ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042233
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 04 20120804
222500 1723N 06605W 4654 06458 0359 -094 -125 073028 029 029 002 00
222530 1722N 06607W 4656 06455 0359 -094 -121 071030 030 023 003 00
222600 1721N 06610W 4656 06455 0358 -091 -120 061028 030 033 007 00
222630 1719N 06612W 4658 06447 0357 -093 -113 055025 028 037 005 00
222700 1717N 06614W 4655 06455 0357 -095 -097 066025 028 038 005 00
222730 1716N 06616W 4657 06451 0355 -090 -090 078025 028 039 006 01
222800 1714N 06618W 4668 06427 0351 -080 -080 081035 039 040 008 01
222830 1713N 06620W 4661 06436 0351 -080 -080 106031 039 038 008 01
222900 1711N 06622W 4646 06459 0348 -092 -092 107034 038 035 005 00
222930 1710N 06624W 4655 06445 0348 -080 -080 110029 034 032 005 01
223000 1708N 06626W 4655 06442 0347 -090 -090 096023 024 033 004 01
223030 1707N 06628W 4655 06442 0346 -092 -099 081022 025 029 005 00
223100 1705N 06630W 4655 06442 0346 -080 -080 081025 027 027 005 05
223130 1705N 06633W 4654 06445 0347 -080 -080 100031 033 028 005 01
223200 1704N 06635W 4658 06441 0347 -080 -080 096028 031 031 005 01
223230 1703N 06637W 4653 06448 0347 -080 -080 089029 031 031 007 01
223300 1702N 06640W 4656 06441 0347 -070 -070 088028 031 033 008 01
223330 1702N 06642W 4655 06442 0345 -070 -070 085030 031 037 009 01
223400 1701N 06645W 4658 06436 0345 -070 -070 097033 035 041 009 01
223430 1700N 06647W 4653 06448 0346 -085 //// 099038 040 041 011 01
$$
;

[KWT]

Indeed Rgv20, it'd probably be a fairly slow motion to the NW if indeed Ernesto does move into the weakness. That being said I think the globals may not be doing that good of a job with Ernesto's strength, even if the system isn't as strong as some people think it is right at this moment.

[littlevince]

ECMWF 12z has Ernesto with a path further south, interacting too much with Honduras, crossing Belize / north Guatemala and ending in the Bay of Campeche or even almost inland. Weaker system, but still a significant rain producer. I guess tomorrow day is crucial to realize what intensification Ernsesto will have or not, and the impact on projected path.

[tolakram]

I'm not sure how the models work, but we know the other day Ernesto's LLC was extremely small, and models have resolution issues, so perhaps this is some kind of continuing resolution issue. You would think the model operator could correct for this, but again, no clue how the input really works.

We will know soon if the models are to be believed or not.

[KWT]

Seems to be lacking inflow to me compared with the ci outflow.
Obs showing straight east winds on all the ABC islands despite the center a few 100 miles away.

As others have been saying, the lower levels of this system may not be as well organised as the convective bursts would have us believe.

[brunota2003]

If Ernesto was traveling any faster, I don't think he'd exist. I think the easterly's are really getting to him and giving him heck, at least as far as his circulation is going. Which in turn affects his convection and everything else.

[Portastorm]

the problem I have with that map is look at the weakness in the ridge....I mean you could drive a few million buses through that thing. YOU are going to tell me a TC will not respond to that?

The way I see it is that the GFS and ECMWF have very weak steering in the GOM (Trough does not dig deep enough to fully pick up Ernesto), if that were to verify Ernesto should respond by drastically slowing down in forward speed and turn to the NW. By next weekend the Texas Ridge is able to bend Ernesto back to the WNW.

But Rgv20, have you looked closely at the 500mb level heights as progged by the globals for later this coming week? The high isn't really centered over Texas but over the Four Corners region. If your scenario were to happen, I'm wouldn't be so certain about a bend back to the W-NW.

[KWT]

Also tobe fair its pretty uncommon that both the GFS and the ECM forecast a weakening of sorts and it doesn't come off. I'll be most interested to look at what recon finds and where exactly the LLC is in relation to the CDO.

[christchurchguy]

