ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

[yankeeslover]

can someone help me please? I am not really a storm follower(except tracking winter storms in upstate ny,snowmobile rider ) but i found this site last week, and find it great..very informative... but it has grown so large that i cant keep up... I posted a question way back around tuesday when this was still invest 99L. My family and I are flying to Orlando on 8/10 and last week was a bit worried that this might effect me...the members on this board advised me not to worry and to just check back in due time... i have been trying to keep up with this Ernesto stuff but like i said this is tooo big for me right now... im trying to catch up here, Is it really true that from what im reading that this storm is dying? and that it has 0 chance now of touching Florida or the east coast? I just dont feel like reading thru 60 pages of thread this sunday morning....I thank you for the help. and I do have to say, i have found hundreds of blogs this past week online dealing with Ernesto, but the members of this board seem to be the nicest, most informitave ones out there.... Great site.......

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051339
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 27 20120805
133030 1420N 07613W 8430 01569 0097 +170 +153 128007 008 003 002 00
133100 1421N 07614W 8429 01569 0096 +170 +154 129008 009 000 002 03
133130 1423N 07615W 8434 01563 0095 +170 +156 121009 010 001 001 03
133200 1424N 07617W 8425 01572 0093 +170 +157 124008 009 000 001 00
133230 1425N 07618W 8429 01566 0090 +170 +158 131008 008 002 003 03
133300 1426N 07619W 8433 01561 0091 +170 +159 148007 007 000 002 03
133330 1427N 07620W 8428 01567 0088 +173 +160 142007 007 001 000 00
133400 1429N 07622W 8432 01561 0083 +179 +161 131007 008 001 000 03
133430 1430N 07623W 8433 01562 0086 +175 +163 123006 007 000 001 03
133500 1430N 07625W 8426 01568 0086 +175 +165 113005 006 001 002 03
133530 1431N 07626W 8430 01563 0084 +175 +167 111007 008 002 002 00
133600 1431N 07628W 8432 01562 0084 +176 +168 106007 008 002 002 03
133630 1431N 07630W 8429 01563 0081 +180 +168 107005 006 000 001 00
133700 1431N 07631W 8428 01566 0084 +177 +167 106005 005 000 003 03
133730 1431N 07633W 8431 01562 0086 +174 +167 090004 004 001 003 03
133800 1431N 07635W 8433 01562 0086 +175 +166 103005 005 000 001 00
133830 1431N 07637W 8432 01562 0084 +177 +165 103003 005 000 003 03
133900 1431N 07638W 8426 01567 0085 +174 +164 082004 004 000 001 03
133930 1431N 07640W 8432 01561 0083 +176 +164 051003 004 000 000 03
134000 1431N 07642W 8435 01561 0086 +174 +163 051004 004 000 002 03
$$
;

[Sanibel]

This could break open and bust. However my guess is once it gets further west the remnant center will spark another burst and everybody will be back on board.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

can someone help me please? I am not really a storm follower(except tracking winter storms in upstate ny,snowmobile rider ) but i found this site last week, and find it great..very informative... but it has grown so large that i cant keep up... I posted a question way back around tuesday when this was still invest 99L. My family and I are flying to Orlando on 8/10 and last week was a bit worried that this might effect me...the members on this board advised me not to worry and to just check back in due time... i have been trying to keep up with this Ernesto stuff but like i said this is tooo big for me right now... im trying to catch up here, Is it really true that from what im reading that this storm is dying? and that it has 0 chance now of touching Florida or the east coast? I just dont feel like reading thru 60 pages of thread this sunday morning....I thank you for the help. and I do have to say, i have found hundreds of blogs this past week online dealing with Ernesto, but the members of this board seem to be the nicest, most informitave ones out there.... Great site.......

