ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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monicaei
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3241 Postby monicaei » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:38 pm

Quick question from south Louisiana... Is it safe to assume NGOM is out of play at this point?
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Florida1118

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3242 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:41 pm

monicaei wrote:Quick question from south Louisiana... Is it safe to assume NGOM is out of play at this point?

You can never say never in the tropics, but it looks to be very unlikely at this point it will effect the NGOM.

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Last edited by tolakram on Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added disclaimer
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3243 Postby monicaei » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:42 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
monicaei wrote:Quick question from south Louisiana... Is it safe to assume NGOM is out of play at this point?

You can never say never in the tropics, but it looks to be very unlikely at this point it will effect the NGOM.

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Thanks!
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#3244 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:43 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 052139
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 05 20120805
213100 1720N 06552W 4626 06491 0350 -100 -100 031011 014 /// /// 05
213130 1719N 06554W 4544 06628 0356 -100 -100 015007 008 /// /// 05
213200 1718N 06556W 4482 06729 0358 -100 -100 017008 009 /// /// 05
213230 1718N 06558W 4398 06875 0367 -110 -110 024009 010 /// /// 05
213300 1717N 06600W 4341 06975 0375 -120 -120 015009 009 /// /// 05
213330 1716N 06603W 4273 07097 0384 -139 //// 352009 010 /// /// 05
213400 1715N 06605W 4215 07204 0392 -147 //// 340007 008 /// /// 05
213430 1715N 06607W 4163 07300 0397 -153 //// 328005 006 /// /// 05
213500 1714N 06609W 4112 07391 0402 -159 //// 318005 006 /// /// 05
213530 1713N 06611W 4058 07488 0407 -164 //// 305005 006 /// /// 05
213600 1713N 06613W 4014 07571 0413 -172 //// 303006 006 /// /// 05
213630 1712N 06615W 3977 07641 0416 -175 //// 302007 007 /// /// 05
213700 1711N 06617W 3941 07713 0422 -178 //// 290007 007 /// /// 05
213730 1711N 06619W 3926 07738 0423 -183 //// 293007 007 /// /// 05
213800 1710N 06621W 3925 07741 0423 -185 //// 296007 007 /// /// 05
213830 1709N 06624W 3925 07742 0424 -183 //// 288006 006 /// /// 05
213900 1709N 06626W 3926 07738 0423 -185 //// 298006 006 /// /// 05
213930 1708N 06628W 3925 07739 0423 -184 //// 293006 007 /// /// 05
214000 1707N 06631W 3925 07742 0424 -170 -170 279007 007 /// /// 05
214030 1706N 06633W 3926 07741 0424 -170 -170 278007 007 /// /// 05
$$
;
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#3245 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:52 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 052150
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 06 20120805
214100 1705N 06636W 3926 07739 0424 -170 -170 269007 007 /// /// 05
214130 1705N 06638W 3925 07742 0423 -170 -170 269008 008 /// /// 05
214200 1704N 06641W 3926 07741 0422 -170 -170 273008 009 /// /// 05
214230 1703N 06643W 3927 07738 0425 -170 -170 279007 007 /// /// 05
214300 1702N 06646W 3926 07741 0425 -170 -170 279006 006 023 000 01
214330 1701N 06648W 3926 07739 0425 -170 -170 277006 006 023 001 01
214400 1700N 06651W 3925 07744 0425 -170 -170 273006 006 023 000 01
214430 1700N 06653W 3927 07737 0424 -170 -170 274006 006 023 001 01
214500 1659N 06656W 3926 07742 0426 -170 -170 273006 006 023 000 01
214530 1658N 06658W 3925 07744 0426 -170 -170 269006 007 023 000 01
214600 1657N 06701W 3928 07738 0427 -170 -170 284007 007 023 000 01
214630 1656N 06704W 3926 07744 0428 -170 -170 290007 007 023 000 01
214700 1655N 06706W 3923 07747 0428 -170 -170 282006 007 022 000 01
214730 1654N 06709W 3930 07733 0426 -170 -170 285006 006 022 000 01
214800 1654N 06711W 3926 07740 0426 -170 -170 293006 006 022 000 01
214830 1653N 06714W 3926 07742 0426 -170 -170 296006 006 022 000 01
214900 1652N 06717W 3921 07751 0426 -170 -170 296006 006 022 000 01
214930 1651N 06719W 3926 07740 0426 -170 -170 286005 006 021 000 01
215000 1650N 06722W 3931 07732 0426 -170 -170 274005 005 022 000 01
215030 1649N 06724W 3926 07742 0427 -170 -170 271004 004 023 000 01
$$
;
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Weatherfreak000

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3246 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:55 pm

I can say with about 80-90% certainty that NGOM is now fairly safe. Although the blowup of convection is impressive, it would take nothing short of RI to happen NOW and QUICKLY to change this track.

