ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Yeah I looked at some close range visibles...still highly disorganized and still racing too fast west. Cancel him.

You saw the light before I posted. When recon yesterday morning found a weakening Erbusto, I knew it was over.

First pass of recon found lowest pressure of 1002.4 mbs.

Means little to me. Have they found a decent west wind yet?

That will be the important thing to watch in this mission. We will know soon enough.

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah I looked at some close range visibles...still highly disorganized and still racing too fast west. Cancel him.

You saw the light before I posted. When recon yesterday morning found a weakening Erbusto, I knew it was over.

First pass of recon found lowest pressure of 1002.4 mbs.

Means little to me. Have they found a decent west wind yet?

It isn't a matter of "seeing the light", we are amateurs, our opinions are worth very little. Furthermore, you are from Canada as I can tell, you don't understand how us GOM folk feel. So long as there is a chance...even if it's a 0.01% chance it can hit us, we gotta watch it. We have seen just about anything you can imagine down here.

[artist]

a VDM came in

[cycloneye]

Why they have 1005 mbs at VDM? Here is the lowest I saw on OB 21.

001100 1505N 07910W 8427 01534 0030 +212 +143 083012 017 010 001 00
001130 1504N 07910W 8435 01527 0027 +216 +149 077011 012 005 003 00
001200 1502N 07909W 8425 01536 0024 +215 +155 047005 010 006 003 03
001230 1501N 07909W 8429 01533 0026 +215 +159 320001 004 008 003 03

[jonj2040]

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060039
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 23 20120806
003100 1416N 07954W 8428 01564 0084 +180 +139 348014 014 004 003 00
003130 1415N 07955W 8429 01564 0084 +180 +139 345014 015 008 002 00
003200 1413N 07956W 8429 01565 0085 +177 +138 332017 018 006 003 00
003230 1412N 07958W 8426 01566 0088 +175 +139 331015 017 004 002 00
003300 1411N 07959W 8429 01565 0088 +173 +138 334016 017 002 002 00
003330 1410N 08000W 8429 01565 0091 +172 +138 334017 018 005 002 03
003400 1409N 08001W 8430 01567 0094 +170 +137 332017 017 004 002 00
003430 1407N 08003W 8426 01571 0097 +166 +137 336017 017 001 002 03
003500 1406N 08004W 8430 01570 0099 +167 +136 332018 018 001 002 00
003530 1405N 08005W 8428 01573 0101 +165 +135 336018 019 001 004 00
003600 1404N 08006W 8436 01565 0102 +165 +134 337020 020 003 001 03
003630 1402N 08006W 8424 01578 0098 +172 +134 330018 020 /// /// 03
003700 1402N 08005W 8433 01570 0098 +170 +135 327016 017 005 004 00
003730 1402N 08003W 8428 01571 0094 +172 +136 325015 016 006 002 00
003800 1402N 08001W 8429 01571 0095 +173 +135 327014 015 010 002 00
003830 1402N 07959W 8429 01571 0100 +167 +135 323014 014 009 001 00
003900 1402N 07958W 8425 01576 0099 +170 +135 321014 014 007 003 00
003930 1402N 07956W 8424 01576 0099 +167 +134 311015 016 005 002 00
004000 1402N 07954W 8429 01571 0096 +170 +133 305013 015 008 001 03
004030 1402N 07952W 8429 01570 0096 +171 +132 306013 013 009 001 03
$$

[wxman57]

NW winds continue another 40-50 miles past where they issued the VDM. Not a sign of an LLC there. I think if there is one it's past 80W now. About 35-40 miles west of where the plane passed. But it may not be a surface swirl, as those NW winds wouldn't be expected east of an LLC. It's probably been an open wave all day.

[Texashawk]

So center reformation or badly decoupled storm? Or both?

[littlevince]

Why they have 1005 mbs at VDM? Here is the lowest I saw on OB 21.

