ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[wjs3]

I'm not seeing much indication of an LLC on recon obs. I place the weak cloud swirl near 15.35N/76.27W. That appears to be what's left of the center.

Agree and this "center" is consistent with the microwave image AJC3 posted earlier.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing much indication of an LLC on recon obs. I place the weak cloud swirl near 15.35N/76.27W. That appears to be what's left of the center.

Your the expert not me but it stands to reason that they found a LLC if they released a VDM AND there is a Wind Shift in the area of the VDM...

They released VDMs last night and couldn't find a well-defined center. Just got an email from someone who flew the missions and they're stumped as to what happened to Ernesto's center. They flew all over looking for it.

[Shuriken]

I still maintain that all the dry air enthusiasts (including the NHC, which I am disappointed in) are flat-out wrong (as in: totally 100% wrong) -- the precipitable water associated with Ernesto is even higher this morning that it was yesterday.

This storm is swimming in a boatload of juicy air, but it just won't go UP.

Some other culprit is responsible, and I'm picking high-altitude cap. Yesterday, for several glorious hours, Earnesto flared at 200mb and we thought it really would take off. Today, it's being smothered again by a big invisible blanket.

[Shuriken]

LLC is obvious on visibles:

[tailgater]

I thought AFM explaination was a good one along with semi permanent low near Panama.





I think it strenghtens again once the MLC dies off (if it dies off).

[jinftl]

Has there been an analysis of how many developing storms struggled like Ernesto has while traversting the Carribbean Sea at a very low latitude (almost Aruba latitude) with the South American landmass not far to the south? Systems that hadn't really fully developed before they passed the Islands (Ivan doesn't count then - he was a beast by Barbados) and paralleled the coast of Venezuela and Colombia say at or south of 15N and mysteriously never got it together?

Kind of reminds me of the study that was done that found 11 of 12 storms of Cat 3 intensity or higher weakened considerably in the final 12 hours as they approached the northern Gulf Coast...and the huge landmass that is the U.S.

[RL3AO]

I noticed yesterday that surface convergence seemed to be an issue. When you looked at satellite you saw the LL clouds west and south of it not piling towards the low but moving away. I don't know how typical this is as I've never really paid attention. Maybe its more normal then I'm thinking.

[TheBurn]

12:45z VIS / IR (Day / Night)

[vbhoutex]

I still maintain that all the dry air enthusiasts (including the NHC, which I am disappointed in) are flat-out wrong (as in: totally 100% wrong) -- the precipitable water associated with Ernesto is even higher this morning that it was yesterday.

This storm is swimming in a boatload of juicy air, but it just won't go UP.

Some other culprit is responsible, and I'm picking high-altitude cap. Yesterday, for several glorious hours, Earnesto flared at 200mb and we thought it really would take off. Today, it's being smothered again by a big invisible blanket.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Maintain all you want. I can't find one met that would agree with you. And until you can provide some sort of proof that "they are 100% wrong" I would watch what you are saying about the NHC and for that matter every other pro-met. I saw it yesterday as did others. You are welcome to your opinions, but I have yet to see you provide any proof!!

[RL3AO]

0z Sounding from Curacao.



Some dry air around 700mb but it looks like it had some air moving towards Ernesto. Maybe puts a dent in my convergence theory.

[Shuriken]

Has there been an analysis of how many developing storms struggled like Ernesto has while traversting the Carribbean Sea at a very low latitude (almost Aruba latitude) with the South American landmass not far to the south? Systems that hadn't really fully developed before they passed the Islands (Ivan doesn't count then - he was a beast by Barbados) and paralleled the coast of Venezuela and Colombia say at or south of 15N and mysteriously never got it together?

Hurricane Jean scraped along South American half onshore as a TS, and held together to blow up in the Gulf of Panama and cream Nicaragua as a cat-4 in 1988.

Kind of reminds me of the study that was done that found 11 of 12 storms of Cat 3 intensity or higher weakened considerably in the final 12 hours as they approached the northern Gulf Coast...and the huge landmass that is the U.S.

[/quote]Ubiquitously they were in the process of recurving, and that typically implies increasing shear and elimination of equator-ward exhaust channels. (Contrast to Hugo, which was not recurving and was intensifying at landfall.)

