ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113263

My latest weekly prediction with what I think will happen to Ernesto. Basically, I am calling for no hurricane out of this thing, and for it to die out over Central America and/or Mexico. It could be a major flood threat, though.

-Andrew92

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 060300
97779 03004 20147 78009 15200 14033 13129 /2520
RMK AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 19
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

Missions over...

[Dave]

Next Mission - Early Monday Morning - 4:30 AM EDT

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71
A. 06/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0805A ERNESTO
C. 06/0830Z
D. 15.5N 81.2W
E. 06/1130Z TO 06/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Dave]

Thanks all for your help on recon tonight! Appreciated!

[Weatherguy173]

if Ernesnto continues on a W or NW track, could it possibly make it to the E-PAC? (saying that it goes into a low and regenerates that is).

[ozonepete]

if Ernesnto continues on a W or NW track, could it possibly make it to the E-PAC? (saying that it goes into a low and regenerates that is).

It has happened a number of times in the past, but on the current forecast path, or even if it went fairly far south of the forecast track, it would never make it into the EastPAC. Just highly unlikely right now.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking like some pretty strong convection is firing off, appears stable. Clearly he appears to have organized somewhat since this morning, but to what end? Without visibles, I cannot really tell what is going on...i'm reluctant to say he looks good again.

[Andrew92]

My idea is though, it will make landfall too far to the south that it'll spend a bit more time over land. This will cause the convection to weaken until it is a tropical depression, and gets steered by the lower-level flow going more west or south of west. If its remnants eventually emerge around say, somewhere between Acapulco and Manzanillo, it can't be ruled out. The flip side to unfavorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic, is the Eastern Pacific is decidedly a better place for these storms to develop and intensify further.

As for how strong such a storm would get in the Eastern Pacific, I am tending to think no more than a minimal hurricane. But my knowledge is more limited in this basin, and that opinion is really based off of this being north of where Hurricanes Daniel, Emilia, and Fabio were. Fabio was the furthest north, and is still slightly south of this proposed region for re-emerging in the Pacific. It did manage to become a category 2 storm, though, so some decent intensification couldn't be ruled out.

But that's assuming my end scenario even comes to pass. It could just be another crazy idea in a very weather-crazy mind.

Let's get back to the topic on hand. What will ERNESTO do?

-Andrew92

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Looking like some pretty strong convection is firing off, appears stable. Clearly he appears to have organized somewhat since this morning, but to what end? Without visibles, I cannot really tell what is going on...i'm reluctant to say he looks good again.

Yeah we are pretty helpless at night except for the microwave sat passes and they are often few and far between and a pain to search out. Better off going to bed and checking back tomorrow, which is what I'm gonna do now.

[Macrocane]

Yes, you're right, my message was very generalized, and generalizing it's always a stupid think, probably very unfair.
I myself have seen in recent years much has changed, for example, there are hundreds of weather nerds on facebook and twitter today from countries like venezuela, honduras, el salvador, mexico, etc, a lot of people who discuss weather everyday. That's very good.
As far as I know I remember your maps of accumulated precipitation in your country last year, and they look very professional, a sign of a country trying to deal with data and transparency.
I hope you have not misunderstood me, I actually think that many of these countries deal better with disasters than most European countries for example, who don't know how to deal with them because they are rare.

About rain in the mountains, fully agree, a slow moving depression with a lot of moisture can be a killer monster many times worse than a category 5 hurricane. But if the risk can be much higher, it requires an even greater effort in warning systems and prevention.

I didn't misunderstand you, no problem

The convection has persisted for a6 hours now, that's a good sign if it wants to reorganize, I guess Dmax is helping as well. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.

[Hammy]

just came on for first time since about 630, and I'm quite surprised and impressed with whats been going on with Ernesto since then, as I fully expected it to dissipate by now. But with the SW movement im wondering if its going to go in a loop while reorganizing, given the location and by following satellite loop (for several times).

opinion and not official forecast

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensemble Means continue to show Ernesto in the BOC by Thursday Morning....even the 0zNAM has Ernesto in the BOC..

[Rgv20]

0zNOGAPS bombs Ernesto once he is in the BOC and has landfall in NE Mexico.....by Saturday Evening it deepens to 984mb and by Sunday Evening down too 976mb Well considering the NOGAPS has had a norther bias with Ernesto since its formation this solution seems unlikely..

[Rgv20]

:uarrow: And an important thing that is going on is the slowdown.

Looking at Satellite Ernesto really put the brakes on IMO......maybe my tired eyes are playing tricks.

[Weatherfreak000]

No you about got it right, he's slammed on the breaks and is now only going about 13 mph. It's interesting....no dry air around it seems, environment looks good. At this point intimidatingly high SST's.

[Texashawk]

I think a lot of people are going to wake up tomorrow morning and just check the storm 'just for the heck of it'... maybe they'll be rather surprised...

[Hurricane Alexis]

It looks like the LLC isn't exposed that much anymore.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow....any vets still awake? I don't have a solid visible to confirm but i'm wondering if Ernie is trying to pull the LLC East under the convection?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Recent microwave pass

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... hr_05.html

[Texashawk]

What exactly does microwave show as far as the structure of a storm?