ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051159
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 17 20120805
115030 1520N 07525W 8430 01569 0098 +171 +131 142027 027 043 001 00
115100 1519N 07526W 8430 01568 0098 +168 +133 141027 029 044 001 00
115130 1518N 07527W 8427 01568 0102 +159 +134 139026 027 043 003 00
115200 1517N 07529W 8433 01567 0107 +153 +133 149030 031 044 001 00
115230 1516N 07530W 8428 01569 0103 +159 +132 151027 031 045 007 00
115300 1515N 07531W 8428 01569 0107 +153 +130 142029 030 044 008 00
115330 1514N 07532W 8429 01569 0104 +158 +127 139028 031 034 004 00
115400 1513N 07534W 8434 01567 0097 +175 +125 143023 025 030 000 00
115430 1511N 07535W 8428 01572 0094 +179 +124 144022 023 030 000 03
115500 1510N 07536W 8430 01569 0093 +178 +126 142021 021 030 000 00
115530 1509N 07538W 8431 01568 0093 +181 +129 141022 024 031 000 03
115600 1508N 07539W 8424 01578 0097 +175 +133 140020 024 030 001 03
115630 1507N 07540W 8430 01569 0096 +173 +136 141020 021 030 000 00
115700 1506N 07542W 8428 01573 0096 +174 +137 143018 020 018 000 03
115730 1505N 07543W 8430 01569 0096 +172 +139 142017 018 014 002 00
115800 1504N 07544W 8428 01570 0094 +172 +139 144017 018 010 001 00
115830 1503N 07546W 8432 01568 0096 +173 +140 141017 017 006 001 03
115900 1502N 07547W 8432 01568 0096 +172 +141 139016 017 014 001 00
115930 1501N 07548W 8432 01568 0096 +170 +142 138015 015 007 002 00
120000 1500N 07550W 8428 01579 0101 +170 +143 136014 015 008 002 00
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

Based on Recon data it once again looks like it's lost it's LLC. It looks like it's just a VERY disorganized area of low pressure with multiple areas of lowest pressure.

[Sanibel]

We've seen fast-moving waves lose the center and west winds when transiting the east Caribbean. This one is odd though because it had a promising CDO and lost it. It almost looks like it has busted open. It will be very interesting to see how the west Caribbean effect influences this if it isn't too close to Honduras.


"Ernesto" lives up to the tradition of a storm name that goes easy on people.

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

Check the visible sat. Low-level swirl near 15.3N/76.2W - well west of where recon is looking.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051209
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 18 20120805
120030 1459N 07551W 8432 01570 0098 +170 +143 135013 014 010 001 00
120100 1458N 07552W 8428 01570 0096 +170 +144 139013 014 012 000 00
120130 1457N 07554W 8429 01568 0094 +171 +144 141011 012 010 000 00
120200 1456N 07555W 8431 01567 0095 +170 +144 144010 012 009 000 00
120230 1455N 07556W 8430 01570 0096 +170 +145 131009 011 009 000 00
120300 1454N 07557W 8432 01568 0095 +174 +144 137009 010 006 001 00
120330 1452N 07559W 8430 01569 0091 +178 +145 137008 009 005 000 00
120400 1451N 07600W 8431 01567 0088 +182 +146 131008 009 009 001 03
120430 1450N 07601W 8428 01572 0090 +179 +149 125008 009 004 003 00
120500 1449N 07602W 8430 01570 0091 +179 +151 113007 008 005 001 00
120530 1448N 07604W 8432 01570 0091 +181 +153 107007 007 004 002 00
120600 1446N 07605W 8428 01573 0091 +180 +154 102006 007 002 000 00
120630 1445N 07605W 8432 01569 0091 +182 +156 101005 006 001 001 00
120700 1443N 07606W 8428 01573 0092 +177 +157 101005 005 001 002 00
120730 1442N 07606W 8429 01573 0095 +175 +157 091005 005 001 002 03
120800 1440N 07607W 8430 01572 0094 +176 +157 090004 004 001 001 00
120830 1438N 07607W 8430 01573 0092 +180 +157 079004 004 001 000 00
120900 1437N 07608W 8429 01574 0095 +177 +157 047002 004 001 001 00
120930 1435N 07608W 8430 01572 0092 +180 +157 029003 003 001 001 03
121000 1434N 07608W 8430 01573 0091 +182 +157 055003 004 001 002 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

I just found that weird vortex that looks like a fist. Is there more dry air-ramming shear on this than predicted?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Ernesto is probably just a low pressure system, but wxman57 is saying it has an LLC...hard to see that. It's hard to see why Ernesto is weakening. Could some one explain this process to me?