[jinftl]

Thanks for the quick reply! To my un-trained and non-promet mind it just seems like having such a huge landmass near a developing system would somehow 'cut off' potential moisture that they storm would use as fuel to intensify, compared to, say, if it was in the middle of the ocean. again, no science behind my post - just a thought. May not be a deal-breaker for a storm getting going, but maybe it could take a good # out until they move into less land-lined water to the west and nw?

Has there been an analysis of how many developing storms struggled like Ernesto has while traversting the Carribbean Sea at a very low latitude (almost Aruba latitude) with the South American landmass not far to the south? Systems that hadn't really fully developed before they passed the Islands (Ivan doesn't count then - he was a beast by Barbados) and paralleled the coast of Venezuela and Colombia say at or south of 15N and mysteriously never got it together?

Hurricane Jean scraped along South American half onshore as a TS, and held together to blow up in the Gulf of Panama and cream Nicaragua as a cat-4 in 1988.

Kind of reminds me of the study that was done that found 11 of 12 storms of Cat 3 intensity or higher weakened considerably in the final 12 hours as they approached the northern Gulf Coast...and the huge landmass that is the U.S.

Ubiquitously they were in the process of recurving, and that typically implies increasing shear and elimination of equator-ward exhaust channels. (Contrast to Hugo, which was not recurving and was intensifying at landfall.)[/quote]

[Shuriken]

I still maintain that all the dry air enthusiasts (including the NHC, which I am disappointed in) are flat-out wrong (as in: totally 100% wrong) -- the precipitable water associated with Ernesto is even higher this morning that it was yesterday.

This storm is swimming in a boatload of juicy air, but it just won't go UP.

Some other culprit is responsible, and I'm picking high-altitude cap. Yesterday, for several glorious hours, Earnesto flared at 200mb and we thought it really would take off. Today, it's being smothered again by a big invisible blanket.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Maintain all you want. I can't find one met that would agree with you. And until you can provide some sort of proof that "they are 100% wrong" I would watch what you are saying about the NHC and for that matter every other pro-met. I saw it yesterday as did others. You are welcome to your opinions, but I have yet to see you provide any proof!!

OK, I submit into evidence the precipitable water image above. -- That IS why I included it in the first place. Do you see any dry air intruding INTO Ernesto? No. It's-just-not-there.

(They throw these satellites up, and nobody uses 'em. <shaking head>)

The highest levels of juice (60mm in the column) are directly over where the low-level center is (which is well removed from any dry air wrap-around allegedly sneaking through South America on the bottom side...and that's not happening either, as you can see from the loop). Yet the LLC is just a field of swirling cumulus this morning. -- If this was an active storm ingesting dry air, it wouldn't look like that at all. There'd be big CBs and some arcs racing away.

[wxwatcher1999]

what is the gfdl and nam seeing that would still pull ernesto to the nw gom?

[Mouton]

Has there been an analysis of how many developing storms struggled like Ernesto has while traversting the Carribbean Sea at a very low latitude (almost Aruba latitude) with the South American landmass not far to the south? Systems that hadn't really fully developed before they passed the Islands (Ivan doesn't count then - he was a beast by Barbados) and paralleled the coast of Venezuela and Colombia say at or south of 15N and mysteriously never got it together?

Your reference to Ivan was precisely why yesterday I felt we needed to see where we where with E's intensity before rendering its probably final pathways. Just by way of annecdotal recollection, it appeared to me that low latitude storms, especially thought traveling at a good clip, do not go northward unless they have become a strong threat by south of Jamaica. E has not and more than likely will continue westward into Mexico and not pose any threat to the US.

Just my observation and not meant to imply any guidance for what preparations one may make about this storm....I leave that to the experts who seem to do a very credible job.

[tolakram]

OK, I submit in evidence the precipitable water image above. -- That IS why I included it in the first place. Do you see any dry air intruding INTO Ernesto? No. It's-just-not-there.

(They throw these satellites up, and nobody uses 'em. <shaking head>)

At this point I think most reasonable people would try and figure out their mistake instead of claiming they know more than multiple pro-mets and the experts at the NHC. Saying why you think something is one thing, telling us someone is 100% wrong takes it to a whole new level.

TPW does not tell the entire story, it's just one view into the environment around the storm.

[tailgater]

A close up of the lower half of Ernesto.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[tolakram]

^^ and an excellent shot of the LLC.



This was one reason i asked the other day, how does one measure west winds when something is moving east at 20? Can it still be considered a closed low even though west winds are calm?

[wxwatcher1999]

ernesto looks like he is trying to get some convection on the east side....maybe??

