ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Had to hit up the GOES EAST ftp server for this image. No borders, raw image, and adjusted brightness and contrast.

ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/

[Portastorm]

Wxman57, is Bones in the house? Do I hear him being paged over the loudspeaker?

[tolakram]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051519
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120805
151030 1428N 07645W 9618 00423 0094 +228 +209 113008 009 003 001 00
151100 1429N 07647W 9631 00411 0094 +229 +209 110006 007 005 000 00
151130 1429N 07649W 9628 00414 0094 +225 +209 115008 009 003 001 03
151200 1429N 07650W 9630 00413 0094 +228 +210 098007 008 000 002 00
151230 1429N 07652W 9630 00413 0094 +232 +210 087004 007 000 001 03
151300 1429N 07653W 9630 00412 0093 +231 +210 087005 005 000 002 03
151330 1429N 07655W 9630 00412 0093 +232 +210 085007 008 001 002 03
151400 1429N 07657W 9627 00414 0093 +232 +211 092007 009 001 002 03
151430 1429N 07658W 9629 00413 0092 +233 +211 070007 007 001 002 00
151500 1429N 07700W 9631 00410 0092 +230 +212 072007 008 001 001 03
151530 1430N 07701W 9625 00417 0094 +229 +212 085006 007 005 001 00
151600 1432N 07701W 9628 00414 0094 +230 +213 094005 005 003 001 00
151630 1433N 07701W 9634 00410 0093 +230 +213 109004 005 004 000 00
151700 1435N 07701W 9629 00412 0092 +227 +214 115005 006 007 001 00
151730 1437N 07701W 9634 00407 0092 +230 +214 112004 005 004 001 00
151800 1438N 07701W 9628 00412 0091 +228 +214 120004 005 006 000 00
151830 1440N 07701W 9628 00414 0092 +226 +215 122005 006 007 000 00
151900 1441N 07701W 9629 00411 0091 +226 +215 126005 005 006 002 03
151930 1443N 07701W 9629 00410 0090 +225 +214 129005 005 006 000 00
152000 1445N 07701W 9629 00408 0089 +225 +214 137005 005 008 000 00
$$

[wkwally]

I have been looking at the water vapor image from the NHC it it looks like a lot of dry air. Also I could be wrong but do I see a low forming in the Gulf. if so and with the high in the ATL. this could be a game changer.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Tireman4]

Wxman57, is Bones in the house? Do I hear him being paged over the loudspeaker?

Porta, is snow falling yet? Bones...?

[Ntxw]

GFS, it's done well. What a season that one is having...must be a dream.

[Portastorm]

I have been looking at the water vapor image from the NHC it it looks like a lot of dry air. Also I could be wrong but do I see a low forming in the Gulf. if so and with the high in the ATL. this could be a game changer.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wkwally ... I believe what you may be seeing in the Gulf is a large, broad upper level low. Nothing at the surface.

[ConvergenceZone]

This could break open and bust. However my guess is once it gets further west the remnant center will spark another burst and everybody will be back on board.

Well, I'm not sure, since Ernesto is now Mexico bound, the interest in Ernesto from the board's perspective has died down significantly, so even if the storm rebounds, it might attract a few more poeple back, but that's about it. This board is still going to be pretty quiet even if it becomes a hurricane since most of the board members are from either FL, Tx, LA, MS etc....It's not as if Mexico is less important, it's just that when it goes to Mexico, you don't get the live reporting/media coverage and specific storm reports etc which when all combined builds into a high level of adrenalin which attracts everyone to this board.
Myself, I'm just going to wait for the next flurry of tropical activity which should occur by the end of the month......

I guess the lesson that we all learned from this is, when the GFS model talks, we should all listen...I think we pretty much all ignored it, me included...
Off to run some errands...

[wkwally]

I have been looking at the water vapor image from the NHC it it looks like a lot of dry air. Also I could be wrong but do I see a low forming in the Gulf. if so and with the high in the ATL. this could be a game changer.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wkwally ... I believe what you may be seeing in the Gulf is a large, broad upper level low. Nothing at the surface.

that is why I said that I could be wrong

[jinftl]

no one is mentioning jamaica and they are under a tropcial storm warning (no watches/warnings for Mexico)...luckily they are not getting much of anything to write home about. No mention of Cayman going under a TS watch either. Or Nicaragua. Shout out to all of them!

This could break open and bust. However my guess is once it gets further west the remnant center will spark another burst and everybody will be back on board.