Ernesto is very weak and struggling to survive. Most models and the NHC bring this to Mexico and then, possible, to south Texas, but even that is looking doubtful. I would not worry, but I would also not ask here but rather look at the NHC forecast that shows it's not coming to Florida.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Shuriken]

OK, I submit in evidence the precipitable water image above. -- That IS why I included it in the first place. Do you see any dry air intruding INTO Ernesto? No. It's-just-not-there.

(They throw these satellites up, and nobody uses 'em. <shaking head>)

At this point I think most reasonable people would try and figure out their mistake instead of claiming they know more than multiple pro-mets and the experts at the NHC.

Even they're not certain. "May be partly responsible" implies a great deal of uncertainty, AKA "We don't really know." (In short, you're defending a position the NHC hasn't actually definitively taken.)

ANALYSES AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE IMPINGING ON ERNESTO FROM THE SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR
IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS MAY
BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST DAY

This dry air is nowhere near the LLC of Ernesto, and does not appear to be inhibiting CBs south the LLC, so it is reasonable to conclude that it is not responsible to the lack of convection over the center itself.

Over the last few days, I've discussed the necessity of cap-absence and 200mb exhausting as crucial factors in tropical cyclone intensification to hurricane status; yesterday, Ernesto blew the high-altitude cap and went gangbusters at 200mb; today the cumulus in the LLC aren't even trying to rise, which implies a solid cap over the system.

[Sanibel]

If the shear has displaced the convection to the east and dry air exists to the west then the shear is coming from the dry air direction and therefore has to be partly responsible.


Interesting that GFDL keeps it weak at 25KTs in the Caribbean but strengthens it in the Gulf in the N direction.

[GCANE]

I still maintain that all the dry air enthusiasts (including the NHC, which I am disappointed in) are flat-out wrong (as in: totally 100% wrong) -- the precipitable water associated with Ernesto is even higher this morning that it was yesterday.

This storm is swimming in a boatload of juicy air, but it just won't go UP.

Some other culprit is responsible, and I'm picking high-altitude cap. Yesterday, for several glorious hours, Earnesto flared at 200mb and we thought it really would take off. Today, it's being smothered again by a big invisible blanket.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Maintain all you want. I can't find one met that would agree with you. And until you can provide some sort of proof that "they are 100% wrong" I would watch what you are saying about the NHC and for that matter every other pro-met. I saw it yesterday as did others. You are welcome to your opinions, but I have yet to see you provide any proof!!

OK, I submit into evidence the precipitable water image above. -- That IS why I included it in the first place. Do you see any dry air intruding INTO Ernesto? No. It's-just-not-there.

(They throw these satellites up, and nobody uses 'em. <shaking head>)

The highest levels of juice (60mm in the column) are directly over where the low-level center is (which is well removed from any dry air wrap-around allegedly sneaking through South America on the bottom side...and that's not happening either, as you can see from the loop). Yet the LLC is just a field of swirling cumulus this morning. -- If this was an active storm ingesting dry air, it wouldn't look like that at all. There'd be big CBs and some arcs racing away.

I agree that MIMIC-TPW has a very good presentation of high theta-e air converging into the LLC.

But, if the vorticity column can not expand vertically, Ernie won't spin up.

The inhibiting factor IMHO has been the 200mb PV anomaly he has been dealing with the past few days.

Strong interaction started about 24 hrs ago. It pushes down on the LLC.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

[tolakram]

This dry air is nowhere near the LLC of Ernesto, and does not appear to be inhibiting CBs south the LLC, so it is reasonable to conclude that it is not responsible to the lack of convection over the center itself.

I believe recon has clearly shown, as referenced in the discussion, that they measured dry air. I welcome your discussion of cap and other factors you may think carries more weight than what the NHC mentioned, but I do not welcome arguments about the NHC or other pro-mets being 100% wrong.

I believe the TPW loop does not tell the entire story, just like looking at a water vapor loop does not tell the entire story.

