ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[mcheer23]

The problem is that the winds were 3 knots and less...and by definition...winds 5 knots or less are usually considered "light and variable"...so not sure if that really counts. They could go back through in 10 minutes and those winds be totally different, or gone.

Well you have to admit it's the most west winds they have found this whole mission pretty much... Maybe they are weak but if it's a new center just starting to develop they would be weak!

Where is the new center?

[Air Force Met]

Bone Yard claims another!

Shear is getting it. The low level circulation is running out from under the mid level circulation. This is what the globals (GFS and Euro) are calling for...and why they have been forecasting weakening.

It remains to be seen if it can get its act back together.

[brunota2003]

The new "center" (if it can even be called that, more than likely a transient feature) is well west of the convection.

[Dave]

[floridasun78]

new center ?more west?

[ozonepete]

Bone Yard claims another!

Shear is getting it. The low level circulation is running out from under the mid level circulation. This is what the globals (GFS and Euro) are calling for...and why they have been forecasting weakening.

It remains to be seen if it can get its act back together.

Hey hey there you are! we've all been looking for you. Hope you are well. Obviously we can't see much at all on the satellites overnight but we have RECON. Based on what you are seeing and that shear is supposedly dropping rapidly now, do you think it will hold together? Circulation envelope has certainly been enlarging but convective core has weakened. Yet it is moving into a better environment.

[Janie2006]

Good to see the mighty AFM around these parts!

Clearly these aren't ideal conditions for Ernie...if he doesn't stop this Cannonball Run business he's not going to be doing much of anything. IOW, the system must slow down.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 050540
XXAA 55058 99150 70737 04453 99009 26210 01502 00076 25607 09501
92761 22007 14005 85496 19630 11003 88999 77999
31313 09608 80515
61616 AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1498N07371W 0517 MBL WND 12503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13
005 008843 WL150 08501 083 REL 1498N07371W 051535 SPG 1499N07371W
051729 =
XXBB 55058 99150 70737 04453 00009 26210 11850 19630 22843 /////
21212 00009 01502 11945 14507 22919 13504 33860 11007 44843 00000
31313 09608 80515
61616 AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1498N07371W 0517 MBL WND 12503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13
005 008843 WL150 08501 083 REL 1498N07371W 051535 SPG 1499N07371W
051729 =

[Dave]

DROPSONDE # 14 DECODED

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 05:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 14

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 5th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 15.0N 73.7W
Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSW (200°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Marsden Square: 044 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1009mb (29.80 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 15° (from the NNE) 2 knots (2 mph)
1000mb 76m (249 ft) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 95° (from the E) 1 knots (1 mph)
925mb 761m (2,497 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.3°C (70.3°F) 140° (from the SE) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 1,496m (4,908 ft) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 16.6°C (61.9°F) 110° (from the ESE) 3 knots (3 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 5:15Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 14.98N 73.71W
Splash Time: 5:17Z

Release Location: 14.98N 73.71W View map)
Release Time: 5:15:35Z

Splash Location: 14.99N 73.71W (
Splash Time: 5:17:29Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1008mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 1 knots (1 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1009mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.2°C (77.4°F)
850mb 19.6°C (67.3°F) 16.6°C (61.9°F)
843mb Unavailable

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1009mb (Surface) 15° (from the NNE) 2 knots (2 mph)
945mb 145° (from the SE) 7 knots (8 mph)
919mb 135° (from the SE) 4 knots (5 mph)
860mb 110° (from the ESE) 7 knots (8 mph)
843mb 0° (from the N) 0 knots (0 mph)


---



[floridasun78]