001100 1505N 07910W 8427 01534 0030 +212 +143 083012 017 010 001 00
001130 1504N 07910W 8435 01527 0027 +216 +149 077011 012 005 003 00
001200 1502N 07909W 8425 01536 0024 +215 +155 047005 010 006 003 03
001230 1501N 07909W 8429 01533 0026 +215 +159 320001 004 008 003 03

From the Dropsonde
Is a measured value, not an estimate as in OB's, then they use that data.
1005mb (29.68 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 25.5°C (77.9°F) 180° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060049
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 24 20120806
004100 1402N 07950W 8432 01567 0095 +173 +132 303011 013 008 001 00
004130 1402N 07948W 8427 01571 0095 +170 +131 297012 013 006 003 00
004200 1402N 07947W 8429 01568 0093 +172 +131 293012 012 006 002 00
004230 1402N 07945W 8429 01568 0091 +175 +130 288012 012 009 001 00
004300 1402N 07943W 8428 01568 0093 +175 +130 290012 013 003 003 00
004330 1402N 07941W 8426 01570 0092 +175 +130 294013 013 005 002 00
004400 1402N 07939W 8428 01567 0089 +176 +130 296012 013 010 001 00
004430 1402N 07938W 8426 01568 0088 +179 +130 293011 012 009 002 00
004500 1402N 07936W 8429 01567 0090 +175 +131 290010 011 010 002 00
004530 1402N 07934W 8426 01570 0092 +171 +133 284011 011 005 003 00
004600 1402N 07932W 8429 01566 0092 +170 +133 279011 012 007 002 00
004630 1402N 07930W 8428 01566 0089 +173 +134 275011 011 011 001 00
004700 1402N 07929W 8428 01565 0086 +177 +134 278012 012 009 003 03
004730 1402N 07927W 8429 01565 0087 +175 +134 285012 013 008 001 00
004800 1402N 07925W 8427 01566 0089 +172 +135 292011 012 008 002 00
004830 1402N 07923W 8429 01563 0090 +172 +135 282012 013 008 001 03
004900 1402N 07921W 8429 01565 0091 +170 +135 281012 013 008 003 03
004930 1402N 07920W 8431 01562 0090 +173 +135 283012 013 008 002 00
005000 1402N 07918W 8428 01566 0089 +174 +135 278012 012 008 001 00
005030 1402N 07916W 8430 01563 0088 +175 +134 263012 012 007 002 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

[drezee]

NW winds continue another 40-50 miles past where they issued the VDM. Not a sign of an LLC there. I think if there is one it's past 80W now. About 35-40 miles west of where the plane passed. But it may not be a surface swirl, as those NW winds wouldn't be expected east of an LLC. It's probably been an open wave all day.

But 57, your entire ascertion is based on a LLC past 80W. Recon just closed it with radar and a drop at 79.15W. The wind data showed a clean change in wind direction. I have to believe the LLC tucked closer to the convection. Otherwise, Ernesto is done...

Also, in the S pass, the recon found a WNW to WSW (small but true) at the same 79.18 or so with forward movement. That is a clean wind shift..

005000 1402N 07918W 8428 01566 0089 +174 +135 278012 012 008 001 00
005030 1402N 07916W 8430 01563 0088 +175 +134 263012 012 007 002 00

[jonj2040]

[Hurricane Andrew]

jonj, what overlay are you using to get the storm positions?

[brunota2003]

Wow...there are actually west winds! For several hours yesterday, recon couldn't find anything between 180 and 360, at all!

[knotimpaired]

I am not sure how many of you have been to the Yucatan but I started going there in 1989. It is about 10 miles or so, south of Playa del Carmen.

I am not sure where Ernesto will arrive in the Yucatan but our friends that live on the coast there are just about 10' above sea level and that is what I consider on lava/reef rock. I am sure it is called something else though.