[tailgater]

Pressures are dropping but the winds are still screwy.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051349
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 28 20120805
134030 1432N 07643W 8424 01569 0085 +175 +163 072004 004 /// /// 03
134100 1434N 07643W 8430 01562 0085 +175 +163 085004 005 001 002 03
134130 1436N 07643W 8433 01559 0086 +174 +165 086004 005 000 001 03
134200 1437N 07643W 8431 01562 0086 +170 +167 077004 005 000 001 03
134230 1439N 07643W 8430 01563 0083 +176 +168 065005 006 000 002 03
134300 1441N 07644W 8430 01561 0079 +180 +169 059006 006 000 002 03
134330 1442N 07644W 8430 01562 0082 +180 +170 064007 007 000 002 03
134400 1444N 07644W 8428 01563 0079 +180 +172 058006 007 000 003 00
134430 1445N 07644W 8428 01563 0077 +180 +172 072004 005 001 001 00
134500 1447N 07644W 8429 01562 0080 +179 +173 075004 005 000 002 03
134530 1449N 07645W 8429 01562 0079 +180 +173 066003 004 002 001 00
134600 1450N 07645W 8430 01562 0078 +180 +173 041003 004 002 002 03
134630 1452N 07645W 8429 01562 0077 +181 +173 025003 004 003 002 03
134700 1454N 07645W 8433 01559 0077 +185 +173 021003 004 001 000 00
134730 1455N 07645W 8430 01561 0074 +188 +173 024005 006 001 001 00
134800 1457N 07646W 8430 01561 0071 +190 +173 019006 007 003 000 00
134830 1459N 07646W 8429 01561 0070 +190 +174 015007 007 003 000 00
134900 1500N 07646W 8430 01559 0071 +188 +175 012007 008 003 002 00
134930 1502N 07646W 8426 01562 0074 +181 +176 043007 008 004 002 00
135000 1503N 07646W 8432 01556 0073 +184 +177 046008 008 008 001 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

I would like to go back to this snippet from the NHC disco from Friday 11PM EST:

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND
HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN
ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al ... .010.shtml?

Amazing nobody could explain it but the GFS and ECMWF were able to figure it out. Kudos to both those models in my opinion.

[tolakram]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051359
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 29 20120805
135030 1505N 07646W 8429 01557 0072 +183 +178 035010 011 008 000 00
135100 1507N 07647W 8427 01558 0070 +182 +178 037010 011 005 002 00
135130 1508N 07647W 8430 01556 0069 +184 +178 035010 011 014 001 00
135200 1510N 07647W 8428 01557 0066 +186 +178 031012 014 015 002 00
135230 1511N 07647W 8428 01556 0064 +188 +178 027013 014 018 001 00
135300 1513N 07647W 8430 01552 0064 +188 +178 030017 017 019 000 00
135330 1514N 07648W 8430 01553 0063 +191 +178 035019 019 021 001 00
135400 1516N 07648W 8428 01556 0062 +191 +178 036019 021 024 002 00
135430 1518N 07648W 8430 01551 0061 +192 +178 041022 022 024 002 00
135500 1519N 07648W 8433 01550 0061 +193 +177 041023 023 025 002 03
135530 1520N 07649W 8425 01559 0061 +193 +178 043026 027 024 001 00
135600 1521N 07650W 8430 01552 0063 +190 +179 044026 026 026 001 00
135630 1522N 07652W 8430 01557 0065 +190 +179 045028 028 025 000 00
135700 1523N 07653W 8428 01558 0066 +190 +179 048028 029 025 002 00
135730 1524N 07654W 8430 01557 0069 +189 +178 049028 028 028 001 00
135800 1526N 07656W 8430 01558 0071 +185 +177 051028 028 028 000 00
135830 1527N 07657W 8430 01558 0073 +183 +177 051028 029 028 000 00
135900 1528N 07659W 8429 01560 0075 +180 +175 056029 030 027 000 30
135930 1529N 07700W 8433 01557 0076 +180 +174 057030 030 029 002 00
140000 1530N 07701W 8429 01562 0079 +180 +174 055031 032 030 001 00
$$

[Shuriken]

If the shear has displaced the convection to the east and dry air exists to the west then the shear is coming from the dry air direction and therefore has to be partly responsible.