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Last edited by AJC3 on Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: added disclaimer
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3247 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:59 pm

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#3248 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:03 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 052159
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 07 20120805
215100 1648N 06727W 3926 07743 0426 -170 -170 273005 005 022 000 01
215130 1647N 06730W 3926 07742 0427 -180 //// 270004 005 022 001 01
215200 1647N 06732W 3926 07743 0428 -181 //// 267004 004 023 000 01
215230 1646N 06735W 3926 07743 0427 -181 //// 255004 004 023 000 01
215300 1645N 06738W 3926 07742 0426 -181 //// 243005 005 024 000 01
215330 1644N 06740W 3926 07742 0426 -180 //// 242004 005 024 000 01
215400 1643N 06743W 3926 07743 0428 -180 //// 240004 004 023 001 01
215430 1642N 06745W 3926 07743 0428 -180 //// 234004 004 024 000 01
215500 1641N 06748W 3926 07744 0428 -183 //// 224004 004 024 000 01
215530 1640N 06751W 3926 07744 0428 -185 //// 217005 005 023 000 01
215600 1640N 06753W 3926 07743 0428 -180 -180 215005 005 023 000 01
215630 1639N 06756W 3926 07743 0428 -180 -180 214005 005 023 000 01
215700 1638N 06759W 3923 07749 0427 -180 -180 207006 006 024 001 01
215730 1637N 06801W 3925 07744 0427 -180 -180 193005 006 024 000 01
215800 1637N 06804W 3929 07740 0429 -182 -185 187004 005 024 000 00
215830 1637N 06807W 3923 07749 0428 -180 -188 181003 004 024 000 00
215900 1637N 06810W 3928 07740 0429 -180 -191 168003 003 025 000 00
215930 1638N 06813W 3926 07746 0430 -181 -194 163003 003 024 001 00
220000 1638N 06815W 3926 07742 0427 -181 -198 171003 003 024 001 00
220030 1638N 06818W 3925 07745 0428 -184 -197 162001 003 024 000 00
$$
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#3249 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:05 pm

I gotta tell ya something looks a bit interesting however tonight....South Texas is certainly not out of play. Ernesto appears to now only be moving at 17 MPH...slowest he has moved yet. Convection is on the increase and he appears to be gaining some latitude again, which is huge because he has been moving due west when he weakens and move WNW when he's getting stronger. That was the argument for the NGOM threat in the first place.


No reason to stop watching Ernesto tonight. He may yet prove to be full of surprises, and there is still plenty of time for him to make some moves.
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#3250 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:08 pm

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Re:

#3251 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:11 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I gotta tell ya something looks a bit interesting however tonight....South Texas is certainly not out of play. Ernesto appears to now only be moving at 17 MPH...slowest he has moved yet. Convection is on the increase and he appears to be gaining some latitude again, which is huge because he has been moving due west when he weakens and move WNW when he's getting stronger. That was the argument for the NGOM threat in the first place.


No reason to stop watching Ernesto tonight. He may yet prove to be full of surprises, and there is still plenty of time for him to make some moves.


