
ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

- littlevince
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:45 am
- Location: Portugal
Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 060239
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 35 20120806
023100 1450N 07933W 8428 01562 0058 +215 +166 003021 026 019 002 00
023130 1450N 07931W 8432 01559 0060 +211 +167 008015 017 015 002 00
023200 1449N 07930W 8426 01564 0059 +209 +169 018009 013 014 001 00
023230 1449N 07928W 8433 01555 0057 +210 +170 050005 007 009 001 03
023300 1448N 07927W 8425 01560 0061 +201 +171 083005 006 007 002 03
023330 1447N 07926W 8425 01560 0061 +200 +172 079006 007 011 000 00
023400 1445N 07926W 8432 01553 0060 +200 +171 054005 007 016 000 03
023430 1443N 07925W 8423 01560 0060 +196 +170 026002 004 013 001 03
023500 1443N 07924W 8424 01561 0067 +189 +169 102002 004 015 001 00
023530 1443N 07922W 8428 01557 0070 +184 +168 181003 004 015 001 00
023600 1443N 07920W 8428 01560 0074 +184 +166 222007 010 015 003 00
023630 1443N 07919W 8428 01562 0078 +182 +164 200014 016 020 003 00
023700 1443N 07917W 8431 01561 0083 +175 +161 196016 017 019 002 00
023730 1443N 07915W 8428 01567 0083 +181 +158 198012 015 018 001 00
023800 1443N 07913W 8425 01571 0085 +182 +155 198011 012 015 002 00
023830 1443N 07912W 8429 01568 0090 +178 +154 197011 012 017 002 00
023900 1443N 07910W 8432 01566 0089 +180 +153 193011 012 016 003 00
023930 1443N 07908W 8424 01576 0095 +169 +153 204015 018 018 005 03
024000 1443N 07906W 8435 01567 0109 +150 +150 198016 019 026 008 01
024030 1443N 07905W 8422 01581 0105 +161 +145 192014 015 023 007 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 060239
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 35 20120806
023100 1450N 07933W 8428 01562 0058 +215 +166 003021 026 019 002 00
023130 1450N 07931W 8432 01559 0060 +211 +167 008015 017 015 002 00
023200 1449N 07930W 8426 01564 0059 +209 +169 018009 013 014 001 00
023230 1449N 07928W 8433 01555 0057 +210 +170 050005 007 009 001 03
023300 1448N 07927W 8425 01560 0061 +201 +171 083005 006 007 002 03
023330 1447N 07926W 8425 01560 0061 +200 +172 079006 007 011 000 00
023400 1445N 07926W 8432 01553 0060 +200 +171 054005 007 016 000 03
023430 1443N 07925W 8423 01560 0060 +196 +170 026002 004 013 001 03
023500 1443N 07924W 8424 01561 0067 +189 +169 102002 004 015 001 00
023530 1443N 07922W 8428 01557 0070 +184 +168 181003 004 015 001 00
023600 1443N 07920W 8428 01560 0074 +184 +166 222007 010 015 003 00
023630 1443N 07919W 8428 01562 0078 +182 +164 200014 016 020 003 00
023700 1443N 07917W 8431 01561 0083 +175 +161 196016 017 019 002 00
023730 1443N 07915W 8428 01567 0083 +181 +158 198012 015 018 001 00
023800 1443N 07913W 8425 01571 0085 +182 +155 198011 012 015 002 00
023830 1443N 07912W 8429 01568 0090 +178 +154 197011 012 017 002 00
023900 1443N 07910W 8432 01566 0089 +180 +153 193011 012 016 003 00
023930 1443N 07908W 8424 01576 0095 +169 +153 204015 018 018 005 03
024000 1443N 07906W 8435 01567 0109 +150 +150 198016 019 026 008 01
024030 1443N 07905W 8422 01581 0105 +161 +145 192014 015 023 007 00
$$
;
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

000
URNT12 KNHC 060247
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/02:34:20Z
B. 14 deg 44 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. 29 kt
E. 287 deg 40 nm
F. 356 deg 33 kt
G. 302 deg 13 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 20 C / 1526 m
J. 21 C / 1525 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 01:31:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 309 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
URNT12 KNHC 060247
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/02:34:20Z