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051229
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 20 20120805
122030 1404N 07635W 8434 01574 0102 +175 +148 020012 013 008 000 03
122100 1403N 07637W 8430 01576 0102 +174 +149 021012 013 002 001 00
122130 1401N 07638W 8432 01575 0104 +172 +149 022013 014 001 001 00
122200 1400N 07639W 8429 01578 0105 +170 +149 028013 014 001 001 03
122230 1358N 07641W 8432 01575 0107 +166 +148 028014 014 000 001 03
122300 1357N 07642W 8430 01572 0101 +165 +148 026013 014 001 002 00
122330 1355N 07644W 8430 01567 0095 +169 +147 025012 013 003 001 00
122400 1354N 07645W 8434 01562 0100 +157 +147 055011 013 015 004 00
122430 1353N 07647W 8427 01569 0104 +151 +145 036010 013 022 002 00
122500 1351N 07648W 8439 01553 0090 +170 +142 048009 010 015 002 03
122530 1350N 07649W 8431 01563 0091 +168 +140 051008 010 013 001 00
122600 1349N 07651W 8435 01559 0092 +170 +140 058010 011 014 003 03
122630 1347N 07651W 8420 01573 0092 +166 +142 054010 011 /// /// 03
122700 1347N 07650W 8434 01558 0091 +168 +145 065008 011 001 001 00
122730 1347N 07648W 8428 01567 0093 +164 +146 070008 009 001 002 03
122800 1347N 07647W 8429 01564 0093 +166 +146 068010 011 000 002 03
122830 1347N 07645W 8430 01564 0094 +165 +146 065010 011 001 001 03
122900 1347N 07643W 8428 01567 0092 +169 +146 068009 009 001 001 03
122930 1347N 07642W 8430 01564 0092 +170 +146 074008 009 001 001 00
123000 1346N 07640W 8429 01564 0090 +171 +146 059006 008 006 002 00
$$
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000
URNT15 KNHC 051239
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 21 20120805
123030 1346N 07638W 8430 01562 0088 +170 +146 071008 008 004 002 00
123100 1346N 07637W 8429 01563 0087 +174 +146 079007 008 011 001 00
123130 1345N 07635W 8431 01562 0087 +174 +146 082006 007 009 002 03
123200 1345N 07634W 8432 01562 0087 +173 +147 098006 007 003 003 00
123230 1345N 07632W 8429 01564 0087 +174 +148 105007 008 001 001 03
123300 1345N 07630W 8430 01562 0086 +171 +148 100007 007 001 002 03
123330 1344N 07629W 8428 01563 0084 +175 +149 103005 006 000 002 03
123400 1344N 07627W 8430 01562 0084 +178 +149 099006 007 000 002 03
123430 1344N 07625W 8429 01564 0088 +173 +150 092005 006 003 001 00
123500 1344N 07624W 8428 01567 0091 +169 +151 084006 006 001 002 03
123530 1343N 07622W 8430 01563 0091 +169 +151 088006 007 000 001 00
123600 1343N 07621W 8429 01567 0090 +173 +150 099006 006 000 001 03
123630 1343N 07619W 8429 01568 0089 +179 +149 108006 006 000 002 03
123700 1343N 07617W 8430 01569 0091 +175 +149 113006 006 000 001 00
123730 1343N 07616W 8430 01567 0090 +175 +150 115006 006 000 001 00
123800 1343N 07614W 8430 01565 0088 +175 +150 118006 006 000 001 03
123830 1343N 07612W 8429 01567 0091 +175 +151 125005 006 000 001 03
123900 1342N 07611W 8429 01567 0091 +174 +151 130006 006 000 001 03
123930 1342N 07609W 8427 01569 0092 +172 +151 136004 006 000 001 03
124000 1342N 07607W 8436 01561 0092 +172 +151 128005 005 001 001 00
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 051249
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 22 20120805
124030 1342N 07606W 8429 01568 0092 +170 +151 131004 005 000 003 03
124100 1342N 07604W 8430 01567 0093 +170 +151 134004 005 002 000 03
124130 1341N 07602W 8429 01568 0095 +170 +151 131004 005 003 002 00
124200 1340N 07602W 8431 01565 0095 +168 +151 143002 003 003 002 03
124230 1338N 07601W 8429 01568 0095 +166 +151 119002 003 002 002 03
124300 1337N 07600W 8430 01568 0097 +169 +150 150004 005 000 001 00