[tolakram]

[Sanibel]

Could some one explain this process to me?

A weak system that showed false bursting due to shear enhancement was moving too fast and encountering dry air in a hostile Caribbean. It then had the final blow dealt to it by westerly shear.

[perk]

Plane didn't seem to find an LLC last night, and the buoy it passed (to the north of according to NHC track) didn't show a wind shift to the SW or W. Could well be an open wave now. Just got a visible sat pic. Might be a little swirl near 15.2N/75.8W - well west of any convection.

Ithink i see the swirl you're reffering to.It also appear to be a bit further north.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051219
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 19 20120805
121030 1432N 07609W 8429 01573 0091 +183 +157 042004 004 000 001 00
121100 1430N 07609W 8432 01572 0092 +185 +157 017003 004 000 002 00
121130 1429N 07610W 8430 01573 0092 +184 +157 007003 004 000 001 03
121200 1429N 07610W 8430 01573 0094 +180 +157 016004 004 000 001 03
121230 1426N 07612W 8433 01570 0096 +177 +157 010005 005 001 002 03
121300 1425N 07613W 8425 01578 0098 +172 +157 352006 007 001 001 00
121330 1423N 07614W 8421 01585 0101 +171 +156 010008 008 002 000 00
121400 1422N 07616W 8433 01574 0101 +175 +155 015008 008 000 001 00
121430 1421N 07617W 8429 01574 0099 +175 +153 011010 010 001 001 03
121500 1419N 07619W 8429 01575 0097 +177 +151 015011 012 002 000 03
121530 1418N 07620W 8432 01570 0097 +176 +151 020011 011 001 001 03
121600 1417N 07622W 8430 01574 0101 +175 +150 013010 011 001 002 03
121630 1415N 07623W 8430 01574 0099 +176 +150 016009 010 000 002 03
121700 1414N 07624W 8429 01576 0101 +175 +150 018011 012 002 001 03
121730 1412N 07626W 8432 01574 0104 +171 +150 023012 013 002 001 03
121800 1411N 07627W 8429 01579 0103 +171 +150 037010 011 005 002 00
121830 1410N 07629W 8431 01573 0098 +176 +149 023011 011 005 002 03
121900 1410N 07629W 8431 01573 0097 +177 +148 017011 011 002 001 03
121930 1407N 07632W 8430 01574 0097 +179 +148 018011 012 001 002 00
122000 1406N 07634W 8431 01575 0100 +177 +148 022013 014 002 002 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

No west winds.

I'll be around but unable to post obs or images for most of the morning. Someone take over please.

archive is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2012/AHONT1/

[CalmBeforeStorm]

iI think that weak storms coming in low in the Caribbean near South America don't get the inflow necessary to sustain their circulations.

[tailgater]

Is the GHCC sat images down for anyone else. I'm at a loss w/o those hi-res loops.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Once Ernesto dies, the Florence thread will crack to life. Ernesto is probably a tropical low from my amateur opinion. Nhc needs recon to prove all of this though and no west winds have been found. Is a TL.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Once Ernesto dies, the Florence thread will crack to life. Ernesto is probably a tropical low from my amateur opinion. Nhc needs recon to prove all of this though and no west winds have been found. Is a TL.

Recon did find a LLC... 1009mb pressure and very weak west winds but they ARE there!

[JamesCaneTracker]

000
URNT12 KNHC 051223
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 05/12:11:10Z
B. 14 deg 30 min N
076 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1502 m
D. 45 kt
E. 041 deg 59 nm
F. 133 deg 46 kt
G. 043 deg 148 nm
H. 1009 mb
I. 14 C / 1525 m
J. 19 C / 1523 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 135 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 04
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 11:25:30Z
LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND, LAST 10 MINS BEFORE FIX.
;

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 12:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 12:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°30'N 76°09'W (14.5N 76.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 245 miles (395 km) to the S (170°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,502m (4,928ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 133° at 46kts (From the SE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 148 nautical miles (170 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:25:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND, LAST 10 MINS BEFORE FIX.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing much indication of an LLC on recon obs. I place the weak cloud swirl near 15.35N/76.27W. That appears to be what's left of the center.

[JamesCaneTracker]

I'm not seeing much indication of an LLC on recon obs. I place the weak cloud swirl near 15.35N/76.27W. That appears to be what's left of the center.

Your the expert not me but it stands to reason that they found a LLC if they released a VDM AND there is a Wind Shift in the area of the VDM...