenkat said, stay safe all.
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#12332 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:04 pm

We keep the faith for all who are on Ernesto's possible path. Prayers and positive thoughts are with you my carib friends.
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#12333 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:05 pm

Thanks to you Artist and Greenkat :D :), we appreciate sincerely :wink:
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Re: Caribbean -Central America Weather

#12334 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:03 pm

Good afternoon. I was without internet for almost 10 hours on Sunday :roll: but here I am as it came back. :) Gusty is right as we are now starting the Cape Verde Season and we have to watch all that goes on to our east.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS......TS ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND ENTER TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES
AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. RAIN FREE HIGH CLOUDINESS...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. A GENERAL DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH EMBEDDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IN FACT...SATELLITE
DERIVED TPW ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM THE
EAST. IN THIS PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS PWAT WILL REMAIN BELOW 1.5 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ONLY A FEW LIGHT MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY LIMITED
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A TUTT LOW RELOCATES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CIG OTHW VFR. LLVL WINDS
E 15-20 KT GRDL TURN NE 5-10 KT BY LATE MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 90 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
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#12335 Postby greenkat » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:22 pm

good, Ernesto's shearing himself and going too fast to pack on any more T-storms. Mexico/Belize is probably just going to have to deal with 55-60 mph winds and spotty thunderstorms.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12336 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:53 pm



BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

...FLORENCE WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 36.7W
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12337 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:56 pm

BZSTORM, be on alert there as Ernesto will make landfall somewhere in the Yucatan.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 78.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
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Re: Caribbean -Central America Weather

#12338 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:Good afternoon. I was without internet for almost 10 hours on Sunday :roll: but here I am as it came back. :) Gusty is right as we are now starting the Cape Verde Season and we have to watch all that goes on to our east.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS......TS ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND ENTER TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES
AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. RAIN FREE HIGH CLOUDINESS...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. A GENERAL DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH EMBEDDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IN FACT...SATELLITE
DERIVED TPW ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM THE
EAST. IN THIS PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS PWAT WILL REMAIN BELOW 1.5 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ONLY A FEW LIGHT MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY LIMITED
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A TUTT LOW RELOCATES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CIG OTHW VFR. LLVL WINDS
E 15-20 KT GRDL TURN NE 5-10 KT BY LATE MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 90 80 89 / 20 20 20 20

Glad to see you back Cycloneye :). I was happy to provide the interim :wink:. Yeah we should continue to follow carefully the Atlantic.
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Gustywind
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Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#12339 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:10 pm

000
WTNT35 KNHC 052354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 79.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND
CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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BZSTORM
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Location: Placencia, Belize

#12340 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:01 pm

watching Luis, like you intenet been disrupted here this last week and today of all days its dropping in & out heard there was freak lightening storm in punta Gorda in Toledo to the south which has distrupted telecommunications and internet so hope tomorrow they get it fixed -been trying to watch the recon live on tropicalatlantic.com a major pain when the streaming is dropping out all the time. But yes watching closely because although diff time of season anf this is a due west track, this later part of track has overtones of TS Richard that impacted Belize last year with the near pass or overland pass by Honduras back into the Belize waters and the waters are hot and shallow swamps/lagoons near coast hotter. Kinda depressed that Ernesto looks to be getting better organized had hoped he'd flail around and come in as a weak system. And what really sucks is weds landfall is my b'day, not supposed to remember b'days by hurricanes just my wedding anniversary as October seems to be the norm for most storms to visit Belize :P
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