B. 14 deg 44 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. 29 kt
E. 287 deg 40 nm
F. 356 deg 33 kt
G. 302 deg 13 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 20 C / 1526 m
J. 21 C / 1525 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 01:31:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 309 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
Last edited by artist on Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- littlevince
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:45 am
- Location: Portugal
Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 060249
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120806
024100 1443N 07903W 8405 01596 0114 +155 +139 199020 025 047 034 03
024130 1443N 07901W 8450 01550 0116 +149 +135 196023 024 041 021 00
024200 1444N 07859W 8427 01585 0125 +145 +132 195023 025 049 032 00
024230 1444N 07858W 8442 01568 0127 +141 +129 164020 022 052 032 00
024300 1444N 07856W 8438 01573 0134 +133 +125 163013 021 051 033 00
024330 1444N 07854W 8424 01588 0132 +137 +121 173016 019 056 032 03
024400 1444N 07853W 8422 01594 0133 +143 +118 171016 018 053 023 00
024430 1444N 07851W 8430 01582 0126 +152 +117 184016 017 033 012 00
024500 1444N 07849W 8428 01588 0123 +162 +116 181016 017 026 008 00
024530 1444N 07848W 8428 01589 0125 +161 +118 167019 019 020 005 00
024600 1445N 07846W 8415 01602 0123 +163 +120 169015 020 028 006 00
024630 1445N 07844W 8429 01585 0123 +156 +123 173018 021 029 004 00
024700 1444N 07843W 8435 01581 0136 +140 +124 162020 022 028 008 00
024730 1444N 07841W 8425 01590 0123 +160 +123 164018 021 028 006 00
024800 1444N 07839W 8427 01589 0131 +148 +122 173019 021 032 008 00
024830 1444N 07838W 8425 01590 0132 +146 +122 175021 022 032 008 00
024900 1444N 07836W 8429 01585 0134 +142 +122 171020 021 036 012 00
024930 1444N 07834W 8429 01588 0125 +157 +122 161020 021 037 013 00
025000 1444N 07833W 8424 01590 0131 +146 +121 163022 024 037 013 00
025030 1444N 07831W 8432 01583 0132 +146 +121 164023 026 037 013 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 060249
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120806
024100 1443N 07903W 8405 01596 0114 +155 +139 199020 025 047 034 03
024130 1443N 07901W 8450 01550 0116 +149 +135 196023 024 041 021 00
024200 1444N 07859W 8427 01585 0125 +145 +132 195023 025 049 032 00
024230 1444N 07858W 8442 01568 0127 +141 +129 164020 022 052 032 00
024300 1444N 07856W 8438 01573 0134 +133 +125 163013 021 051 033 00
024330 1444N 07854W 8424 01588 0132 +137 +121 173016 019 056 032 03
024400 1444N 07853W 8422 01594 0133 +143 +118 171016 018 053 023 00
024430 1444N 07851W 8430 01582 0126 +152 +117 184016 017 033 012 00
024500 1444N 07849W 8428 01588 0123 +162 +116 181016 017 026 008 00
024530 1444N 07848W 8428 01589 0125 +161 +118 167019 019 020 005 00
024600 1445N 07846W 8415 01602 0123 +163 +120 169015 020 028 006 00
024630 1445N 07844W 8429 01585 0123 +156 +123 173018 021 029 004 00
024700 1444N 07843W 8435 01581 0136 +140 +124 162020 022 028 008 00
024730 1444N 07841W 8425 01590 0123 +160 +123 164018 021 028 006 00
024800 1444N 07839W 8427 01589 0131 +148 +122 173019 021 032 008 00
024830 1444N 07838W 8425 01590 0132 +146 +122 175021 022 032 008 00
024900 1444N 07836W 8429 01585 0134 +142 +122 171020 021 036 012 00
024930 1444N 07834W 8429 01588 0125 +157 +122 161020 021 037 013 00
025000 1444N 07833W 8424 01590 0131 +146 +121 163022 024 037 013 00
025030 1444N 07831W 8432 01583 0132 +146 +121 164023 026 037 013 00
$$
;
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

- littlevince
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:45 am
- Location: Portugal
Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions
Wxman57, what are your thoughts when you look at the latest data ?