I'd be more surprised if Ernesto gets in the Bay of Campeche at all, much less anywhere close to the south coast of Texas.
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#3252 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:13 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 052210
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 08 20120805
220100 1638N 06821W 3927 07740 0427 -185 -196 125002 002 025 000 00
220130 1638N 06824W 3925 07744 0427 -185 -196 145003 003 025 000 00
220200 1638N 06827W 3924 07744 0427 -185 -198 157002 003 025 000 00
220230 1638N 06829W 3927 07738 0426 -185 -201 150003 003 025 000 00
220300 1638N 06832W 3926 07742 0427 -185 -202 143003 003 026 000 00
220330 1638N 06835W 3927 07740 0426 -180 -204 129004 004 026 000 00
220400 1638N 06838W 3926 07743 0427 -181 -203 117004 005 025 000 00
220430 1638N 06841W 3926 07744 0429 -185 -202 115005 005 026 000 00
220500 1638N 06844W 3926 07745 0429 -185 -200 126005 006 025 000 00
220530 1638N 06846W 3926 07744 0429 -185 -202 121006 006 027 000 00
220600 1638N 06849W 3930 07738 0429 -181 -207 124006 007 026 000 00
220630 1638N 06852W 3925 07745 0426 -180 -214 137006 006 026 000 00
220700 1638N 06855W 3926 07740 0425 -179 -218 138006 007 026 001 00
220730 1638N 06858W 3926 07738 0423 -177 -223 150007 007 027 000 00
220800 1638N 06901W 3925 07742 0425 -180 -222 154007 007 027 000 00
220830 1638N 06903W 3926 07738 0425 -175 -220 147007 008 027 001 00
220900 1638N 06906W 3926 07742 0426 -175 -219 144008 008 027 001 00
220930 1638N 06909W 3926 07742 0427 -175 -206 143008 008 026 001 00
221000 1638N 06912W 3926 07742 0427 -179 -209 146008 008 027 000 00
221030 1638N 06915W 3926 07742 0426 -180 -208 145008 009 026 000 00
$$
;
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#3253 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:15 pm

Dave if you need a break let me know. I can do some for an hour or so.
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#3254 Postby jonj2040 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:18 pm

sorry Dave about the pics I was letting them get a little closer first, but If its best to start now I will.
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#3255 Postby wkwally » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:21 pm

if it does get into south Texas I do not think I need worry as much I would not mind a little rain though
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#3256 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:21 pm

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#3257 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:23 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 052220
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 09 20120805
221100 1638N 06918W 3926 07740 0425 -180 -200 140008 009 026 000 00
221130 1638N 06920W 3926 07740 0426 -177 -210 139009 009 027 000 00
221200 1638N 06923W 3926 07740 0426 -175 -207 138009 009 025 001 00
221230 1638N 06926W 3926 07742 0426 -176 -202 142010 011 026 000 00
221300 1638N 06929W 3926 07744 0427 -174 -211 147011 011 025 001 00
221330 1638N 06932W 3926 07742 0427 -176 -209 149010 011 026 000 00
221400 1639N 06935W 3926 07742 0427 -176 -194 150010 011 026 000 00
221430 1639N 06938W 3926 07743 0428 -176 -209 149011 011 027 000 00
221500 1639N 06940W 3926 07745 0429 -175 -202 155011 011 028 000 00
221530 1639N 06943W 3926 07743 0428 -175 -198 155011 012 027 000 00
221600 1639N 06946W 3926 07743 0429 -175 -205 159012 012 029 000 00
221630 1639N 06949W 3926 07742 0428 -175 -201 158012 012 029 000 00
221700 1639N 06952W 3926 07743 0427 -180 -191 153011 012 029 000 00
221730 1639N 06955W 3926 07744 0428 -180 -190 154011 012 029 000 00
221800 1639N 06958W 3926 07744 0428 -180 -195 147011 011 028 000 00
221830 1639N 07000W 3926 07745 0429 -180 -192 149012 012 027 002 00
221900 1638N 07003W 3927 07744 0430 -180 -193 149013 014 028 001 00
221930 1638N 07006W 3926 07748 0431 -178 -193 142014 015 029 000 00
222000 1638N 07009W 3926 07746 0431 -175 -193 137015 015 029 001 00
222030 1638N 07012W 3926 07745 0430 -175 -195 138015 015 029 000 00
$$
;
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#3258 Postby jonj2040 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:26 pm

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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
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Re:

#3259 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:28 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I gotta tell ya something looks a bit interesting however tonight....South Texas is certainly not out of play. Ernesto appears to now only be moving at 17 MPH...slowest he has moved yet. Convection is on the increase and he appears to be gaining some latitude again, which is huge because he has been moving due west when he weakens and move WNW when he's getting stronger. That was the argument for the NGOM threat in the first place.


No reason to stop watching Ernesto tonight. He may yet prove to be full of surprises, and there is still plenty of time for him to make some moves.



The GFDL is the only model that is showing that right now and it's probably been the worst model with this storm so far. I would be surprised if it verified over the rest of the guidance.
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Re:

#3260 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:31 pm

jonj2040 wrote:sorry Dave about the pics I was letting them get a little closer first, but If its best to start now I will.


Go ahead when your ready Jon. When I doing obs & pics I only look here when I can...see you've already posted one...thnx.
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