their move center to new location their talk about that in other fourm?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050543
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 47 20120805
053500 1413N 07349W 8430 01575 0098 +178 +161 158006 006 005 002 00
053530 1414N 07348W 8429 01577 0098 +176 +167 157005 006 007 001 00
053600 1414N 07346W 8432 01574 0099 +175 +172 158005 005 005 002 00
053630 1414N 07345W 8428 01579 0099 +175 +171 162005 005 003 003 00
053700 1415N 07343W 8430 01577 0097 +180 +166 159006 006 006 002 00
053730 1415N 07341W 8430 01577 0099 +176 +162 160008 008 008 001 00
053800 1416N 07340W 8429 01577 0098 +177 +161 158008 008 006 002 00
053830 1416N 07338W 8430 01575 0095 +180 +165 147007 007 010 001 00
053900 1417N 07337W 8430 01574 0097 +177 +161 157009 009 010 002 00
053930 1417N 07335W 8432 01574 0099 +175 +161 161010 010 012 001 00
054000 1418N 07334W 8428 01578 0099 +175 +163 164011 011 006 003 00
054030 1418N 07332W 8430 01575 0102 +172 +165 168012 012 008 002 00
054100 1419N 07331W 8427 01582 0105 +170 +168 170013 013 010 001 00
054130 1420N 07329W 8430 01578 0106 +160 +160 176014 014 010 001 01
054200 1420N 07327W 8429 01579 0107 +160 +160 180013 014 006 003 01
054230 1421N 07326W 8430 01578 0106 +170 +170 190015 017 031 004 01
054300 1421N 07324W 8430 01577 0105 +170 +170 187017 018 039 005 01
054330 1422N 07322W 8431 01577 0104 +170 +170 190017 019 038 004 01
054400 1422N 07321W 8428 01578 0104 +170 +170 197018 020 039 005 01
054430 1423N 07319W 8427 01579 //// +157 //// 197020 021 038 006 01
$$
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[ConvergenceZone]

Bone Yard claims another!

Actually, this worked out well for me, because had this storm been strengthening, I would have been glued to this board all weekend, but now I'm able to have a weekend of getting stuff done and I don't have to worry about the board feeding my addiction, LOL....

Yea I know, very few storms actually make it to hurricane status, but I do find that I'd rather waste my energy on the storms that actually are worth watching.....
Remember, the models kept Ernesto weak and we couldn't figure out why, but I guess now we are finally seeing why......
good night....

[wkwally]

just read the 2AM advisory and it does not look like the NHC is ready to downgrade this and seems as if they are sticking to their guns

[brunota2003]

Yeah...was just where they finally found the west winds at was west of the convection.

[ConvergenceZone]

Bone Yard claims another!

Shear is getting it. The low level circulation is running out from under the mid level circulation. This is what the globals (GFS and Euro) are calling for...and why they have been forecasting weakening.

It remains to be seen if it can get its act back together.

AirForce, what blows my mind is, how the heck could the models know this in advance?? I mean, the shear wasn't even forecasted to be quite this bad......How the heck do the models know that the low level circulation would be running out from under the mid level circulation several days in advance????.. Are they psychic or what? LOL.

[Dave]

[ConvergenceZone]

just read the 2AM advisory and it does not look like the NHC is ready to downgrade this and seems as if they are sticking to their guns

They won't downgrade it this quickly. The decoupling of Ernesto has been very recent and even so, they probably want to wait until the next advisory or 2 before they drop it down...

[Kingarabian]

Would love to help you out Dave but i'm on my phone! Anyways this is one long mission.

[ozonepete]

Looks like it's finally slowing down now. That should stop the "self-imposed" shear and aid in strengthening.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050553
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 48 20120805
054500 1424N 07317W 8436 01567 //// +152 //// 188017 021 038 009 01
054530 1424N 07316W 8431 01573 //// +150 //// 176017 020 036 008 01
054600 1425N 07314W 8431 01573 //// +151 //// 179013 020 040 008 01
054630 1425N 07312W 8434 01571 //// +144 //// 155028 030 037 009 01
054700 1425N 07311W 8424 01579 //// +135 //// 150030 031 033 006 01
054730 1426N 07309W 8431 01572 //// +146 //// 150029 031 035 007 01
054800 1426N 07308W 8424 01577 //// +147 //// 146026 030 036 006 01
054830 1426N 07306W 8427 01577 //// +139 //// 139024 025 034 008 01
054900 1427N 07304W 8430 01573 //// +144 //// 133024 025 033 010 01
054930 1427N 07303W 8432 01572 //// +141 //// 132027 029 031 007 01
055000 1427N 07301W 8430 01574 //// +134 //// 131026 030 031 008 01
055030 1428N 07300W 8428 01578 //// +139 //// 131030 032 032 011 01
055100 1428N 07258W 8432 01573 //// +138 //// 136031 035 031 011 01
055130 1428N 07257W 8425 01584 //// +143 //// 147033 034 029 011 01
055200 1428N 07255W 8438 01571 //// +142 //// 140033 038 041 021 01
055230 1429N 07254W 8435 01569 //// +135 //// 156036 038 041 020 01
055300 1429N 07252W 8436 01568 0112 +150 +150 160032 035 036 008 01
055330 1429N 07251W 8436 01568 0113 +152 +152 161034 037 036 006 00
055400 1430N 07249W 8433 01572 0111 +158 +142 164041 043 036 006 00
055430 1430N 07247W 8420 01585 0113 +155 +133 168044 045 035 007 00
$$
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