ATL: INVEST 91L

[northjaxpro]

Good morning!

Looking at the IR floater early this morning, it appears to me that 91L is drifting N-NW parallel off the SE FL coast. A new convective burst is now occuring near where I believe a weak surface circulation is located just to the southwest of Grand Bahama Island. There was a NAM model run I saw yesterday which had 91L developing into a tropical storm and moving directly parallel up along the east coast of the peninsula. I thought of it as a clear outlier, but that model run may not be so far-fetched after all. It will be intersting to see what happens the next 24-36 hours with 91L. I don't think it will reach TS status right now due to shear, but it may get to be a depression if it can have more convective bursts, which appears to happening again currently.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jlauderdal]

MiamiWx Assessment was excellent and I agree that once the shear lets up and the ridge
builds in this could be a tropical storm moving into South Florida this weekend.
I'm not too worried about the wind, after all this is a tropical storm and nothing compared to the
major hurricanes that crossed the state in 04 and 05, but I do think
some areas could see some very heavy rain from this.

Proximity to land is the issue here not shear, nothing is out of the question but a TS and this system really doesn't belong in the conversation, lets see what happens today. Tabasco sauce with my crow if it goes to a TD.

[northjaxpro]

[northjaxpro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

[Sanibel]

Sunny sunrise this morning here on the west coast of Florida. No sign of anything developing nearby.

[jlauderdal]

Sunny sunrise this morning here on the west coast of Florida. No sign of anything developing nearby.

sunny sunrise on the east coast, good heating should get it going later though

[Aric Dunn]

appears a weak surface circ is developing off the east coast of central florida seen on radar a visible this morning, it wont have much time to organize unless it stalls or move really slow.

[artist]

I wish http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ was updating. I sent them e-mail so hopefully they can get it corrected.

[Aric Dunn]

I wish http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ was updating. I sent them e-mail so hopefully they can get it corrected.

yeah, but you can use this instead.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/m ... h-rgb.html

appears there is a circ developing. still weak and should be inland today at some point.

[northjaxpro]

There is a surface circulation about 75-100 miles east of Melbourne. This has been drifting N-NW parallel off the east coast of Florida since yesterday. I'm really beginning to think that maybe the NAM model yesterday showing development parallel off the Florida East Coast may not be so off base.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Recon canceled.

INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR 04/1900Z CANCELED AT 04/1210Z

[Mouton]

Although our barometer has been pretty steady here in NE Florida, we have been getting a lot of small squal type showers off the Atlantic from Jax north to the Ga border. That would seem in line with a weak storm moving north along the coast east of Melborne as we are west of there.

[AnnularCane]

Has 91L been deactivated? I don't see any notice.

[lester]

Has 91L been deactivated? I don't see any notice.

Not as of 18z, it'll probably be deactivated soon however, just my opinion

[brunota2003]

I *think* it is safe to say 91L is dead. Could not find any deactivation notices...but the BT hasn't been updated since 18Z on the 3rd...

[Mouton]

Barometer steady here for past six hours....according to local forecast potential for rain moved down from 60% to 40% for Sunday.

Say goodnight to 91 Gracie.

[Mouton]

I guess the 40% is right here because it has been raining continuously here for about 3 hours now with some weak T-storms mixed in. No wind, barometer still steady so nothing to worry about.

[tailgater]

91L looking preety good this afternoon, Center of circulation becoming more defined and shear not a big problem, but it's having a hard time with the some land interaction.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes

[HurricaneAndrew92]

91L looking preety good this afternoon, Center of circulation becoming more defined and shear not a big problem, but it's having a hard time with the some land interaction.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes

91L doesn't exist, I think.

[timmeister]

91L looking preety good this afternoon, Center of circulation becoming more defined and shear not a big problem, but it's having a hard time with the some land interaction.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes

91L doesn't exist, I think.

91L No Longer an Area of Intrest @ 2PM EST by NHC

Downgraded to a trough