124330 1335N 07559W 8428 01570 0094 +170 +150 166003 003 000 001 00
124400 1334N 07558W 8429 01569 0097 +168 +150 176005 005 003 002 03
124430 1333N 07558W 8432 01568 0097 +166 +150 176007 008 001 001 00
124500 1331N 07557W 8427 01572 0098 +166 +149 170006 008 012 003 00
124530 1330N 07556W 8432 01567 0101 +161 +148 142009 011 011 003 00
124600 1328N 07555W 8429 01568 0098 +166 +146 141008 011 007 003 00
124630 1327N 07554W 8433 01564 0107 +149 +144 156007 009 009 003 03
124700 1326N 07553W 8428 01569 0101 +160 +141 158012 013 008 003 00
124730 1326N 07551W 8428 01570 0105 +157 +139 162013 014 010 004 00
124800 1325N 07550W 8429 01572 0103 +163 +137 170014 014 008 001 00
124830 1325N 07548W 8431 01569 0101 +165 +136 170014 014 008 001 00
124900 1325N 07547W 8432 01568 0101 +165 +136 170013 013 006 001 00
124930 1324N 07545W 8429 01569 0100 +165 +137 167013 013 006 001 00
125000 1324N 07544W 8430 01569 0099 +169 +138 159013 014 008 000 00
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 051259
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 23 20120805
125030 1323N 07542W 8429 01572 0097 +170 +139 159014 015 005 001 00
125100 1323N 07540W 8430 01570 0099 +170 +141 163012 014 006 002 03
125130 1322N 07539W 8430 01569 0099 +167 +142 158013 014 008 002 00
125200 1322N 07537W 8430 01568 0098 +167 +143 163011 013 018 000 00
125230 1321N 07536W 8432 01568 0102 +162 +143 164014 014 018 002 00
125300 1321N 07534W 8428 01572 0102 +163 +143 164014 015 019 001 00
125330 1320N 07533W 8429 01569 0101 +160 +143 166015 016 022 000 00
125400 1320N 07531W 8429 01568 0100 +164 +142 166015 016 020 001 00
125430 1319N 07530W 8430 01568 0099 +166 +141 161017 017 020 001 00
125500 1319N 07528W 8432 01567 0097 +170 +140 159018 018 021 001 00
125530 1318N 07527W 8428 01570 0095 +171 +140 160018 019 022 000 00
125600 1318N 07525W 8431 01568 0093 +175 +139 163019 020 022 000 00
125630 1317N 07523W 8428 01572 0096 +172 +139 161020 021 020 000 00
125700 1317N 07522W 8430 01570 0097 +170 +139 155020 021 021 000 00
125730 1316N 07520W 8432 01568 0099 +169 +139 148021 022 020 002 00
125800 1316N 07519W 8429 01572 0100 +166 +140 145022 023 017 001 00
125830 1316N 07517W 8429 01569 0098 +169 +140 148021 022 018 001 00
125900 1315N 07516W 8430 01570 0102 +165 +141 142022 022 019 001 00
125930 1315N 07515W 8430 01569 0099 +168 +141 145020 022 018 001 00
130000 1314N 07513W 8431 01570 0100 +165 +141 144020 020 017 001 00
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 051309
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 24 20120805
130030 1314N 07512W 8428 01573 0100 +167 +142 144020 020 018 001 00
130100 1313N 07510W 8430 01570 0098 +172 +142 144019 020 020 002 00
130130 1313N 07509W 8429 01572 0101 +169 +142 141019 020 021 001 00
130200 1312N 07507W 8429 01573 0100 +170 +142 143018 019 023 000 00
130230 1312N 07506W 8432 01572 0102 +170 +143 142018 018 021 001 00
130300 1312N 07504W 8428 01574 0101 +170 +143 139018 019 015 003 03
130330 1313N 07503W 8434 01568 0100 +170 +144 135018 019 /// /// 03
130400 1314N 07505W 8433 01570 0096 +176 +146 137018 019 023 002 03
130430 1315N 07506W 8427 01573 0093 +177 +147 138020 020 024 003 00
130500 1316N 07508W 8432 01569 0094 +176 +147 138020 020 024 003 00
130530 1317N 07509W 8429 01570 0091 +178 +146 139020 021 024 004 00
130600 1319N 07511W 8431 01569 0096 +172 +145 136021 021 024 002 00
130630 1320N 07512W 8430 01572 0096 +175 +144 138020 021 022 001 00