(i'm a bit confused with this fast moving relocation to SW of the center)

(i'm a bit confused with this fast moving relocation to SW of the center)

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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145486
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions
littlevince wrote:Wxman57, what are your thoughts when you look at the latest data ?
(i'm a bit confused with this fast moving relocation to SW of the center)
http://i.imgur.com/aZA9v.png
This excerpt from discussion answers your question about that.
ERNESTO HAS CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 270/13 KT. THE DECOUPLED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX HAS
DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND ERNESTO
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND
CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145486
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Advisories
WTNT35 KNHC 060252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO MOVING SLOWER TOWARD THE
WEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 79.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE
WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT45 KNHC 060255
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -85C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A STRENGTHENING
TREND DESPITE THE SURFACE PRESSURE HAVING DECREASED TO ABOUT 1003
MB. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 42 KT AND
THE HIGHEST ADJUSTED-SFMR SURFACE WIND HAS BEEN AROUND 44 KT. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.
ERNESTO HAS CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 270/13 KT. THE DECOUPLED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX HAS
DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND ERNESTO
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND
CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DONE A SUPERB JOB IN FORECASTING THE
RECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OWING TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEING DISPLACED
MORE THAN 60 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOSE MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS TO RE-COUPLE AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AGAIN IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. UNTIL THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 15.0N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.3N 81.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.1N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 17.9N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 20.0N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 11/0000Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO MOVING SLOWER TOWARD THE
WEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 79.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE
WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT45 KNHC 060255
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -85C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A STRENGTHENING
TREND DESPITE THE SURFACE PRESSURE HAVING DECREASED TO ABOUT 1003
MB. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 42 KT AND
THE HIGHEST ADJUSTED-SFMR SURFACE WIND HAS BEEN AROUND 44 KT. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.
ERNESTO HAS CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 270/13 KT. THE DECOUPLED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX HAS
DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND ERNESTO
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND
CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DONE A SUPERB JOB IN FORECASTING THE
RECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OWING TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEING DISPLACED
MORE THAN 60 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOSE MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS TO RE-COUPLE AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AGAIN IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. UNTIL THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 15.0N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.3N 81.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.1N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 17.9N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 20.0N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 11/0000Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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- Category 1
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is ernesto to far south to feel the weakness?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- littlevince
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- littlevince
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:45 am
- Location: Portugal
Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 060300
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120806
025100 1444N 07829W 8426 01592 0134 +144 +122 159028 030 040 014 00
025130 1444N 07828W 8423 01589 0132 +142 +122 161028 030 041 012 00
025200 1444N 07826W 8434 01583 0136 +143 +121 159022 027 046 020 00
025230 1444N 07825W 8426 01589 0138 +138 +120 157022 024 045 020 00
025300 1444N 07823W 8426 01588 0139 +135 +118 155027 029 043 021 00
025330 1444N 07821W 8430 01585 0139 +137 +117 156029 029 038 011 00
025400 1444N 07820W 8429 01588 0137 +141 +116 156027 028 037 016 00
025430 1444N 07818W 8426 01589 0137 +136 +115 155026 026 035 015 00