perhaps the LLC is simply not as big as it looks. I was just a little swil yesterday on the radar as it moved through barbados and st. lucia, But internal structure obscured under that hot tower without radar or visible eye...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042244
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 05 20120804
223500 1659N 06650W 4657 06442 0347 -082 //// 103035 041 041 008 01
223530 1659N 06652W 4655 06442 0345 -079 //// 103035 037 036 009 01
223600 1658N 06654W 4655 06445 0346 -080 //// 101033 037 036 009 01
223630 1657N 06657W 4650 06450 0346 -084 //// 092034 037 037 008 01
223700 1656N 06659W 4655 06444 0347 -070 -070 100033 035 036 007 01
223730 1655N 06702W 4656 06441 0346 -070 -070 111039 041 038 006 01
223800 1655N 06705W 4654 06446 0348 -070 -070 106036 040 038 006 01
223830 1654N 06707W 4654 06445 0347 -070 -070 094034 036 034 007 01
223900 1653N 06710W 4656 06442 0347 -070 -070 096033 035 033 005 01
223930 1652N 06712W 4656 06442 0346 -080 -080 098032 032 032 005 01
224000 1652N 06715W 4656 06442 0346 -070 -070 096034 035 033 006 01
224030 1651N 06717W 4656 06442 0347 -080 -080 101033 034 034 005 01
224100 1650N 06720W 4656 06441 0346 -080 -080 095029 032 034 004 01
224130 1649N 06722W 4655 06444 0347 -082 -084 087030 031 031 004 00
224200 1648N 06725W 4656 06444 0347 -082 -088 095032 033 032 004 00
224230 1648N 06728W 4655 06445 0347 -083 -084 100036 037 031 003 00
224300 1647N 06730W 4656 06441 0347 -080 -080 107036 038 031 003 01
224330 1646N 06733W 4654 06444 0346 -080 -080 106035 036 032 003 01
224400 1645N 06735W 4656 06440 0346 -085 -085 105033 034 033 004 00
224430 1644N 06738W 4656 06440 0346 -085 -088 103032 033 033 003 00
$$
;

[Shuriken]

Judging from the latest frames, I will tentatively claim that RI (yes, the real thing) is starting right about....now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tolakram]

[Portastorm]

Also tobe fair its pretty uncommon that both the GFS and the ECM forecast a weakening of sorts and it doesn't come off. I'll be most interested to look at what recon finds and where exactly the LLC is in relation to the CDO.

Exactly KWT! It would be rare for both globals to be so far off. I can recall a number of times when globals showed a system weakening and many were crowing "no way, it won't happen, what's this model looking at" ... and then the system weakens. I don't know what they see either but it's hard to dismiss both. We shall see.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I'm just going to say it now...don't care if nobody agrees. Ernesto WILL be a hurricane at 8pm. It IS one now. I am sorry if I am offending anyone...or if anyone makes anything based on what I've said. This is completely my opinion.

[Ivanhater]

Here is the issue. The placement of the GFS in 114 hours assumes Ernesto remains a shallow weaker system. If indeed Ernesto strengthens and is a hurricane in the NW Caribbean, it will move toward the weakness. Huge door open for a deep system. Intensity will dictate path.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

[wxwatcher1999]

if ernesto keeps intensifying i am thinking the models will start to adjust to that possibly tonight


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042253
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 06 20120804
224500 1644N 06740W 4658 06439 0346 -085 -086 097028 031 034 003 00
224530 1643N 06743W 4655 06444 0346 -080 -080 091029 030 033 003 01
224600 1642N 06745W 4655 06442 0345 -080 -080 091033 035 033 002 01
224630 1641N 06748W 4656 06440 0344 -080 -080 090037 039 034 003 01
224700 1640N 06750W 4655 06441 0345 -080 -080 104042 043 033 004 01
224730 1640N 06753W 4657 06437 0344 -084 -085 113041 042 030 002 00
224800 1639N 06756W 4655 06442 0344 -080 -090 116040 042 031 002 00
224830 1638N 06758W 4654 06442 0344 -082 -087 110031 038 031 001 00
224900 1637N 06801W 4656 06440 0344 -082 -088 109033 033 030 003 00
224930 1637N 06803W 4656 06439 0344 -085 -090 107032 032 032 002 00
225000 1637N 06806W 4654 06442 0344 -085 -087 099031 031 031 002 00
225030 1637N 06806W 4654 06442 0345 -085 -087 097030 030 031 002 00
225100 1636N 06811W 4656 06441 0345 -085 -086 092030 030 031 002 00
225130 1636N 06814W 4655 06442 0346 -080 -090 096033 034 030 003 00
225200 1635N 06817W 4655 06441 0345 -081 -092 100034 035 030 002 00
225230 1635N 06819W 4656 06441 0345 -085 -090 101034 035 032 001 00
225300 1635N 06822W 4655 06441 0345 -085 -091 103034 035 033 002 00
225330 1635N 06825W 4655 06441 0345 -085 -092 104034 034 033 002 00
225400 1634N 06827W 4655 06440 0344 -084 -091 103034 034 033 002 00
225430 1634N 06830W 4655 06440 0344 -083 -089 104034 035 032 003 03
$$
;

[Rgv20]

But Rgv20, have you looked closely at the 500mb level heights as progged by the globals for later this coming week? The high isn't really centered over Texas but over the Four Corners region. If your scenario were to happen, I'm wouldn't be so certain about a bend back to the W-NW.

For next weekend the GFS and ECMWF show the Ridge nosing just enough East to be able to bend Ernesto WNW but when your talking about 6-7 days in the forecast your playing with fire! lol

[KWT]

Nice hot tower probably going up right over the center right now. On earlier loops I could see the northern edge of the LLC poking above the CDO but I've not seen it in the last 3-4hrs worth of loops so I can only assume its tucked into the deeper convection around 15N.

[brunota2003]

If you have a guess as to what Recon will find during their trip through Ernesto...then vote here:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113247

NOTE: This is the max wind speed that recon will find *at FLIGHT level* the entire mission! Not the first pass!

This is your 2 minute warning...that includes you, vb!