They will be lucky that Ernesto probably will be not as bad as many thought but that whole area of the Yucatan is virtually at sea level. My friends happen to be a bit more elevated.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060059
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 25 20120806
005100 1401N 07914W 8429 01565 0087 +179 +134 256011 012 010 001 00
005130 1401N 07912W 8429 01565 0086 +180 +133 252013 013 007 002 00
005200 1401N 07911W 8429 01563 0087 +179 +133 249012 013 009 002 00
005230 1401N 07909W 8433 01561 0086 +178 +134 246013 013 008 002 00
005300 1401N 07907W 8428 01565 0086 +176 +134 249013 013 009 003 00
005330 1401N 07905W 8427 01566 0088 +172 +136 242013 013 009 001 00
005400 1401N 07903W 8428 01567 0091 +170 +137 238013 014 005 003 00
005430 1401N 07901W 8429 01563 0092 +170 +137 240014 014 007 002 00
005500 1401N 07900W 8429 01565 0091 +170 +137 241014 014 006 002 00
005530 1401N 07858W 8429 01563 0088 +170 +136 243013 014 005 002 00
005600 1401N 07856W 8429 01563 0089 +170 +136 247012 013 007 002 00
005630 1401N 07854W 8429 01565 0089 +175 +136 246012 013 005 003 00
005700 1401N 07852W 8428 01565 0088 +172 +136 248014 014 006 002 00
005730 1401N 07851W 8429 01562 0088 +172 +136 244013 014 006 002 00
005800 1401N 07849W 8428 01565 0088 +172 +136 244012 013 008 002 00
005830 1401N 07847W 8430 01561 0090 +169 +136 236011 012 010 002 00
005900 1401N 07845W 8428 01566 0092 +165 +136 235011 012 012 001 00
005930 1401N 07843W 8428 01566 0092 +166 +136 233011 012 011 001 00
010000 1401N 07842W 8429 01565 0093 +165 +136 228011 012 008 001 00
010030 1401N 07840W 8429 01566 0092 +169 +135 230011 011 012 001 00
$$
;

[drezee]

Very clean windfield, look sat the S pass, actually cleanest Ernesto has ever had on the S side!

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing any well-defined center in the plots:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

Let's see what they find when they turn NW next pass...

I think what's left of Ernesto will probably be moving inland into Nicaragua/Honduras tomorrow morning.

Edit to add:
Plane is finding an area of SW winds now. However, no evidence of TS force yet.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060110
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 26 20120806
010100 1401N 07838W 8428 01566 0093 +169 +135 231011 011 014 001 00
010130 1401N 07836W 8430 01565 0093 +170 +134 231010 011 013 002 00
010200 1401N 07835W 8429 01565 0095 +167 +134 227010 011 016 001 00
010230 1401N 07833W 8427 01568 0095 +165 +134 227011 012 015 002 03
010300 1401N 07831W 8417 01577 0093 +166 +135 214010 011 /// /// 03
010330 1403N 07832W 8428 01566 0094 +167 +137 210008 009 013 003 00
010400 1404N 07833W 8428 01568 0095 +165 +138 211008 009 018 001 00
010430 1405N 07834W 8429 01567 0095 +169 +138 198006 006 014 002 00
010500 1406N 07835W 8428 01571 0096 +169 +137 201006 006 012 001 00
010530 1408N 07837W 8430 01570 0098 +168 +137 197006 007 010 001 00
010600 1409N 07838W 8428 01571 0097 +169 +137 197007 007 012 002 00
010630 1410N 07839W 8429 01567 0095 +169 +137 194007 007 016 000 00
010700 1411N 07840W 8426 01568 0094 +165 +137 198008 009 016 000 00
010730 1412N 07842W 8430 01564 0093 +165 +136 207009 009 013 003 00
010800 1414N 07843W 8429 01562 0091 +166 +136 204009 010 013 002 00
010830 1415N 07844W 8430 01560 0090 +165 +136 206009 010 015 002 00
010900 1416N 07845W 8429 01561 0088 +168 +135 213010 011 016 001 00
010930 1417N 07846W 8429 01562 0089 +170 +135 219011 013 019 001 00
011000 1418N 07848W 8428 01564 0091 +167 +135 223010 012 017 004 00
011030 1420N 07849W 8424 01565 0094 +158 +136 222010 011 019 003 00
$$
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