Well, I'm not sure, since Ernesto is now Mexico bound, the interest in Ernesto from the board's perspective has died down significantly, so even if the storm rebounds, it might attract a few more poeple back, but that's about it. This board is still going to be pretty quiet even if it becomes a hurricane since most of the board members are from either FL, Tx, LA, MS etc....It's not as if Mexico is less important, it's just that when it goes to Mexico, you don't get the live reporting/media coverage and specific storm reports etc which when all combined builds into a high level of adrenalin which attracts everyone to this board.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051529
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120805
152030 1446N 07701W 9631 00406 0088 +225 +215 147006 006 007 000 00
152100 1448N 07701W 9630 00407 0089 +225 +215 151007 007 006 001 00
152130 1449N 07701W 9629 00407 0087 +225 +215 157008 009 005 002 00
152200 1451N 07701W 9629 00407 0086 +225 +215 156009 009 007 001 00
152230 1453N 07701W 9631 00405 0087 +223 +215 146009 009 006 001 00
152300 1454N 07701W 9627 00407 0086 +225 +213 145008 009 005 001 00
152330 1456N 07701W 9630 00407 0088 +225 +212 142009 010 007 000 03
152400 1457N 07701W 9626 00410 0087 +225 +211 143009 009 010 001 03
152430 1459N 07701W 9630 00405 0087 +221 +211 133008 009 010 001 00
152500 1500N 07702W 9625 00411 0088 +219 +210 109006 008 010 002 00
152530 1501N 07703W 9629 00406 0086 +227 +208 109006 006 008 000 00
152600 1503N 07704W 9630 00405 0085 +230 +207 114006 006 006 002 00
152630 1504N 07706W 9631 00404 0085 +227 +207 104005 007 009 001 00
152700 1505N 07707W 9629 00405 0084 +230 +208 081005 005 004 001 00
152730 1506N 07708W 9630 00404 0083 +230 +209 058003 005 008 000 00
152800 1507N 07709W 9631 00400 0082 +221 +209 015007 009 010 004 00
152830 1508N 07710W 9630 00400 0080 +228 +209 012008 009 010 001 00
152900 1509N 07711W 9631 00399 0079 +230 +208 015011 012 010 001 00
152930 1510N 07712W 9631 00397 0079 +225 +208 016011 012 011 001 00
153000 1512N 07712W 9633 00395 0077 +231 +208 030010 012 011 002 03
$$

[tolakram]

[Portastorm]

I have been looking at the water vapor image from the NHC it it looks like a lot of dry air. Also I could be wrong but do I see a low forming in the Gulf. if so and with the high in the ATL. this could be a game changer.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wkwally ... I believe what you may be seeing in the Gulf is a large, broad upper level low. Nothing at the surface.

that is why I said that I could be wrong

Understood but your post included a question -- "do I see a low forming in the Gulf" -- did it not? I was merely trying to be helpful and point out what you probably were looking at was the ULL.

[Rgv20]

Some of the 0zECMWF Ensembles still hint at Ernesto possible going as far north as the Lower Texas Coast....but cant ignore the trend as it has been south and more south!


Friday Evening..notice the darker shadings in the Western Gulf.




Saturday Evening...darker shadings in NE Mexico and South Texas.

[tolakram]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051539
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 39 20120805
153030 1513N 07712W 9625 00400 0075 +231 +209 034010 011 008 001 00
153100 1514N 07711W 9631 00395 0075 +231 +210 044009 010 011 000 00
153130 1515N 07710W 9627 00397 0074 +230 +212 069008 008 008 000 00
153200 1516N 07709W 9630 00394 0073 +230 +214 101008 008 008 000 00
153230 1517N 07708W 9633 00391 0072 +230 +215 127009 010 013 000 00
153300 1518N 07707W 9621 00401 0070 +230 +216 141014 017 012 001 00
153330 1520N 07705W 9632 00389 0069 +230 +216 141020 022 015 000 00
153400 1521N 07704W 9627 00393 0069 +231 +217 140025 027 020 003 00
153430 1522N 07703W 9631 00390 0070 +234 +217 139030 031 024 002 03
153500 1523N 07702W 9631 00393 0072 +234 +217 139032 032 028 002 00
153530 1524N 07701W 9633 00395 0077 +227 +217 135033 033 028 003 00
153600 1525N 07700W 9630 00399 0079 +228 +216 132035 037 031 002 00
153630 1526N 07659W 9633 00399 0081 +228 +215 130037 039 034 003 00
153700 1527N 07657W 9627 00406 0084 +225 +213 131040 041 034 003 00
153730 1528N 07656W 9625 00410 0088 +200 +200 128043 046 039 005 05
153800 1529N 07655W 9627 00407 0087 +208 +207 127049 049 041 004 00
153830 1530N 07654W 9628 00410 0092 +207 +203 126049 051 044 005 00
153900 1530N 07653W 9628 00414 0095 +213 +198 125052 053 043 008 00
153930 1531N 07652W 9627 00416 0098 +213 +195 124049 051 043 009 03
154000 1532N 07651W 9625 00418 0101 +203 +194 126043 046 042 009 00
$$

[Lane]

I have a question in understanding the current conditions that Ernesto is experiencing. In 1995 I was in Destin Fl when Hurricane Opal hit. She was moving very fast as well however that did not seem to have any over all affect on her. Heck, Opal was still a cat 1 when it came through Montgomery Alabama. I can’t remember perfectly but I think Opal was moving north at 18 – 22mph. What is the difference in the two storms? One is getting ripped apart because of the forward progress and the other flourished from it.

[tolakram]

[drezee]

Ernesto is open by the recon. No doubt about it. They have not found a NW wind at all. It is not closed...