025500 1444N 07817W 8433 01581 0137 +135 +115 160027 027 032 016 00
025530 1444N 07815W 8424 01592 0135 +142 +114 168029 029 032 010 00
025600 1444N 07813W 8430 01585 0126 +157 +114 163029 031 031 009 00
025630 1444N 07812W 8433 01583 0121 +165 +115 161035 037 033 008 00
025700 1444N 07810W 8427 01589 0126 +158 +117 161033 037 032 008 00
025730 1444N 07809W 8432 01587 0138 +140 +119 159034 036 033 012 00
025800 1444N 07807W 8429 01589 0138 +139 +121 149030 034 032 011 00
025830 1444N 07806W 8433 01584 0131 +149 +121 163029 030 031 009 00
025900 1444N 07804W 8425 01594 0134 +147 +121 149031 032 031 008 00
025930 1444N 07802W 8432 01584 0143 +133 +121 142033 035 030 011 00
030000 1444N 07801W 8427 01592 0146 +130 +121 139034 036 031 010 00
030030 1444N 07759W 8426 01592 0144 +130 +119 136034 035 029 009 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 060300
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120806
025100 1444N 07829W 8426 01592 0134 +144 +122 159028 030 040 014 00
025130 1444N 07828W 8423 01589 0132 +142 +122 161028 030 041 012 00
025200 1444N 07826W 8434 01583 0136 +143 +121 159022 027 046 020 00
025230 1444N 07825W 8426 01589 0138 +138 +120 157022 024 045 020 00
025300 1444N 07823W 8426 01588 0139 +135 +118 155027 029 043 021 00
025330 1444N 07821W 8430 01585 0139 +137 +117 156029 029 038 011 00
025400 1444N 07820W 8429 01588 0137 +141 +116 156027 028 037 016 00
025430 1444N 07818W 8426 01589 0137 +136 +115 155026 026 035 015 00
025500 1444N 07817W 8433 01581 0137 +135 +115 160027 027 032 016 00
025530 1444N 07815W 8424 01592 0135 +142 +114 168029 029 032 010 00
025600 1444N 07813W 8430 01585 0126 +157 +114 163029 031 031 009 00
025630 1444N 07812W 8433 01583 0121 +165 +115 161035 037 033 008 00
025700 1444N 07810W 8427 01589 0126 +158 +117 161033 037 032 008 00
025730 1444N 07809W 8432 01587 0138 +140 +119 159034 036 033 012 00
025800 1444N 07807W 8429 01589 0138 +139 +121 149030 034 032 011 00
025830 1444N 07806W 8433 01584 0131 +149 +121 163029 030 031 009 00
025900 1444N 07804W 8425 01594 0134 +147 +121 149031 032 031 008 00
025930 1444N 07802W 8432 01584 0143 +133 +121 142033 035 030 011 00
030000 1444N 07801W 8427 01592 0146 +130 +121 139034 036 031 010 00
030030 1444N 07759W 8426 01592 0144 +130 +119 136034 035 029 009 00
$$
;
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
"THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DONE A SUPERB JOB IN FORECASTING THE
RECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OWING TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEING DISPLACED
MORE THAN 60 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOSE MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS TO RE-COUPLE AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AGAIN IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. UNTIL THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT."
RECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OWING TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEING DISPLACED
MORE THAN 60 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOSE MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS TO RE-COUPLE AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AGAIN IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. UNTIL THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT."
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-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3470
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
why does it seem that Ernesto is tracking quite fast towards Central America? will it make a more northerly track soon? this might keep digging its own grave if it doesn't turn somewhat north soon.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

- Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Corrected VDM # 17
000
URNT12 KNHC 060303 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/02:34:20Z
B. 14 deg 44 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. 29 kt
E. 287 deg 40 nm
F. 356 deg 33 kt
G. 302 deg 13 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 20 C / 1526 m
J. 21 C / 1525 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 17 CCA
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 01:31:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 37 KT E QUAD 02:56:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 309 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
000
URNT12 KNHC 060303 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/02:34:20Z
B. 14 deg 44 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. 29 kt
E. 287 deg 40 nm
F. 356 deg 33 kt
G. 302 deg 13 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 20 C / 1526 m
J. 21 C / 1525 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 17 CCA
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 01:31:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 37 KT E QUAD 02:56:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 309 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
dexterlabio wrote:why does it seem that Ernesto is tracking quite fast towards Central America? will it make a more northerly track soon? this might keep digging its own grave if it doesn't turn somewhat north soon.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The west-southwest is a southward jog from earlier due to the huge convective burst that took place and has since maintained itself. A west-northwest track should begin soon as Ernesto organizes and begins to feel the effects of a weakness over the Gulf Coast.