There is very little shear near Ernesto's LLC right now.

In roughly the same vicinity, Hurricane Gustov went from 45 to 145 in eighteen hours despite 30kts of southwesterly shear in the mid-levels.

Difference? Gustov had a clear pipe to 200mb.

Out in the Atlantic, Florence is dumb-belling around dealing with the nearby SAL (which is way dryer than anything lurking in the Caribbean) and hanging on. It too has no cap problem.

[SFLcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-rgb-long.html

[Shuriken]

This dry air is nowhere near the LLC of Ernesto, and does not appear to be inhibiting CBs south the LLC, so it is reasonable to conclude that it is not responsible to the lack of convection over the center itself.

I believe recon has clearly shown, as referenced in the discussion, that they measured dry air.

They did not find it in the center.

I welcome your discussion of cap and other factors you may think carries more weight than what the NHC mentioned, but I do not welcome arguments about the NHC or other pro-mets being 100% wrong.

Well, OK... May I ask: is it ever possible to disagree with a pro-met (however obliquely and without mentioning any particular name) here?

I believe the TPW loop does not tell the entire story, just like looking at a water vapor loop does not tell the entire story.

In conjunction with visible imagery not depicting any of the classic signs of dry air inhibiting an active storm, it suffices for me.

Ernesto is just not an active storm today; it's sitting there firing up a weak puff here and there but otherwise doing nothing.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051409
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 30 20120805
140030 1531N 07703W 8431 01562 0080 +180 +174 055031 031 030 001 00
140100 1532N 07704W 8430 01563 0083 +177 +174 057030 030 027 000 03
140130 1533N 07705W 8426 01568 0084 +174 +174 059029 030 030 001 00
140200 1535N 07705W 8428 01567 0086 +175 +174 061031 031 030 001 03
140230 1536N 07706W 8429 01567 0087 +174 +174 062035 037 025 000 00
140300 1538N 07707W 8430 01566 0091 +170 +170 063039 040 023 002 01
140330 1539N 07708W 8429 01568 0094 +160 +160 063038 040 026 003 01
140400 1540N 07710W 8433 01564 0092 +170 +170 066036 039 026 002 00
140430 1541N 07711W 8430 01568 0091 +174 +167 065034 036 022 001 00
140500 1542N 07712W 8429 01569 0094 +171 +166 066030 032 021 000 00
140530 1544N 07714W 8430 01569 0095 +170 +165 065029 029 020 001 00
140600 1545N 07715W 8431 01568 0097 +170 +164 063028 029 021 001 00
140630 1546N 07716W 8487 01518 0102 +172 +163 063030 032 021 001 00
140700 1547N 07717W 8558 01446 0105 +174 +162 065032 033 021 001 00
140730 1549N 07719W 8631 01375 0105 +176 +163 069034 035 020 000 00
140800 1550N 07720W 8703 01304 0107 +180 +163 069032 034 020 000 00
140830 1551N 07721W 8775 01232 0107 +183 +164 068029 031 021 001 00
140900 1552N 07722W 8848 01162 0107 +188 +165 068029 029 021 001 00
140930 1553N 07724W 8920 01092 0109 +192 +167 070028 029 022 003 00
141000 1555N 07725W 8994 01022 0109 +197 +168 069028 029 024 001 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

I believe that little swirl racing westward ahead of the convection is what's left of Ernesto's center. Certainly don't see any circulation south of 15N where the models initialized. I'm not so sure Ernesto will recover. Could move into Honduras/Nicaragua tomorrow afternoon/evening and be gone. No north turn into the Gulf.