ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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brunota2003
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#2641 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:29 pm

For the record...anyone wondering, obviously the 800+ knot winds "estimated" by Tropical Atlantic (their recon decoder), is definitely not accurate. That is over 1,000 mph...which is over Mach 1.0 (supersonic).
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#2642 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:29 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Whoops...I accidently fell asleep on the computer desk and shut down most of the system! It was such a boring flight annnnnnnnnnn zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz :lol: Hopefully that is the only glitch!


Hmmm....wonders if Brunota would fit into that dropsounde tube..... :roll:
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Models

#2643 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:30 pm

18z GFS shifted significantly north with the second landall. Will be interesting to see the ensembles.
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#2644 Postby Shuriken » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:32 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Yeah, NICE winds.
896.5 knots* (~ 1031.0 mph*)
Category Five Hurricane*

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/
EDIT: This is NOT an accurate observation. Please don't take it as one.
Boy...they build those Orions to take a pounding. :ggreen:
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#2645 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:32 pm

Haven't the models (especially the globals) always had issues regarding ridging and troughs? If it is way out into the Atlantic, they like to weaken the ridges way too fast...nearer the coast, they like to pump the ridges up too much and make them too strong in the future.
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#2646 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:32 pm

I was sitting here wondering what Hurricane Andrew was posting :uarrow: there. I stay on the NHC Hdobs site....check TA once in awhile to see if I've missed a dropsounde or recco.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#2647 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:34 pm

Bet recon will find FL winds of 60-65kts
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#2648 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:36 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 042333
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 10 20120804
232500 1530N 07004W 8432 01574 0108 +166 +132 137038 039 038 001 00
232530 1529N 07006W 8430 01576 0107 +165 +135 137039 039 039 001 00
232600 1528N 07007W 8429 01576 0106 +165 +138 138040 040 038 001 00
232630 1527N 07008W 8429 01576 0106 +165 +140 136039 039 037 001 00
232700 1526N 07009W 8430 01573 0104 +169 +135 137039 040 039 001 00
232730 1524N 07010W 8430 01572 0103 +170 +134 137040 040 039 001 00
232800 1523N 07012W 8430 01573 0103 +169 +138 138039 040 038 002 00
232830 1522N 07013W 8430 01571 0103 +167 +144 141038 039 036 002 00
232900 1521N 07014W 8432 01572 0104 +165 +148 142038 038 038 002 00
232930 1520N 07015W 8428 01574 0101 +168 +149 138038 038 039 001 00
233000 1519N 07016W 8430 01569 0098 +172 +148 134039 039 038 002 00
233030 1518N 07017W 8425 01574 0096 +170 +154 137037 040 038 002 00
233100 1516N 07019W 8429 01569 0096 +168 +158 136033 034 039 002 00
233130 1515N 07020W 8429 01569 0097 +164 +160 139034 035 038 001 00
233200 1514N 07021W 8430 01566 0097 +163 +159 139035 035 038 001 00
233230 1513N 07022W 8428 01569 0098 +161 +161 142034 034 037 001 00
233300 1512N 07023W 8430 01566 0096 +160 +160 143032 034 036 003 01
233330 1511N 07025W 8433 01562 0095 +160 +160 148032 033 036 003 01
233400 1510N 07026W 8429 01567 0094 +165 +164 149034 035 037 002 00
233430 1509N 07027W 8430 01566 0092 +168 +166 149033 035 036 003 00
$$
;
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#2649 Postby Shuriken » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:38 pm

-80C tops now.

Image
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#2650 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:39 pm

18zGFS Ensemble Means thru day 7 is in really good agreement with the operational 18zGFS run.

Image


For comparison around the same time frame the 12zGFS Ensemble Means is a tad further south.

Image
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#2651 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:40 pm

Any new microwave images? I haven't seen a new one since the one at 12:30ish.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#2652 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:40 pm

Didn't realize how quickly 8 will come. Probably no upgrade... wait till 11.
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#2653 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:40 pm

Nice convective burst there thats for sure. That being said the convective coverage is a touch thin at the moment in terms of the size of the system, maybe thats the result of drier air still coming in at times from the S/W?
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#2654 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:40 pm

Image
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#2655 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:41 pm

Ok Mark...get back here with pictures! lol
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#2656 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:43 pm

Initial reports may be indicating the center is on the west side of the convection.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#2657 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:44 pm

I had to eat, back for next set of pictures. :)
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#2658 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:44 pm

tolakram wrote:I had to eat, back for next set of pictures. :)


Ok Mark & Thanks Wxman57
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#2659 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:44 pm

Wxman57, thats interesting, earlier it was on the northern side according to the visuals I was watching (you could see the northern edge poke out. Seems like recon is suggesting that the system is getting thrown around quite alot which would be suggestive of a poorly organised circulation...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#2660 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:Initial reports may be indicating the center is on the west side of the convection.



Pressure and wind direction sure imply that.
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