130700 1321N 07513W 8429 01573 0099 +171 +144 137022 022 022 002 00
130730 1323N 07515W 8430 01570 0100 +170 +143 135023 024 023 002 00
130800 1324N 07516W 8429 01572 0099 +168 +143 137024 025 024 002 00
130830 1325N 07517W 8433 01569 0104 +162 +142 133027 027 021 004 00
130900 1327N 07518W 8430 01569 0102 +163 +141 139027 027 021 005 00
130930 1328N 07519W 8427 01573 0106 +156 +140 140029 030 023 004 00
131000 1330N 07520W 8433 01567 0111 +150 +137 139031 031 023 005 00
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 051319
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 25 20120805
131030 1332N 07522W 8423 01575 0103 +161 +133 141032 032 030 002 00
131100 1333N 07523W 8428 01568 0102 +160 +129 153033 033 030 003 00
131130 1335N 07524W 8425 01569 0098 +166 +126 153034 037 028 002 00
131200 1336N 07525W 8437 01557 0099 +164 +124 147031 034 029 003 00
131230 1337N 07527W 8427 01569 0098 +165 +125 134025 030 028 004 00
131300 1338N 07528W 8429 01567 0101 +162 +127 142025 028 028 003 00
131330 1339N 07530W 8428 01572 0113 +145 +129 143030 032 026 005 00
131400 1340N 07532W 8427 01568 0107 +149 +129 134028 032 029 004 00
131430 1341N 07534W 8434 01562 0106 +151 +127 138025 028 030 010 00
131500 1341N 07535W 8435 01561 0111 +145 +125 150020 024 033 012 03
131530 1342N 07537W 8422 01575 0111 +144 +123 151020 022 033 010 00
131600 1344N 07538W 8429 01568 0111 +145 +121 144016 022 032 008 00
131630 1345N 07539W 8429 01569 0113 +143 +119 142013 015 032 011 00
131700 1346N 07540W 8432 01568 0111 +148 +117 161013 013 034 010 00
131730 1348N 07541W 8428 01570 0104 +160 +116 167012 013 036 006 00
131800 1349N 07542W 8430 01568 0109 +149 +116 137015 018 035 005 00
131830 1351N 07543W 8429 01569 0105 +158 +116 128017 018 034 006 00
131900 1352N 07544W 8428 01570 0098 +170 +118 135015 017 033 003 00
131930 1353N 07546W 8428 01569 0097 +171 +120 145015 015 033 001 00
132000 1355N 07547W 8434 01565 0098 +169 +123 138013 015 035 002 00
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 051329
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 26 20120805
132030 1356N 07548W 8428 01570 0107 +153 +126 133012 014 035 006 00
132100 1357N 07549W 8425 01574 0112 +143 +128 134014 015 037 009 00
132130 1358N 07551W 8433 01568 0111 +150 +127 146005 013 036 008 00
132200 1400N 07552W 8425 01573 0096 +170 +126 185004 004 036 002 00
132230 1401N 07553W 8433 01563 0093 +173 +127 183003 004 036 001 00
132300 1402N 07554W 8426 01570 0093 +173 +130 172005 005 037 000 00
132330 1403N 07556W 8427 01569 0094 +171 +135 173005 006 036 001 00
132400 1404N 07557W 8430 01565 0092 +174 +140 165006 006 036 000 00
132430 1406N 07558W 8432 01567 0093 +175 +144 158004 006 036 002 03
132500 1407N 07559W 8424 01572 0090 +175 +148 158002 003 035 002 00
132530 1408N 07601W 8434 01559 0088 +173 +151 167001 003 035 002 00
132600 1409N 07602W 8428 01568 0090 +172 +154 134002 003 033 002 00
132630 1410N 07603W 8424 01570 0094 +164 +157 122006 007 033 003 00
132700 1412N 07604W 8426 01569 0101 +150 +150 122009 011 034 004 01
132730 1413N 07605W 8440 01557 0096 +165 +156 147005 010 033 002 00
132800 1414N 07607W 8435 01561 0095 +165 +154 129003 007 035 003 00
132830 1415N 07608W 8428 01569 0095 +167 +154 127005 007 033 004 00
132900 1416N 07609W 8428 01570 0097 +166 +153 128007 007 030 002 00
132930 1418N 07610W 8430 01570 0098 +170 +152 126007 007 022 003 00
133000 1419N 07612W 8430 01568 0096 +167 +152 131007 008 004 001 00
$$
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