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

- Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
000
URNT15 KNHC 060310
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120806
030100 1444N 07758W 8430 01589 0143 +135 +117 137033 034 026 008 00
030130 1444N 07757W 8428 01592 0148 +130 +115 141033 034 028 007 03
030200 1443N 07755W 8427 01595 0138 +149 +113 143035 036 029 007 00
030230 1443N 07754W 8429 01592 0130 +161 +112 144032 036 029 007 00
030300 1442N 07753W 8429 01594 0133 +160 +114 146029 030 030 006 00
030330 1441N 07751W 8431 01594 0143 +144 +116 146030 031 032 006 00
030400 1441N 07750W 8426 01598 0147 +139 +116 148032 033 030 006 00
030430 1440N 07748W 8429 01596 0138 +153 +115 143033 035 027 005 00
030500 1440N 07747W 8421 01605 0141 +155 +117 149031 034 026 004 00
030530 1439N 07746W 8429 01594 0136 +155 +120 145031 033 025 004 00
030600 1438N 07744W 8426 01600 0139 +154 +123 146032 033 026 003 00
030630 1438N 07743W 8430 01596 0137 +156 +125 149031 034 027 003 00
030700 1437N 07742W 8435 01595 0140 +156 +128 147030 032 027 003 00
030730 1437N 07740W 8424 01602 0137 +158 +130 146030 033 027 001 00
030800 1436N 07739W 8428 01606 0139 +156 +132 150029 036 029 002 00
030830 1436N 07738W 8444 01583 0136 +161 +134 158030 036 029 004 00
030900 1435N 07736W 8426 01600 0133 +163 +135 160030 031 029 002 00
030930 1435N 07735W 8429 01599 0135 +160 +136 161028 030 028 002 00
031000 1434N 07733W 8431 01595 0133 +163 +137 160028 029 028 002 00
031030 1433N 07732W 8427 01600 0132 +165 +137 162029 029 027 003 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 060310
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120806
030100 1444N 07758W 8430 01589 0143 +135 +117 137033 034 026 008 00
030130 1444N 07757W 8428 01592 0148 +130 +115 141033 034 028 007 03
030200 1443N 07755W 8427 01595 0138 +149 +113 143035 036 029 007 00
030230 1443N 07754W 8429 01592 0130 +161 +112 144032 036 029 007 00
030300 1442N 07753W 8429 01594 0133 +160 +114 146029 030 030 006 00
030330 1441N 07751W 8431 01594 0143 +144 +116 146030 031 032 006 00
030400 1441N 07750W 8426 01598 0147 +139 +116 148032 033 030 006 00
030430 1440N 07748W 8429 01596 0138 +153 +115 143033 035 027 005 00
030500 1440N 07747W 8421 01605 0141 +155 +117 149031 034 026 004 00
030530 1439N 07746W 8429 01594 0136 +155 +120 145031 033 025 004 00
030600 1438N 07744W 8426 01600 0139 +154 +123 146032 033 026 003 00
030630 1438N 07743W 8430 01596 0137 +156 +125 149031 034 027 003 00
030700 1437N 07742W 8435 01595 0140 +156 +128 147030 032 027 003 00
030730 1437N 07740W 8424 01602 0137 +158 +130 146030 033 027 001 00
030800 1436N 07739W 8428 01606 0139 +156 +132 150029 036 029 002 00
030830 1436N 07738W 8444 01583 0136 +161 +134 158030 036 029 004 00
030900 1435N 07736W 8426 01600 0133 +163 +135 160030 031 029 002 00
030930 1435N 07735W 8429 01599 0135 +160 +136 161028 030 028 002 00
031000 1434N 07733W 8431 01595 0133 +163 +137 160028 029 028 002 00
031030 1433N 07732W 8427 01600 0132 +165 +137 162029 029 027 003 00
$$
;
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